After 20 glorious seasons for the men in the Flying Elvis, last season was, at best, a tractor pull, and at worst a lost season for many involved, including quarterback Cam Newton.
Actually, let's let his father, Cecil Newton, aptly voice-over the 2020 Patriots team highlight film:
"We go back to last season, you were kind of in there playing for kibbles and bits and they giving you a used Civic, the passenger doors kind of dangling off and it needs a tune up ... has 4 cylinders and only 3 are firing. And you tried to drive it and make the best out of it some, to your situation where, you know, you was less than awesome. You didn't awe-struck a lot of people."
Yup, that pretty much describes it. And the defensive side of the ball might have been worse.
And, yet, the Patriots still finished the season 7-9. All things considered, not that bad (we'll ignore that they were actually out of the playoff picture before Thanksgiving at 4-6).
You didn't think that Bill Belichick was going to stand for that, did you?
(We'll also ignore that he allowed his offensive roster to be neglected for years, and the team to get old, slow and expensive to the point the Patriots had to become like every other team and buy themselves out of trouble.)
Of course he wouldn't, not with Tom Brady winning a Super Bowl title without Belichick or the Patriots' offensive system.
Belichick had no quarterback, money burning a hole in his pocket, and a fortunate advantage in cap space compared to other teams due to a global pandemic.
In the span of about six weeks, the Patriots spent more guaranteed money ($175 million) than Robert Kraft bought the team for in 1992, signed upwards of 10 new starters, drafted four impact players, including a first-round quarterback who sent a former MVP (Cam Newton) packing.
Patriots back?
We'll see.
As to how the 2021 season will unfold after all of that ... things look promising on this end.
Do I expect them to be world beaters? No. Will it be hard to unseat the Bills in the AFC East? Yes. But there's a lot to like about this team, which we previously laid out.
Normally, I'm no big fan of teams that make a bunch of changes in the offseason. It does not usually translate to grand success in Year 1 because football is the ultimate team sport and so much among teammates is born out of trust and knowing how the guy next to you is going to react. That's almost impossible to get right in one offseason, especially with today's practice rules. Add in a new quarterback, and an undersized rookie at that?
Good luck.
Like I said, normally.
I still think the Patriots are going to be better a year from now for the reasons outlined above, but this is not the normal rebuild on the fly.
Defensively, the primary pieces added or welcomed back — Matthew Judon, Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Davon Godchaux and Henry Anderson — all have extensive experience in this type of system. Not much learning has to be done. Add in ascending young players like Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger among others, and you have the makings of a really good defense to form the backbone of this team.
Yes, Stephon Gilmore's cornerback position is a worry until he comes back after Week 6 — especially top replacements Jalen Mills and Joejuan Williams — but no team in the salary-cap era is perfect. If the Patriots can't rush the passer, then this could become a huge concern. But they better be able to rush the passer ... with all the assets they've put in there, or else Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo will have some explaining to do.
That kind of defense is one part of the Winning Rookie QB Development Plan.
Part 2 is having one of the best offensive line in the league, and the Patriots will have that even if Isaiah Wynn sticks with his 36.5 percent games played rate to this point in his career (19 of 52 games), because Trent Brown can take over there without much issue. That signing could be huge in more ways than one, no pun intended.
That Patriots offensive line is a run-blocking marvel, and their pass blocking isn't bad either despite Mike Onwenu showing a few rookie issues this preseason. With that run blocking for a stable of good backs, including the underrated Damien Harris, that's the third part of the plan to smooth the on ramp for Mac Jones.
The fourth part is an offensive coordinator like Josh McDaniels who knows exactly how to bring an inexperienced player like Jones along slowly, while also doing enough to win games.
Sure, it's not ideal that Jones is throwing to two receivers and two tight ends who are new to the offense, but they're all learning this together. The five of them can slowly keep building on what they learn throughout the season and, by the second half, hopefully they are firing together and layering concepts in this offense.
The fifth and final part to all this ... is Belichick.
You can throw out all the rookie QB numbers you want, but almost all of them go to teams that were bad the previous seasons, hence the high draft selections.
This is not going to be easy. Sometimes it's going to look downright ugly, and Jones will have his struggles as he adjusts to the NFL and all that entails. But even if the Patriots just stay above .500 into the second half of the season and are healthy, they should be better in the second half.
Just look at the Bucs last year, who were 7-5 and people were wondering if the QB knew how many downs there were. They won eight straight to take the Super Bowl that Belichick should be trying to match within the next three seasons with this group.
Projecting how the schedule breaks down:
vs. Miami ... WIN
at Jets ... WIN
vs. Saints ... WIN
vs. Bucs ... LOSS
at Texans ... WIN
vs. Cowboys ... LOSS
vs. Jets ... WIN
at Chargers ...WIN
at Panthers ... LOSS
vs. Browns ... LOSS
at Falcons ... WIN
vs. Titans ... WIN
at Bills ... LOSS
at Colts ... LOSS
vs. Bills ... WIN
vs. Jaguars ... WIN
at Dolphins ... WIN
That's 11-6, and I think that's good enough for second place in AFC East, one game behind the Bills, and a wild-card spot.
Swing games will be: Saints, Chargers, Panthers, Titans, Colts ... Patriots need to go at least 3-2 in those games.
From there, we'd like to see a playoff win, and a close loss in the divisional round as the base line. That would be progress, and show that the Patriots are back for some time to come.
That was the hope last season, and it did not happen.
2021 is a do-over, and Belichick only gets one before the clock starts ticking.
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NICKEL PACKAGE
1. In companion to our "12 reasons to be optimistic" piece, here's our 12 reasons to be worried, if you're into that sort of thing:
12. Damien Harris has an injury and the other backs aren't as good as Sony Michel.
I mean, the Patriots are one injury away from Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden carrying the rock a lot.
11. Kendrick Bourne has route-running issues.
At the very least, this is going to be a work in progress this year, but he's very talented.
10. Dont'a Hightower isn't the same after year off.
Would be tough for this unit if the heart isn't viewed as a three-down player.
9. Nelson Agholor was a one-hit-wonder in Vegas.
He could just have an East Coast bias.
8. Hunter Henry just can't stay healthy.
Not off to a great start there. Need him in the red zone.
7. Patriots didn't leave enough cap space to add at deadline.
A few moves could be coming to address this.
6. Lawrence Guy got old real quick.
Hopefully he was just pacing himself this summer.
5. Davon Godchaux can't anchor the nose.
If these two things happen and the Patriots can't stop the run, run for the hills.
4. Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo aren't up to the task.
They fell on their faces to finish 2019. This unit is better. Will it finish better? Bill's boys better be up to the job.
3. Stephon Gilmore never plays a meaningful snap this season.
That would be ... an issue.
2. A lot of change rarely works the first year.
"We're on to 2022." Cringe.
1. Mac Jones does damage to left knee; Jarrett Stidham era begins.
I'd rather bring back Cam Newton for this season after Stidham missed a bunch.
2. Sorry, but I thought the Thursday night opener was a terrible, sloppy bore that had a decent, if predictable ending. That game was only great because you were starving for football. It looked like a preseason game, which it largely was. If that's any indication of how teams are going to play with two weeks off after one less preseason game, yikes. Tom Brady got outplayed by Dak Prescott, who looked fantastic. The Bucs better go find some cornerbacks. If the Bucs can't get pressure (Cowboys line was outstanding), that secondary is not good enough as-is.
3. My NFL predictions:
AFC
1. Chiefs
2. Ravens
3. Bills
4. Titans
5. Browns
6. Patriots
7. Chargers
Ravens over Chargers; Pats over Bills; Browns over Titans.
Chiefs over Pats; Browns over Ravens.
Chiefs over Browns.
NFC
1. Bucs
2. Packers
3. 49ers
4. Washington
5. Rams
6. Seahawks
7. Saints
Packers over Saints; 49ers over Seahawks; Rams over Washington.
Bucs over Rams; 49ers over Packers.
Bucs over 49ers - Belichick QB Bowl.
Super Bowl LVI: Chiefs 31, Bucs 20.
4. RIP, Sam "Bam" Cunningham, one of the great players in Patriots franchise history, and the team's all-time leading rusher. “We are deeply saddened to learn of yet another loss to the Patriots family this week and our hearts ache for Sam Cunningham’s family and all who are mourning his passing today,” said Patriots Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft. “Sam ‘Bam’ Cunningham was one of my favorite players throughout the ‘70s and my sons all loved him. After I bought the team in 1994, it was my honor to welcome him back to the team on multiple occasions, recognizing him as a 50th anniversary team member and again for his induction into the Patriots Hall of Fame. As much as I admired him as a player, my affection for him only grew after spending time with him and learning more about him as a person. He made a tremendous impact, both on and off the field, and was beloved by his teammates."
5. My BetUs.com Picks ... think I'm going to give you my Patriots pick each week, and three best bets this year. This Week 1 could be a trainwreck if Bucs-Cowboys was any indication.
Patriots (-3) 27, Dolphins 17
Washington (-1) over Chargers
49ers (-9) over Lions
Panthers (-3.5) over Jets