NBA training camps open in the final week of September, and between now and then, we’ll be pondering 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at the rest of the East, and whether there’s a path out of it.
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Halfway through our questions about the Celtics and there’s one thing we haven’t really considered.
How much will this really matter?
Yeah, maybe this guy can overachieve, and that guy can step up, and another guy can be big off the bench, but where will this get the Celtics in the standings?
These 20 questions will certainly be a factor in the Celtics half of that equation. Certain things going well for the Celtics will give them a better chance at finishing in the top half of the East, but the rest of the conference will have a say in where they finish as well.
Let’s start with the obvious: The Brooklyn Nets are stacked, they got better, and if everything goes the way it should, they’re going to Deion Sanders high-step dance their way to a title. They added Patty Mills to highlight some upgrades around the edges and they might even be able to get some help from rookie Cam Thomas, who fits right into their iso-scoring mold.
The only question about the Nets is their health, but it’s a legitimate one. Kevin Durant carried the team deep into the summer and played full games to keep the Nets alive. He then turned around and carried Team USA to a gold medal, putting an added toll on his body.
Durant’s recovery from his torn Achilles is beyond stunning. The load he put on his body after his return almost feels impossible, yet he was still the best player on the planet. He turns 33 later this month, and the combination of that with everything else is enough to make one wonder when the slowdown will commence.
Beyond that, Kyrie Irving and James Harden have their own history of injuries and absences, so it’s no lock that they stay healthy for a whole season. The biggest question for the Nets is whether they can all be healthy at the same time when it matters.
The defending champion Milwaukee Bucks might get a little ticked by consistently being relegated to second behind the Nets when it comes to analysis, but they’re still among the league’s elite. Their biggest question is how much of a championship hangover they’ll suffer, considering that two of their three main players also had a deep run with Team USA.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday will be excused if they’re still on vacation considering the toll they put on themselves. However, that will put them a little behind when the season starts. It will not be shocking to see the Bucks coast a little early and then pick up the pace as the season rolls on.
They’ve won a title. They know what it takes. They’ve gone from the shakiest good team in the league to champions, so they can enter the playoffs next spring with some added confidence. Maybe that will make them the second seed. Or maybe they’ll drop a spot or two below that and there will be an opportunity for someone else to seize.
The Philadelphia 76ers are the third of the East’s top triumvirate, though they have the biggest question of all.
Where does Ben Simmons go?
He’s done in Philadelphia. That relationship is over, despite any posturing from either side. Daryl Morey wants a return befitting a young superstar, but the rest of the league knows that Morey’s hand will be forced at some point. The chances of him getting an All-Star in return are fading.
Still, for all his flaws, Simmons is a floor-raiser for many teams. There are teams who can convince themselves Simmons can fit in their system, and his elite talents will be accentuated while his unwillingness to shoot can be mitigated.
Philly will get something good for him, just not what they wanted. There are two paths for the Sixers in a Simmons trade: another All-Star next to Joel Embiid, or a ton of shooting around Embiid. If the All-Star path is out of the question, then Philly needs to find as much shooting as possible to fully unleash their one remaining superstar.
Maybe a deal with the Sacramento Kings to get Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes will help Philly almost recreate early Dwight Howard in Orlando vibes. Those three with Tobias Harris certainly would score a lot and Embiid would be enough of a rim deterrent to lift the team’s defensive drop-off.
The Sixers will certainly still be in the mix of good teams either way, but how they resolve this issue will tell how much of an opening there is for Boston and other teams beyond the top two.
The Celtics are in the next group of teams fighting for one of the remaining three spots outside of the play-in tournament. Miami, Atlanta, and New York seem to be in that mix as well, with Indiana, Charlotte, Chicago, and maybe even Washington in a group below.
Miami added Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker. Lowry is entering Chris Paul “how is he still doing this” territory, but he keeps making a major impact. If he can continue to do so on a new team, then the Heat will be serious challengers for home court in the first round of the playoffs. If Bam Adebayo takes another step forward, and if Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro can be big contributors, they can vault to the top of this tier.
Atlanta made a surprising run in the playoffs last season. This year we’ll get to see how real that was. Trae Young will have to adjust to a change in foul-calling that will no longer reward a lot of his grifting. I’m curious to see how his drives end if he’s not drawing a lot of those awkward fouls. It will also be interesting to see if Nate McMillan’s magic can continue with the Hawks. Having Bogdan Bogdanovic for a full season will help.
New York was also surprising last season, but they are one of the most curious teams in the conference. Is Julius Randle an All-NBA player now, or was that a one-off? Where does the defense stand with Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier on the floor? A lot of what the Knicks were built on last season has changed. How will they look because of that?
All three of those teams could vault above Boston if some mix of things going right for them and things going wrong for Boston manifests. As much as the high-end results for the Celtics can push them up to fourth or even third, the low-end results can easily drop them to seventh. Miami, Atlanta, and New York all being good this season is very conceivable, meaning the margin for error is a lot smaller for the Celtics.
Even there, there’s competition. The Indiana Pacers were hit by injuries and a terrible coaching situation. Now they have Rick Carlisle and, they hope, a clean injury slate that includes a full season of Caris LeVert. Charlotte is a fast-paced, fun team that can be dangerous, especially if LaMelo Ball continues growing. Washington has new talent that, if it connects with Bradley Beal, will make some noise.
This isn’t the “Least-ern Conference” of days gone by. The East has the league’s defending champions, its super-team, and a handful of teams that can be really good. If Boston is going to surprise people this season, they’ll need a lot to go right, and some things to go wrong for someone else.
Every NBA season presents that for someone. The Phoenix Suns were the beneficiary of that this past season. The Celtics wouldn’t mind some of that coming their way for a change.
The 20 questions series: