NBA training camps open next week, and between now and then, we’ll be pondering 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at their offense, and whether the Celtics can be a good offensive team.
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Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are two stellar offensive players. Both can basically get to whatever spot they want on the floor and get a good shot off. They are Boston’s go-tos when it comes to scoring and each can be trusted to make something good happen most of the time.
And then ...
Well ...
The Celtics should be pretty good defensively. If they’re going to make any noise this year, it’ll most likely be thanks to 95-89 wins instead of 125-119. The rest of their team beyond Tatum and Brown is full of question marks offensively, and could put Boston in a tough spot when it comes to scoring.
It could also work, but a lot more has to go right on this side of the ball for Boston to have a good, functioning offense, never mind one that climbs into the top 10.
Let’s start with the point guard and one of the earlier questions about whether Marcus Smart can run the team full-time. The beginnings of a good offense are in his hands, which means he has to enter this season with a bit of a new mentality.
He’s spent most of his career as an ancillary piece of Boston’s offense, getting shots when other, bigger threats were drawing the defense’s attention. Some of those shots have been problematic, especially if a couple have already fallen. His mentality has been “if they leave me open, I’ll shoot it,” a thought process generally endorsed by Brad Stevens for all of his players.
Now, Smart will have to table some of that in favor of being the team’s primary driver of ball movement. Ime Udoka is trusting him to set the tone for his team on both ends of the floor now, and the last thing he needs is a point guard dribbling into 3-pointers with 19 seconds on the shot clock.
If Smart is running Udoka’s offense the way it’s designed, then it will play to Smart’s actual offensive strength, which is passing the ball. While Smart is not going to blow by many defenders off the dribble, he can still work with pick-setters, especially Robert Williams, to get into the teeth of the defense and make plays from there. He and Williams have run the pick-and-roll beautifully in the past, and that can be part of the foundation of a proper offense for Boston.
That will certainly lead to drive-and-kick opportunities, which can get Tatum and Brown into the mix. Them catching the ball on the move with the defense already reacting to an action will be an important element of a good offense. There will always be isolation opportunities, but Boston’s offense needs to involve more of Tatum and Brown moving first then catching the ball rather than catching and sizing up the defense.
From there, the next, most obvious question is where the Celtics will get the shooting to support all this. Smart’s pick-and-rolls with Williams and Tatum and Brown driving both need some floor spacing to work.
Josh Richardson and Juancho Hernangomez are two wildcards who, as discussed in an earlier question, can take the offense to different heights. If Richardson is actually tabbed as the starter next to Smart, then the Celtics will need him to return to being an above-average 3-point shooter. If he can’t then Udoka might have to go in a different direction.
If he can, then Smart would start the offense with three other perimeter players who need to be guarded and a vertical threat in Williams that would make the defense nervous. Suddenly, Smart’s dribble penetration could become more effective, adding a fifth offensive threat.
Starting Hernangomez could be an option that gives a similar result, as could starting Aaron Nesmith or, if they want to give him another shot at the power forward spot, Al Horford. However Boston gets it, they need someone to step up as an outside threat. In fact, they need more than one person to do so because the bench will need some spacing as well.
Dennis Schröder will be one of the primary threats on bench units, and may even get a crack at carrying the team with Tatum and Brown on the bench. Schröder, a non-shooter off the bench, is what makes me think Horford is better as an anchor alongside him. His ability to stretch the floor will be helpful for Schröder, as will be his passing and defensive intelligence. I like that pairing better than trying Horford as the starting power forward.
Payton Pritchard and Grant Williams will get their crack at being floor spacers, but it’s pretty clear that the early part of the season will involve some mixing and matching to figure out which mix of these players is the right one.
Whether the Celtics can put a functional offense on the floor depends on a few things working out. We can feel good about a couple of them (and which couple probably varies from person to person), but we won’t know how well any of this goes until the experimentation yields results.
If the right things come through, the burden on Tatum and Brown will be lessened, and they could feel comfortable moving the ball like Udoka wants. They could feel good expending energy on the defensive end knowing they can be decoys from time to time offensively.
If things don’t work quite as well as the team had hoped, then the risk for “my turn, your turn” basketball goes up as Tatum and Brown’s confidence in their teammates goes down. They might end up taking defensive possessions off because they’re tired from carrying the team on the other end. It could look a lot like last season.
Nothing ever goes perfectly, but the Celtics could really use some breakout offensive performances this season from their non-Tatum or Brown personnel. No one needs to do too much. They just, as another coach in town would say, need to do their jobs. If they can’t, there’s real risk of a ripple effect that can drag the team down to frustrating levels.
The 20 questions series: