NBA training camps open next week, and between now and then, we’ll be pondering 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at what happens if things just go absolutely wrong for them this season.
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NBA writers talk about floors and ceilings as much as anyone on HGTV.
By trying to establish the best and worst-case scenarios, we can get a better look at the more realistic paths for a team. Things don’t usually go all good or all bad, and figuring out where in between things land can set some realistic expectations for fans.
The thing about the Celtics is there’s a lot of room between best and worst. If this was an actual room, the space between the floor and the ceiling would be enough for Tacko Fall to safely play on a trampoline.
The previous 18 questions have set up this final scenario: Ime Udoka doesn't connect with his team in a meaningful way and his message ends up falling flat. The offense devolves into the same stagnant mess as last season while the defense can’t find its cohesion. The reclamation projects both sputter, Al Horford’s age becomes an obvious problem, and Marcus Smart is shooting eight 3-pointers a game and is as inefficient as ever.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will both help Boston win games, but the competition in the east will be too much for Boston to handle in this scenario, and they’ll drop back into the play-in tournament ... or worse.
What happens then?
Chances are Udoka will be fine. He’s just getting started and there’s nothing in his history that suggests he’ll be the next Nate Bjorkgren. If he can’t connect with his players, then it’s the players who might get moved.
The first domino to fall might be Smart in this case. If he’s not going to be the point guard Boston needs, then they might just move on from him and try to find one somewhere else. In a worst-case scenario, Smart would be part of the problem, so moving him would be part of the solution.
There’s a real risk under these circumstances that Jaylen Brown might start getting a little uneasy. He’d have two years left on his contract, just about the time other players unhappy in their situations have begun to maneuver their way out of town. If Boston is back in play-in territory next season, then Brown and Jayson Tatum will both be facing questions about their level of responsibility for it. If Brown feels like he’s taking too much blame and doesn’t see the Celtics’ way out of the situation, he might start to wonder if he’s in the right place.
Smart and Brown could combine to bring in a huge name, which means a worst-case finish could be what slides Boston into a blockbuster deal to bring in a new star alongside Tatum. Brad Stevens would have a busy summer of not only negotiating a huge trade to settle his team down, but also trying to flip his failed reclamation projects into something useful.
That is, if Stevens is still around to make those moves. It’s possible he reorganizes his front office during the season and then parachutes out if none of his moves worked. It could be enough to force him, or ownership, to reconsider their relationship.
There is a lot about this season that can be temporary, including the status of players under contract. There’s no more room for tinkering if everything goes south again, because it means last season wasn’t an aberration after all.
I’m perfectly willing to afford this team the courtesy of enough time to prove that a lot of what happened last season was an aberration. I’ve said for a while that the result we saw may not have been long-lasting; that too much was too out of whack to be of major concern moving forward.
However, I’m also willing to acknowledge that it all might have been real after all, and that too much is too tainted to work moving forward.
In a worst-case scenario, what we saw last season was more revealing than revolting. If a new coach and some new players aren’t able to change anything, then the problem will clearly be more deeply-rooted than we imagined.
This isn’t just a worst-case scenario that ends up with a better draft pick, some shuffling of role players, and a “let’s try better next season.” This is a worst-case that forces major change and threatens to derail a lot of what’s being built.
The 20 questions series:
