NBA training camps open in the final week of September, and between now and then, we’ll be pondering 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at Josh Richardson and Juancho Hernangomez, and whether these reclamation projects can pan out.
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There’s a formula for an NBA reclamation project. The player has to have had prior success, very recent failures at what made him good, and be young enough to believe in the possibility of a turnaround in a better situation. Usually the bad times last about as long as the good, making the argument for either side of that being the aberration valid.
Teams don’t like questions like that on their rosters, so they tend to discard those players, sort of like furniture out on the front lawn with a “free” sign on them. That’s why Brad Stevens was able to get Josh Richardson for the rest of the Gordon Hayward trade player exception (and Moses Brown), and Juancho Hernangomez for Kris Dunn and Carsen Edwards (we assume, since the deal can’t be officially done until next week).
Stevens dumped two players who never played for Boston, one who was on his way out, and used the rest of a TPE that was about to expire for a look at two guys who have been useful, even good, in the past. This leads to a question that could, perhaps, provide the biggest swing in the results of this season: can these two guys recapture their former glory?
In a best-case scenario, both get back to some semblance of their best selves and Stevens has found at least one starter-worthy player and another as a key off the bench. In the worst, they’re as bad as they were in previous stops, they provide no help for Boston at all, and they have a front row seat for Celtics games until they’re traded or cut.
Worst-case scenarios aren’t ideal, but this one would sting less if it came to pass. Dunn and Edwards were going regardless, and Moses Brown was clearly going to be more of a project than we anticipated when he came over with Al Horford. Boston ending up with nothing when they were going to end up with nothing doesn't seem too bad.
However, a season where two key guys who were counted on to help out at least some ending with those guys being non-factors could have lingering effects on the rest of the team. Every minute those two guys can’t play is a minute added onto someone else’s tab. In some cases, like with young players like Aaron Nesmith, Payton Pritchard, Grant Williams and Romeo Langford, more time on the floor could be good. But adding miles onto Jayson Tatum’s and Jaylen Brown’s legs can be a little problematic, no matter how young those legs are.
Ideally, those guys will be able to give something, and in actuality, at least Richardson can be counted on to be a defensive presence. And even in his most problematic stops with Philadelphia and Dallas, he still averaged 13.7 and 12.1 points, as inefficient as they were.
The odds seem to point to Richardson, who turns 28 tomorrow, achieving some level of productivity. The Celtics might also be counting on his record against Boston as some kind of sign that he likes seeing the green and white when he’s on the floor. Six of his top 10 scoring outputs against Boston have come while with the Sixers and Mavericks, which might be odd considering his best years were in Miami.
The key for finding success with Richardson in the lineup will, obviously, be his 3-point shooting. While the Celtics can expect him to defend and score a few points, where they will have really hit the lottery is if he can get to that 36-38% from deep from his Miami days rather than the 33-34% from Philly and Dallas. If Richardson can hit more consistently from deep rather than be streaky, and if that’s coupled with the defense we’re used to from him, then Stevens will have struck gold.
The shooting is what will make Hernangomez a steal as well. He’s a bit more of a question mark because he’s younger and he hasn’t had quite the same opportunity as Richardson. But history has shown that he generally shoots better the more he plays, and it’s even better if he starts. In 57 career games as a starter, Hernangomez is 101-146 on 3-pointers (39.3%), but he’s 124-384 (32.3%) in 200 career games as a reserve.
Something is going to have to give with Hernangomez. Either Boston is going to have to give in, start him, and play him nearly 30 minutes a game in hopes of harvesting the best possible performance out of him, or he’s going to have to learn how to shoot off the bench.
And this is where the “change of scenery” mentality kicks in. The Celtics might think that being on a team where the second unit actually provides more opportunity for him could be the situation that bucks his historical trend.
If Richardson reaches higher levels than his past two stops, it’s reasonable to expect Ime Udoka to lean towards a defensive starting unit of Richardson, Tatum, Brown, Robert Williams, and Marcus Smart. That is a starting five with the potential to be one of the best defensive starting units in the league. Hernangomez and Horford coming off the bench to give Dennis Schröder room to operate could make the bench somewhat potent as well ... that is, if Hernangomez can find his groove as a reserve.
This Celtics roster is full of “ifs,” making it one of the more high-variance teams we’ve seen here in a while. If a few things click, they could be in the mix for home court in the first round of the playoffs. If they don’t, they could be back in the play-in tournament.
At the heart of that is the production of the reclamation projects. Nabbing Richardson and Hernangomez for virtually nothing could be part of a path that gets Brad Stevens executive of the year votes. They could also be two of his swings and misses. How much they can support Tatum and Brown and give Boston viable, meaningful minutes could determine the future of this season, and, potentially, give Boston two players of value moving forward.
The 20 questions series: