NBA training camps open next week, and between now and then, we’ll be pondering 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at what happens if things just go absolutely wrong for them this season.
______________________________
The Celtics have had a long run of some really bad luck.
It started with Isaiah Thomas’ hip injury in 2017. Thomas had been at the heart of a magical run where Boston overachieved for years, earning Brad Stevens wunderkind status in the process, but that all came crashing to a halt. The hip injury, and the tragic loss of his sister, were a dark cloud over the end of his time in Boston.
The next season, Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving were tabbed as Boston’s stars of the future (along with Al Horford, who was already in Boston), but Hayward immediately shattered his ankle in the first game of the season.
Irving’s final season in Boston was what it was, and there’s no reason to reopen that autopsy. Let’s just acknowledge it was a disaster and move on.
The pivot to Kemba Walker looked pretty good until he overdid it in the All-Star game and aggravated a knee issue that still lingers today.
They could use a change in their fortunes.
A little luck can go a long way this season, and a best-case scenario could lead to a surprisingly special year in Boston.
If just about everything goes right, then Ime Udoka will have walked into the Auerbach Center and instantly commanded the room. Boston’s offense will feature passing and cutting. The defense will be connected and swarming and lead to some up-and-down transition opportunities that get guys easy baskets. The reclamations projects will find their shooting touches while the young guys settle into productive roles. Marcus Smart’s passing will dazzle, and his 3-pointers will come more from the corner than above the break.
Nothing ever goes this right, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Juancho Hernangomez and Josh Richardson find their shooting touch, that Smart thrives as point guard, and that role players buy in and produce. Just these things alone would give Boston a big boost, and I haven't even mentioned potential steps forward from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Obviously, that would be great for Celtics fans. It could trigger a challenge to the top of the conference and, if those teams stumble at all, could push Boston past what anyone conceived.
But what’s the long-term impact of a better-than-expected season?
The biggest question Brad Stevens would have to ask himself is “can we do this again, or did we just get really lucky?” It’d almost be like baking a perfect cake the first time you tried. There might be some level of beginner’s luck involved.
Role players would have to be major factors if everything goes right, so the question for the Celtics in this scenario is whether those guys who fed into the success would be able to truly keep it going? For example, if Hernangomez somehow hits 40% 3-point shooting, would Stevens have confidence that he could do it again the next year? Would that warrant an extension?
Also, how much of a role would Dennis Schröder have played in this success? The Schröder situation makes it almost impossible for the Celtics to run it back after a best-case scenario. If he was so good that he influenced major success, then he would likely be sought after at the trade deadline or in free agency. Boston can’t compete with any kind of significant offer, which means even if they struck gold with him, he’d likely be gone at some point.
Everything going wrong for the Celtics could lead to some major changes, but everything going right for them doesn’t necessarily mean the opposite is true of the roster construction. Stevens could see this as an opportunity to sell high on Hernangomez, Josh Richardson, and any of his young talent. Sure, they will have just proven that they work well together, but how far did that get them?
Short of Boston shocking the NBA and winning it all, even an extraordinarily successful Celtics season might lead to them losing to the Brooklyn Nets or Milwaukee Bucks. There might be some temptation to say an experience like that can lead to a deeper push the following season.
But it could also push Stevens to look for better versions of the archetypes that worked in order to keep Tatum and Brown happy and here for the long haul.
If things go great for Boston this season, it will be important to see why they’ve gone great, because unless they end with a parade, the results of this season might not matter when it comes to what Stevens does next.
The 20 questions series:
