FINAL: Divisional Playoff - Patriots 28, Texans 16 - New England returns to AFC title game

Divisional Playoff: Texans (12-5) at Patriots (14-3), 3 p.m.
Location: Gillette Stadium.
TV: ESPN/WCVB-5. Joe Buck (play-by-play), Troy Aikman (color analyst), Lisa Salters and Laura Rutledge (sidelines).
Radio: 98.5-FM The SportsHub in Boston (Bob Socci and Scott Zolak). **Bedard will be on the postgame show approximately one hour after the game.**
Online: Live Box | Patriots media notes | Texans media notes | Flipcard
Latest Line: Patriots -3.5, 40.5 o/u

WEATHER REPORT

Chilly, wintry mix but not substantial snow until later/after the game.

INJURY REPORT

As usual, the Patriots have about perfect health compared to other postseason teams.

ROSTER MOVES

Patriots

CB Alex Austin has been activated to the 53-man roster from injured reserve.

Patriots elevated RB D’Ernest Johnson and DL Leonard Taylor III to the active roster from the practice squad.

Khyiris Tonga is ready to go.

Texans

None 

INACTIVES

Patriots

CB Kobee Minor
OLB Bradyn Swinson
OT Marcus Bryant
DT Eric Gregory
OG Caeden Wallace
TE CJ Dippre
QB Tommy DeVito (3rd QB)

Texans

WR Nico Collins
QB Graham Mertz
RB Jawhar Jordan
CB Alijah Huzzie
OT Trent Brown
WR Justin Watson

This is huge. Brown is the Texans' best pass protector. 2024 second-round pick Blake Fisher will get the call.

STATS

BEDARD'S KEYS TO THE GAME AND GAME PICK

KEYS TO THE GAME

Attack the LT and the interior of the Texans' offensive line.

Make the Texans' have to rely on the pass. Then get CJ Stroud off his spot. He's not good under pressure. He'll kill you if left clean.

Take away Christian Kirk and TE Dalton Schultz on third down.

Stroud likes to use his legs more when he doesn't have Nico Collins.

Don't turn the ball over. Every possession should end with a kick. Patriots do that, they win.

Drake Maye needs to speed up his clock a bit. 

Take shots against CB Kamari Lassiter, FS Jalen Pitre or Myles Bryant.

Go big and stay balanced to help limit Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. Texans are just average on inside runs.

Get Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson isolated against LB Henry To'oTo'o and take a few shots.

BEDARD'S GAME PICK

Season: 12-6 straight up, 9-9 spread.

Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 40.5

This is a very similar game to last week, even though it's a step up in competition: I just don't see a way for the Texans to get to their magic number of 20. They've won their last 16 games if they score 20 points, including 12-0 this week. Maybe if the Texans had Nico Collins (imagine if they had him and Tank Dell?), they might have a chance. The only thing stopping the Patriots from traveling to Denver next week to face Stidham is Drake Maye doing what he did last week in terms of ball security. But considering his track record for making corrections, what are the chances of that, like 100-1? As long as the Patriots get pressure on Stroud, and take care of the ball, I'll be booking travel plans to Denver around 6:15 p.m.

Patriots 24, Texans 17.