Finally, the 2023 NFL season starts.
Who's going to win it all?
Who's going to take home the awards?
Where are the Patriots going to finish?
One little note/reminder ... I'm usually pretty close on the Patriots' record and, until last season, always one game too optimistic. That could be a bad sign if that continues. I've only been really off one time, and that was The Cam Newton Year. As I said previously ... I think we can all agree that didn't really happen and we all blacked out:
2022 Prediction: 8-9. Reality: 8-9.
Final hit on one! Also had the AFC East standings correct (and the Patriots' 3-3 division record). But I also whiffed on the AFC South, the Raiders - big time - and Bills beating the Packers in the Super Bowls. Oops. Can always get better.
2021 Prediction: 11-6. Reality: 10-7.
My excuse: I didn't expect another loss at Miami to finish the season. I did get their No. 6 playoff seeding right as well.
2020 Prediction: 10-6. Reality: 7-9.
My excuse: Covid. Totally Covid ... and Cam Newton.
2019 Prediction: 13-3. Reality: 12-4.
My excuse: Patriots had just acquired Antonio Brown. Belichick didn’t tell us they were going to play offense with zero tight ends
2018 Prediction: 12-4. Reality: 11-5.
My excuse: Belichick didn’t tell us he was going to put Gronk back on that kickoff in Miami.
2017 Prediction: 14-2: Reality: 13-3 (I also had Tom Brady NFL MVP).
My excuse: I wasn’t aware Stephon Gilmore was going to get spun around like a top vs. Carolina.
So with that as a background — I will go more into detail about how I see the Patriots' season going this weekend — here is how I see things playing out this NFL season, and we offer our NFL and Patriots individual award winners. As an added bonus this year, you get Mike Giardi giving his picks as well:
BEDARD'S PICKS
Out from 2022 playoffs:
Chargers out for Jets
Ravens out for Browns
Dolphins out for Steelers
Vikings out for Lions
Bucs out for Saints
Giants out for Falcons
GIARDI'S PICKS
AFC East
Bills 11-6 (4-2)
Jets 11-6 (3-3)
Dolphins 11-6 (3-3)
Patriots 8-9 (2-4)
AFC playoff seeds
1. Chiefs
2. Bills
3. Bengals
4. Jaguars
5. Jets
6. Ravens
7. Dolphins
NFC seeds
1. 49ers
2. Eagles
3. Saints
4. Vikings
5. Lions
6. Giants
7. Cowboys
Wild Card
Jaguars vs Jets (W)
Bengals (W) vs Ravens
Bills (W) vs Dolphins
Eagles (W) vs Cowboys
Saints (W) vs Giants
Vikings (W) vs Lions
Divisional Round
Chiefs (W) vs Jets
Bengals vs Bills (W)
49ers (W) vs Vikings
Eagles (W) vs Saints
Championship Round
Chiefs vs Bills
49ers vs Eagles
Super Bowl
Bills vs Eagles (W)
NFL AND PATRIOTS AWARD WINNERS
MVP
NFL (Giardi): Joe Burrow, Bengals
If the calf is truly fine, he will have another ridiculous year. Maybe not the sheer talent of a Mahomes, Allen, Herbert or Jackson, but mentally, plays the position better than anyone.
NFL (Bedard): Joe Burrow, Bengals
We both agree on this one. Other than the calf - and he will get off to a slow start again - Burrow is primed to have a monster season. His receivers may be broken up after this season.
Patriots (Giardi): Matthew Judon
He got some more guaranteed dollars and he knows that next year is no layup, so I expect another 12-15 sacks and better run defense. His presence also will help Josh Uche on the other side (again). Been a fun player to watch the last two years.
Patriots (Bedard): Hunter Henry
Going to zag a little here. I just don't think the defense is going to be all that impressive given the slate of QBs and offenses they are going to face. I just think Henry will be the one thing that works consistently all season.
Offensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
I don’t know that he’s the most well-rounded of all the great receivers in the league, but I do know that his speed and stop-and-start ability make him a nightmare to defend. He’s aiming for 2k receiving yards. His hamstring (inevitable) and Tua will probably prevent that, but 1500+ is likely.
Patriots (Bedard): Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
This will be a combo pick with Burrow. Joe is the MVP and Chase puts up the stats.
Patriots (Giardi): Rhamondre Stevenson
He’s not only the Patriots best offensive player, but one of their best players period. In the old days, he’s a player you build around. I imagine that this interchangeable RB thing is going to impact him, so enjoy what he brings. He’s a bulldog with a little flash and dash. the best runner they’ve had since Corey Dillon.
Patriots (Bedard): Rhamondre Stevenson
Can't disagree on this one.
Defensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Micah Parsons, Cowboys
This guy is an absolute freakazoid of a player. Can’t imagine he fell out of the top 10 in that draft. Stupid. How many teams that picked before 12 would like a re-do? Half? More?
NFL (Bedard): Sauce Gardner, Jets
Jets are going to be the best defense in the league, and Sauce is the new Revis just erasing receivers.
Patriots (Giardi): Matthew Judon
For same reasons as above.
Patriots (Bedard): Josh Uche
In a contract year, Uche will put up monster stats that are better than Judon's and he will strike it rich in the offseason elsewheree.
Offensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
An intriguing chess piece. Figure he’ll get 7 to 10 carries a game and another 4 to 8 targets. He’s dynamic.
NFL (Bedard): Zay Flowers, Ravens
The BC product is going to have eye-popping stats in that new Ravens defense.
Patriots (Giardi): Demario Douglas
I’m buying all the Pop stock I can buy. And he’s got personality. Maybe they’ll beat it out of him, but he might be good enough that they just live with it.
Patriots (Bedard): Demario Douglas
Might take him a while to get a bigger role, but he's going to deliver in a lot of ways.
Defensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Joey Porter Jr, Steelers
He lands on a good defense with a scheme that will protect him. Porter has length and improving ball skills. 5 or 6 interceptions wouldn’t be a surprise.
NFL (Bedard): Jack Campbell, Lions
Will be a tackling machine for the ascending Lions.
Patriots (Giardi): Marte Mapu
I was tempted to run with Keion White, but I just think his snaps will be limited. Mapu may be a coverage LB to start but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s eating into some of the vets snaps at safety by mid-October.
Patriots (Bedard): Keion White
I'm picking him purely because he was the only defensive draft pick I didn't like because I wanted an OT or TE in the second round. I will definitely be blehhhed on something, and this will be it. What an idiot, Bedahd.
Comeback player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Chase Young, Commanders (but it will actually be Damar Hamlin)
Hamlin will win because his comeback is remarkable but as for who makes the biggest impact, I’m going Young. There’s money on the line. The Commanders didn’t exercise Young’s 5th year option as he comes off a knee injury. That defensive line is one of the best in football, which means Young will get singled up quite a bit. Double digit sacks, here he comes.
NFL (Bedard): Non-Damar Hamlin pick - Lamar Jackson
He was already at a high level when he got hurt last year. Todd Monken's offense will take him to another level.
Patriots (Giardi): Mike Gesicki & Ezekiel Elliott
Both underperformed in their previous locales: Gesicki because of a change in offensive philosophy and Zeke because Tony Pollard is just better. But being a part-timer will suit the veteran RB, and Gesicki will be the red zone threat the Pats offense lacked last year.
Patriots (Bedard): Trent Brown
He was not good last season but seems to be a new dude entering this season.
Coach of the year
NFL (Giardi): Dennis Allen, Saints
We know Allen is an excellent defensive coordinator but in year two of his head coaching reign, he has all the ingredients: easy schedule, easy division, QB with something to prove and high-level talent on the edge, at CB, tackle and WR.
NFL (Bedard): Dan Campbell, Lions
Allen is really my pick given that they get the 3 seed, but I'm going with the guy most media members will want to vote for.
Patriots (assistant coach) - Giardi: Mike Pellegrino, CBs
It has to be. The Patriots will have a fierce pass rush (assuming health) but can Pellegrino get the young corners to play at a high level? Christian Gonzalez will have growing pains, but he’s a smooth operator. If Jon Jones kicks back inside, the slot is handled. That just leaves the other outside corner - be it Jack Jones or Marcus Jones could do the job. Neither had what you call good camps. Jack was hit-or-miss. Marcus just hasn’t established he’s an NFL corner yet. Well Mr. Pellegrino, now’s the time.
Patriots (assistant coach) - Bedard: Will Lawing, TEs
O'Brien's only hire helps make Henry and Mike Gesicki a potent and productive duo, and are the best part of the offense.