Finally, the 2024 NFL season starts.
Who's going to win it all?
Who's going to take home the awards?
Where are the Patriots going to finish?
One little note/reminder ... I'm usually pretty close to the Patriots' record. I've only been off more than a game twice — the Cam Newton/Covid year, and Belichick's farewell debacle. I think we can all agree those were unusual seasons. Of course, this one ain't going to be paint by numbers either.
2023 Prediction: 7-10. Reality: 4-13
My excuse: I didn't know the coach wasn't going to talk to the QB, and no one was going to talk to the Successor-In-Waiting. Just Team Dysfunction.
2022 Prediction: 8-9. Reality: 8-9.
Final hit on one! Also had the AFC East standings correct (and the Patriots' 3-3 division record). But I also whiffed on the AFC South, the Raiders - big time - and Bills beating the Packers in the Super Bowls. Oops. Can always get better.
2021 Prediction: 11-6. Reality: 10-7.
My excuse: I didn't expect another loss at Miami to finish the season. I did get their No. 6 playoff seeding right as well.
2020 Prediction: 10-6. Reality: 7-9.
My excuse: Covid. Totally Covid ... and Cam Newton.
2019 Prediction: 13-3. Reality: 12-4.
My excuse: Patriots had just acquired Antonio Brown. Belichick didn’t tell us they were going to play offense with zero tight ends
2018 Prediction: 12-4. Reality: 11-5.
My excuse: Belichick didn’t tell us he was going to put Gronk back on that kickoff in Miami.
2017 Prediction: 14-2: Reality: 13-3 (I also had Tom Brady NFL MVP).
My excuse: I wasn’t aware Stephon Gilmore was going to get spun around like a top vs. Carolina.
So with that as a background — I will go more into detail about how I see the Patriots' season going this weekend — here is how I see things playing out this NFL season, and we offer our NFL and Patriots individual award winners. As an added bonus, you get Mike Giardi giving his picks as well:
BEDARD'S PICKS
AFC EAST
Jets 10-7 (3-3)
Bills 9-8 (4-2)
Dolphins 9-8 (4-2)
Patriots 6-11 (1-5)
New England will have the sixth pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
AFC SEEDS
1. Chiefs 13-4
2. Ravens 12-5
3. Texans 10-7
4. Jets 10-7
5. Bengals 11-6
6. Chargers 10-7
7. Bills 9-8
* Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos also 9-8.
NFC SEEDS
1. 49ers 13-4
2. Lions 13-4
3. Cowboys 11-6
4. Falcons 9-8
5. Packers 11-6
6. Eagles 11-6
7. Seahawks 10-6
POSTSEASON
GIARDI'S PICKS
AFC East
Jets 11-6 (4-3)
Dolphins 10-7 (3-3)
Bills 10-7 (4-2)
Patriots 5-12 (1-5)
AFC playoff seeds
1. Ravens
2. Chiefs
3. Jets
4. Texans
5. Dolphins
6. Bills
7. Bengals
NFC seeds
1. Lions
2. Eagles
3. 49ers
4. Falcons
5. Packers
6. Cowboys
7. Rams
Wild Card
Bengals at Chiefs (W)
Bills at Jets (W)
Dolphins at Texans (W)
Rams at Eagles (W)
Cowboys at 49ers (W)
Packers (W) at Falcons
Divisional Round
Texans at Ravens (W)
Jets at Chiefs (W)
Packers at Lions (W)
49ers (W) at Eagles
Championship Round
Chiefs at Ravens (W)
49ers at Lions (W)
Super Bowl
Ravens (W) vs Lions
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NFL AND PATRIOTS AWARD WINNERS
MVP
NFL (Giardi): Patrick Mahomes
I won't bet against Mahomes. He, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson have won the last six MVPs. Make it the last 7.
NFL (Bedard): Mahomes.
He's got more weapons this year. Look out.
Patriots (Giardi): Pop Douglas
He's their best playmaker, and while the offense may continue to struggle moving the ball, Douglas can get open in a phone booth (and he'll need to with this offensive line)
Patriots (Bedard): Rhamondre Stevenson
This team has to run the ball to be even decent. Mondre looks trimmed, toned and ready to go.
Offensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Ceedee Lamb, Cowboys
He and Justin Jefferson are going to eat so many targets, the only difference being Lamb's QB is significantly better than Jefferson's.
Patriots (Bedard): Breece Hall, Jets.
If the Jets win the division, it will be through Hall, not Aaron Rodgers.
Patriots (Giardi): Rhamondre Stevenson
After a disappointing season, Stevenson will get a lot of touches and go over a thousand yards.
Patriots (Bedard): Pop Douglas.
If he stays healthy, he's going to be very productive.
Defensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Micah Parsons, Cowboys
He was my pick to win it last year, and while he didn't win, Parsons has been 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in his first three years in the league. Breakthrough forthcoming.
NFL (Bedard): Micah Parsons, Cowboys
With Aaron Donald retired, Parsons is now the most unblockable player in the league.
Patriots (Giardi): Keion White
Far more snaps this year with Matthew Judon gone, and poised to get 8 or 9 sacks based on sheer strength. If some of the other aspects of his work this summer pay off, double digits is not out of the question. Oh, and he's already a good run defender.
Patriots (Bedard): Keion White
He's going to be on the field all three downs and will be his most unstoppable inside on third downs.
Offensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Caleb Williams, Bears
His counting stats may not equal Jayden Daniels, but he'll be more efficient as a passer and the Bears are a better team so...
NFL (Bedard): Caleb Williams, Bears
Breathing new life into that franchise and making them relevant will sway a lot of voters.
Patriots (Giardi): Drake Maye
Maye is going to get in there, and when he does, he'll do some things that have you dreaming of the next 10-15 years with him. He's also going to do some things that make you want to pull your hair out. Welcome to life with a wildly talented but raw rookie QB.
Patriots (Bedard): Layden Robinson.
Polk will be really good but Robinson eventually will be a beast - better than Onwenu when he was a rookie, which is saying a lot.
Defensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Dallas Turner (Vikings)
Brian Flores knows how to get free rushers on a QB, or isolate his edge players in 1-on-1 situations. The rookie out of Alabama will be the beneficiary.
NFL (Bedard): Jared Verse, Rams
Don't feel great about any of them - I think Latu with the Colts is overrated, at least as a rookie - but Verse will get the sack numbers.
Patriots (Giardi): Dell Pettus
Not a lot to choose from here, but the safety had a nice summer and, at the very least, will contribute on special teams.
Patriots (Bedard): None.
It's either Pettus or Marcellas Dial. Pettus has a chance this season, Dial does not.
Comeback player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Aaron Rodgers, Jets
They changed the rules. Coming back from just being a backup (Joe Flacco) is no longer. Rodgers played four snaps last year before snapping the Achilles. If he leads the Jets to the playoffs, as I predict, then this is a no-brainer.
NFL (Bedard): Aaron Rodgers, Jets.
Let me reintroduce myself ... He might not last the entire season, but the guy can still sling it.
Patriots (Giardi): Christian Gonzalez
He's not coming off the field unless he gets hurt again. If he has a semi-healthy season, Gonzalez is a lock.
Patriots (Bedard): Christian Gonzalez.
Who else am I going to pick, Daniel Ekuale?
Coach of the year
NFL (Giardi): Raheem Morris, Falcons
Morris gets the Falcons into the playoffs and gets the award.
NFL (Bedard): Jim Harbaugh, Chargers.
Everywhere he goes, he has an instant impact. Replacing Brandon Staley might be his easiest "challenge."
Patriots (assistant coach) - Giardi: Scott Peters, OL
Peters has a massive challenge in front of him, but as I mentioned earlier this week, I've seen some improvement and expect it will continue in that direction, even if there's a ceiling to the group he's working with.
Patriots (assistant coach) - Bedard: Scott Peters and Robert Kugler, OL
The bar is so low at this point that if they can get this line to be just decent, they'll be walking on water.