Finally, the 2025 NFL season starts.
Who's going to win it all?
Who's going to take home the awards?
Where are the Patriots going to finish?
One little note/reminder ... I'm usually pretty close to the Patriots' record. I've only been off more than a game three times now — the Cam Newton/Covid year, Belichick's farewell debacle, and the Mayo debacle. I think we can all agree that those were unusual seasons. Of course, this one ain't going to be paint-by-numbers either.
2024 Prediction: 6-11. Reality: 4-13
My excuse: I didn't think it was possible to lose at home to Tyler "Snoop" Huntley, and in overtime to Mason Rudolph.
2023 Prediction: 7-10. Reality: 4-13
My excuse: I didn't know the coach wasn't going to talk to the QB, and no one was going to talk to the Successor-In-Waiting. Just Team Dysfunction.
2022 Prediction: 8-9. Reality: 8-9.
Final hit on one! Also had the AFC East standings correct (and the Patriots' 3-3 division record). But I also whiffed on the AFC South, the Raiders - big time - and Bills beating the Packers in the Super Bowls. Oops. Can always get better.
2021 Prediction: 11-6. Reality: 10-7.
My excuse: I didn't expect another loss at Miami to finish the season. I did get their No. 6 playoff seeding right as well.
2020 Prediction: 10-6. Reality: 7-9.
My excuse: Covid. Totally Covid ... and Cam Newton.
2019 Prediction: 13-3. Reality: 12-4.
My excuse: Patriots had just acquired Antonio Brown. Belichick didn’t tell us they were going to play offense with zero tight ends
2018 Prediction: 12-4. Reality: 11-5.
My excuse: Belichick didn’t tell us he was going to put Gronk back on that kickoff in Miami.
2017 Prediction: 14-2: Reality: 13-3 (I also had Tom Brady as the NFL MVP).
My excuse: I wasn’t aware Stephon Gilmore was going to get spun around like a top vs. Carolina.
So with that as a background — I will go more into detail about how I see the Patriots' season going this weekend — here is how I see things playing out this NFL season, and we offer our NFL and Patriots individual award winners. As an added bonus, you get Mike Giardi giving his picks as well:
BEDARD'S PICKS
AFC EAST
Bills 14-3 (6-0)
Patriots 9-8 (3-3)
Dolphins 5-12 (3-3)
Jets 4-12 (0-6)
AFC SEEDS
1. Bills 14-3
2. Chiefs 14-3
3. Ravens 13-4
4. Texans 10-7
5. Broncos 11-6
6. Bengals 10-7
7. Chargers 10-7
* Raiders, Jaguars and Patriots all finished 9-8.
NFC SEEDS
1. Eagles 14-3
2. Packers 12-5
3. 49ers 12-5
4. Bucs 8-8
5. Vikings 10-7
6. Commanders 9-8
7. Rams 9-8
___________________
POSTSEASON
Wild Card
Broncos over Texans
Ravens over Bengals
Chiefs over Chargers
Bucs over Vikings
49ers over Commanders
Packers over Rams
Divisional Round
Ravens over Chiefs
Bills over Broncos
Packers over 49ers
Eagles over Bucs
Championship Round
Bills over Ravens
Eagles over Packers
Super Bowl
Eagles over Bills
___________________
GIARDI'S PICKS
AFC East
Bills 13-4
Patriots 8-9
Dolphins 7-10
Jets 7-10
AFC playoff seeds
1. Bills (13-4)
2. Ravens (12-5)
3. Chiefs (12-5)
4. Texans (10-7)
5. Broncos (10-7)
6. Bengals (10-7)
7. Steelers (9-8)*
*Jaguars also finish 9-8
NFC seeds
1. Eagles (14-3)
2. Buccaneers (10-7)
3. Lions (10-7)
4. 49ers (10-7)
5. Packers (10-7)
6. Rams (9-8)
7. Vikings (9-8)*
*Falcons also finish 9-8
Wild Card
Broncos (W) at Texans
Bengals at Chiefs (W)
Steelers at Ravens (W)
Packers (W) at 49ers
Rams at Lions (W)
Vikings at Buccaneers (W)
Divisional Round
Chiefs at Ravens (W)
Broncos at Bills (W)
Lions at Buccaneers (W)
Packers at Eagles (W)
Championship Round
Ravens (W) at Bills
Buccaneers at Eagles (W)
Super Bowl
Ravens (W) vs Eagles. I can't believe I'm doing this again, but one of these days, I might be right.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NFL AND PATRIOTS AWARD WINNERS
MVP
NFL (Giardi): Lamar Jackson, Ravens.
Had one of the single greatest seasons from a quarterback in history (41 TDs, 4 INTs) and could have easily won last year (Josh Allen got it). The Ravens are better this year. Lamar remains amazing.
NFL (Bedard): Jalen Hurts, Eagles.
I'm not a big fan of his as a QB, but his rushing and rushing TDs — along with leading the defending champs to a No. 1 seed — are going to put him over the top at +1800 odds.
Patriots (Giardi): Drake Maye
If this team is playing meaningful football in December, and has a chance at 10 wins (as some of you think), it has to be Maye. He's got the talent, but has to prove it.
Patriots (Bedard): LB Robert Spillane.
If he goes wire to wire and this defense is good, he's going to be the reason why as the hub of this defense.
Offensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
He is a bad man. Won the receiving triple crown last year (catches, yards, TDs), and unless he pulls a hammy or something, he's going to do it again.
NFL (Bedard): Joe Burrow, Bengals.
The offense is going to have to carry the Bengals again, and if they make the playoffs, it will be because of Burrow.
Patriots (Giardi): TreVeyon Henderson
So I'm not going to do Maye here after saying he's going to be the team MVP. So I'll tab Henderson, who should get somewhere around 15 touches per game between rushes, receptions and kick returns. Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs had 52 receptions in his rookie year. I think Henderson goes north of that.
Patriots (Bedard): Drake Maye.
Josh McDaniels won't be afraid to use Maye's legs, so his double-threat ability will lead to a lot of offense.
Defensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Kyle Hamilton, Ravens
He is a good a chess piece as there is in the league. When teams line up for the draft in April, and look at Oho State's Caleb Downs, they're going to say, "We're not letting him slide like Hamilton did."
NFL (Bedard): Micah Parsons, Packers.
You know this is going to happen...
Patriots (Giardi): Christian Barmore.
I like how he looks. Leaner. Quicker. People forget how good he was in 2023.
Patriots (Bedard): Harold Landry.
Already gave Spillane the Team MVP, so I'm giving this to the guy who will finish with the most sacks.
Offensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Cam Ward, Titans
He is going to make the Titans fun to watch. No fear.
NFL (Bedard): Omarion Hampton, Chargers.
Jim Harbaugh loves the running game, and Hampton will be a big reason why they make the postseason.
Patriots (Giardi): Will Campbell
I did Henderson as OPOY, but Campbell is playing the most important position on offense aside from the QB. He's already a good run blocker, and is an upgrade from Vederian Lowe as a pass blocker. It won't always be pretty, but I like the kid's makeup.
Patriots (Bedard): Will Campbell.
I think Giardi is going to pick Henderson, so I'm going to zag a little. I think Campbell will be good enough and help this team to postseason contention.
Defensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Abdul Carter, Giants
Giants might be sneaky frisky this year, and that pass rush is going to be a big reason why.
NFL (Bedard): Abdul Carter, Giants.
New York is going to have a great pass rush and he looks ready to go.
Patriots (Giardi): Craig Woodson.
Have taken a shine to the kid since the spring. Not sure how many plays he's going to make in year one, but I believe he's going to be where he should be (most of the time).
Patriots (Bedard): Craig Woodson.
He'll be solid and will get a few turnovers as a fourth-round pick who starts all season.
Comeback player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Aidan Hutchinson, Lions
Feels like cheating. He's also going to get himself a massive contract extension. It's good to be Hutchinson.
NFL (Bedard): Aidan Hutchinson, Lions.
This seems like a layup. Was the best defensive player before he got hurt last year.
Patriots (Giardi): Christian Barmore.
Bedard went first (boss before beauty). Barmore is still in the prime of his career, unlike Diggs.
Patriots (Bedard): Stefon Diggs.
If he lasts the whole season and puts up 80 catches, that would be huge.
Coach of the year
NFL (Giardi): Ben Johnson, Bears
He's going to make Caleb Williams realize his potential.
NFL (Bedard): Mike Vrabel, Patriots.
If he can take this team to nine wins and close to the postseason — even with an easy schedule — he's going to get a lot of votes.
Patriots (assistant coach) - Giardi: Doug Marrone and company.
I'm not entirely sold that Marrone is the right guy for this group, so this is more of a "he'd better be good" pick because he's been entrusted with some important building blocks in Campbell and Jared Wilson.
Patriots (assistant coach) - Bedard: Todd Downing, receivers.
He's the runaway winner right now, and I think that group will continue to exceed expectations a bit.