FINAL: Patriots 16, Chargers 3 - Defense stars as Maye to Henry seals the game

Game #18: Chargers (11-6) at Patriots (14-3), 8 p.m.
Location: Gillette Stadium.
TV: NBC-10. Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth (color analyst), Melissa Stark (sidelines).
Radio: 98.5-FM The SportsHub in Boston (Bob Socci and Scott Zolak). **Bedard will be on the postgame show approximately one hour after the game.**
Online: Live Box | Patriots media notes | Chargers media notes | Flipcard
Latest Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 o/u

WEATHER REPORT

It would be really nice except that it's going to get really windy as the game goes on. Advantage New Engla.d

INJURY REPORT

Patriots CB Alex Austin (wrist) has been downgraded to out.

ROSTER MOVES

Patriots

Elevated DL Leonard Taylor III and WR Jeremiah Webb.

Webb's elevation is at least an indication that Boutte is very questionable, if not out for the game.

Chargers

Activated TE Tucker Fisk from Reserve/Injured. Placed WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith on Reserve/Injured. 

Elevated WR Dalevon Campbell and CB Isas Waxter from the practice squad.

Fisk is just a blocking TE, and he could upgrade them there. 

INACTIVES

Patriots

TBA

Chargers

CB Isas Waxter
S Kendall Williamson
OLB Bud Dupree
OLB Kyle Kennard
OT Austin Deculus
WR Dalevon Campbell
TE Tyler Conklin

STATS

BEDARD'S KEYS TO THE GAME AND GAME PICK

KEYS TO THE GAME

Attack the Chargers' offensive line against the run and pass, especially RG Mekhi Becton. Make Chargers one-dimensional.

Keep Justin Herbert in the pocket, don't let him freelance.

Take away Keenan Allen on third down.

Get off to a good start, play the game on your terms.

Know where Derwin James is.

Go big on offense, get the run game going, make Chargers play base against you to keep James out of the box.

Don't be afraid to take the checkdowns, especially on a windy night. Might have to shelve desire for big plays.

I still expect a couple Josh McDaniels specials, mostly targeting safeties Elijah Molden (confusion) and Tony Jefferson (slow).

BEDARD'S GAME PICK

Season: 11-6 straight up, 8-9 spread.

Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 45.5.

A few more thoughts:

- I would not be surprised to see McDaniels try to keep James out of the box as much as possible by going big, imposing the run, and forcing the Chargers to go to base defense out of desperation.

- He will go spread early at some point (he tries everything early to gain information), and target those safeties. The Texans used double posts to confuse them.

- I expect the Chargers' receivers to turtle a bit in the elements catching the ball, but I will point out that the Chargers went to Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, 16-1,3 when it was 15 degrees with a wind chill of 10 to start the game.

- Drake Maye needs to watch himself against this defense, which can go over the line at times.

- Nightmare scenario: Rhamondre Stevenson fumbles again, and Maye throws a confused pick at some point. That's fine, as long as it doesn't rattle him.

I think this is going to be a hard-fought physical game. Could the Patriots win in a blowout? Absolutely. I'd put the game chances as: 50% Patriots win by 3-10 points, 25% Chargers victory, 25% Patriots blowout.

This game is pretty simple to me. I don't see how the Chargers can block anything, which will put it all on Herbert again, and he's not a superhero. I think the Patriots are clunky on offense, but McDaniels dials up a couple of beauties that make the difference in this game. I'm sticking with my original prediction.

Patriots 24, Chargers 17.