NBA training camps open in the final week of September, and between now and then, we’ll be pondering 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at Al Horford, and what he might bring Boston in his second go-’round.
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Here’s a fun fact you might not have realized: Al Horford averaged more points in Oklahoma City (14.2 per game) than in any of his three seasons with the Celtics (14.0, 12.9, 13.6). In fact, if you standardized the numbers, his points per-36 minutes (18.3) were his highest since his 2013-14 season (20.2). His highest points per-36 minutes in Boston was 16.9 in his final year.
Horford was good this past season.
Granted it was only 28 games, but part of the reason the Thunder shut Horford down was because he was helping them win too much. Horford was on the floor for half of the Thunder’s 22 wins while playing in about 38% of their games. Thunder boss Sam Presti might be kicking himself for not doing it sooner considering his tanking wasn’t good enough for a top five pick in this past draft.
Horford has always been stronger than people give him credit for, but as he ages, he’s moving further away from the basket. In all but his final year in Atlanta, at least 96% of his shots were 2-pointers. In Boston, he hovered around 70% as he stepped behind the 3-point line more often. Last season in Oklahoma City, it dropped to 57.8%.
Just 17% of his shots came within three feet of the basket, the lowest point of his career (though not significantly lower than his Boston days where those percentages were 21.3%, 19.8%, and 24.2%).
Horford is more of a perimeter player than ever, and chances are his days of playing 30 minutes per game are over. At 35 years old, Horford is well past his peak years. He has a knee issue that keeps flaring up and, well, he just can’t keep up with the kids quite like he used to. But Horford’s game has aged well, and his ability to hit 3-pointers still proves quite valuable.
“Al is a guy that gives you some flexibility,” Brad Stevens said after re-acquiring Horford. “You can play big, he can stretch the floor, you can play small and he can be a ball-handler and person you play through and those types of things, and the basket is wide open because fives have to guard him. It just gives you a lot of options.”
Horford is also a smart player who understands how to use angles to make up for some of the lost explosiveness. But how much can Boston rely on him in this second stint? What will he bring in this role, this time, under this coach?
Ime Udoka has an advantage with Horford, having seen everything that didn’t work with the Philadelphia 76ers up close. Considering one option for Boston is to start Horford alongside Robert Williams, Udoka’s experience with Horford-as-power forward will help shape Boston's approach.
If he sees the problem to have been mostly an issue with Horford at the 4, then we probably won’t see that. If he sees it as a fit issue with Joel Embiid, then we might see some experimentation to see if it could work with Robert Williams. And if he thinks the problem was somehow mostly Embiid, then that experiment could get a longer run.
Whether Horford gets minutes at the 4 could also depend on an advantageous matchup where Horford can draw a bigger power forward away from the hoop. With Horford on the perimeter, say, against the Brooklyn Nets if they run Paul Millsap at power forward, lanes could open up and Boston’s attackers could either find runs at the rim or Robert Williams in the dunker’s spot for dump-offs.
The arrival of Juancho Hernangomez could change the initial thinking of how Horford is used. Hernangomez is younger and more spry, but he’s nowhere near the defender Horford is. But lineups with Horford and Hernangomez could provide the spacing Boston is looking for. Some instances of Jayson Tatum running the point with Jaylen Brown, Aaron Nesmith, Horford and Hernangomez could put a lot of pressure on defenses forced to defend everyone on the perimeter while allowing for some switchability on the defensive end.
The key for how Horford is used really comes down to where his floor-spacing is most important. Is it with Tatum, Brown, and the starters, or does pairing Horford with bench units that feature Dennis Schröder make more sense? Having Horford out there with Schröder could help Boston’s new point guard find some lanes to the basket, which is especially helpful for a non-shooter.
Of course, Smart might be considered a non-shooter as well, and crowding the floor with Smart and Robert Williams might be a touch too much for Udoka. Maybe he prefers to start Horford, even if he ends up giving Williams more minutes.
Horford won’t be the same guy he was before he left for the big contract in Philadelphia, but he can give a pretty good percentage of that in this stint. How high a percentage might just depend on the personnel around him and how he’s used.
The 20 questions series: