NFL Notebook: A way-too-early guess at the Patriots' record after schedule release

Yes, I do season predictions just like everyone else. But my official prognostication doesn't come until right before the season opener — I need to see training camp and the preseason to get a better feel for the team.

So we're a long way off from that.

The good news is I'm usually pretty close, but a tad too optimistic. In the five previous seasons at BSJ, I've been one game too generous four out of five years. And the only miss was the Cam Newton Year. I think we can all agree that didn't really happen and we all blacked out:

2021 Prediction: 11-6. Reality: 10-7.
My excuse: I didn't expect another loss at Miami to finish the season. I did get their No. 6 playoff seeding right as well.

2020 Prediction: 10-6. Reality: 7-9.
My excuse: Covid. Totally Covid ... and Cam Newton.

2019 Prediction: 13-3. Reality: 12-4.
My excuse: Patriots had just acquired Antonio Brown. Belichick didn’t tell us they were going to play offense with zero tight ends

2018 Prediction: 12-4. Reality: 11-5.
My excuse: Belichick didn’t tell us he was going to put Gronk back on that kickoff in Miami.

2017 Prediction: 14-2:  Reality: 13-3 (I also had Tom Brady NFL MVP).
My excuse: I wasn’t aware Stephon Gilmore was going to get spun around like a top vs. Carolina.

So the official prediction will be coming on Sept. 10th, right before the season opener at Miami.

In the meantime, now that the schedule has been released, let's talk through the 17-game slate for the Patriots and come up with a rough estimate before this team does much of anything on the field.

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- Sept. 11 at Dolphins, 1 p.m.

Skinny: The debut of Mike McDaniel as Dolphins coach. Normally that would give me a lot of confidence, but this is not Your Cousin From Boston's Bill Belichick staff. Looks like we're going to have Matt Patricia and Joe Judge firmly in charge of the offense. Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo haven't exactly lit the world on fire running the defense for three years, and Cam Achord's special teams bottomed out last year. McDaniel kept DC Josh Boyer from the Brian Flores regime. Can Boyer snuff out the Patriots without B-Flo? Another big question. And that Miami Gardens sun/heat is absolutely brutal at 1 p.m. in September. Nope, don't like this at all.

Prediction: LOSS (0-1).

- Sept. 18 at Steelers, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: at Bengals.

Skinny: A new QB (Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett) for the Steelers and a revamped offensive line. Defense should be really good. After dropping the opener, and with Baltimore and Green Bay up next, this is almost a must-win for the Patriots.

Prediction: WIN (1-1).

- Sept. 25 vs. Ravens, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: vs. Dolphins.

Skinny: On paper, this should be a really strong team that was just decimated last year by injuries, Covid and Lamar Jackson's inability to stay in the lineup. We'll get an early referendum on whether the Patriots are really faster or not in this game. Expect to see all 23 of their safeties on the field, trying to chase down Jackson.

Prediction: LOSS (1-2).

- Oct. 2 at Green Bay, 4:25 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: at Bucs.

Skinny: The Packers don't have any great receivers after the Davante Adams trade, which is good since the Patriots don't have any great cornerbacks. But the Packers are better as a whole, and they have Aaron Rodgers and you don't. However, that the Packers have a road showdown with Brady the prior week ... that will help New England's chances of pulling an upset.

Prediction: LOSS (1-3).

- Oct. 9, vs. Lions, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: vs. Seahawks.

Skinny: The Matt Patricia Revenge Game. You're all in big, big trouble now.

Prediction: WIN (2-3). (Also predicting Bud Heavies in the end zone club, ala the Jets game last year, after this one.)

- Oct. 16, at Browns, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: vs. Chargers.

Skinny: I'm really digging this conspiracy theory on when Deshaun Watson is going to be cleared to play:

That would mean Jacoby Brissett is the Browns' starter. Nope, that ain't happening.

Prediction: WIN (3-3).

- Oct. 24, vs. Bears, 8:15 p.m. (MNF)

Opponent's previous game: vs. Commanders, TNF ... 10 days off.

Skinny: The 2021 QB Bowl between Mac Jones and Justin Fields. Bears have a new coach in Matt Eberflus. This team is rebuilding with a new GM as well. The Patriots can't lose this game. If they do, look out below. Don't like Chicago playing Thursday before this game ... that will make this more difficult.

Prediction: WIN (4-3). 

- Oct. 30, at Jets, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: at Broncos.

Skinny: Gang Green, after a great draft on paper, is ramping up the talent and it should no longer be a pushover. But I still seriously dislike the Jets' offensive line and that will be the difference in this matchup.

Prediction: WIN (5-3).

- Nov. 6, vs. Colts, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: vs. Commanders.

Skinny: HUGE SWING GAME NO. 1. Considering the tough close to this season, the Patriots need to build up as much momentum as possible. Getting a home W heading into a well-timed bye week, would be a huge boon. The team and the region would be feeling good about themselves. Pats fans will be in full BLEH mode against anyone who has doubted their standing as a contender (conveniently ignoring the annual late-season implosions three years running). Lose this game, to a team that just out-toughed you and has upgraded the QB spot with Matt Ryan, and it's going to be a long bye week. If the Colts still had Eberflus as DC, I would pound the Colts. But now it's Gus Bradley. The Patriots buried his scheme like five years ago. Even Patricia can figure this game out.

Prediction: WIN (6-3).

- NOV. 14 BYE WEEK

- Nov. 20, at Jets, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: BYE (vs. Bills before that).

Skinny: HUGE SWING GAME NO. 2. The bye week is bookended by two games the Patriots need to have. Don't think they can afford to split these games — they need a clean sweep. A young Jets team should be better the second time around, this is in the Meadowlands, and the Jets also have a bye week like the Patriots, so no help there.

Prediction: LOSS (6-4).

- Nov. 24, at Vikings, 8:20 p.m. TNF (Thanksgiving)

Opponent's previous game: vs. Cowboys.

Skinny: No clue about this game with a new coaching staff (Kevin O'Connell, coach; Ed Donatell, DC). Short turnaround for both teams. The site of Super Bowl LII. Hey, maybe Malcolm Butler will get to play this time!

Prediction: WIN (7-4).

- Dec. 1, vs. Bills, 8:15 p.m. TNF

Opponent's previous game: at Lions, Thanksgiving (both on same rest).

Skinny: Well, the Patriots have had a full year since Josh Allen and the Bills whupped their butts twice, so it would be nice to see a different approach ... hopefully. But, now, the Patriots have to prove they can make the Bills punt before anyone should believe they are going to pull an upset.

Prediction: LOSS (7-5)

- Dec. 12, at Cardinals, 8:15 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: BYE (vs. Chargers before that).

Skinny: That the Patriots get their mini-bye week (11 days between games) while Arizona is on its bye evens out any advantage there, and is a plus for New England. Better to get the Cardinals later in the season when Kyler Murray is usually dealing with some sort of injury. 

Prediction: WIN (8-5).

- Dec. 18, at Raiders, 8:20 p.m., SNF

Opponent's previous game: at Rams, TNF. 

Skinny: Tough spot for New England because the Raiders have a 10-day layoff after a tough Thursday night at the defending champions, and the Patriots are coming off a Monday night tussle. However, New England will stay in Arizona so it's a much better situation than normal short weeks. Rest will not be an issue. Josh McDaniels and Co. reunion game. The last time The Visor went against the Hoodie, McDaniels prevailed in overtime.

Prediction: LOSS (8-6).

- Dec. 24, vs. Bengals, 1 p.m. (Saturday)

Opponent's previous game: at Tampa.

Skinny: Patriots are on a short week after two road games, but they get some help with a second opponent traveling to take on Brady the week prior. Those games will take a lot out of a team. All things being equal, the Bengals are the better team. 

Prediction: LOSS (8-7).

- Jan. 1, vs. Dolphins, 1 p.m.

Opponent's previous game: vs. Packers (Christmas).

Skinny: Not giving the Dolphins a sweep with a new coach. Mike McD is no B-Flo.

Prediction: WIN (9-7)

- Jan. 7/8, at Bills, TBA

Opponent's previous game: at Bengals, MNF.

Skinny: Let's be honest, it would be a huge upset if this game means anything to the Bills. They should have a playoff spot and the division wrapped up. That being said, Allen did play 94 percent of snaps against the Jets in last season's finale, but seeding was at stake. And if the earlier matchup makes its three straight wins against the Patriots, I don't see Steaming Sean McDermott wanting to give back an inch to his nemesis.

Prediction: LOSS (9-8)

So, there you have it. Our way-too-early, don't-hold-me-to-it, I'll-forget-it-tomorrow look at the Patriots' schedule.

Just FYI, 9-8 did not make the AFC playoff field last year.

This is one of those rare Patriots seasons where every game is going to be crucial.

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NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Not sure why everyone is surprised that Matt Patricia is the leader in the clubhouse, followed by Joe Judge, to call the offensive plays. I mean, who else was going to do it when Bill Belichick wouldn't pick up the phone to Tuscaloosa ... Nick Caley? Patricia and Judge are going to coordinate the offense together (Patricia - run game; Judge - passing game) with input from Belichick, along with the rest of the staff (everyone has a specific duty with the gameplan). Someone has to call the plays. It's likely to work similarly to the defense since Brian Flores left, with Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo ... which hasn't exactly lit the world on fire.

2. While it was once true that an entertaining broadcast booth was needed to help sell the NFL (think MNF with Cosell, Meredith and Gifford), those days are long over. The game now sells itself almost entirely, which is why I don't get why networks feel the need to pay future analysts like Tom Brady more than they earned playing. No, I don't think Brady will be great at it — he's always felt the need to be liked with his public persona, so I have a hard time seeing him being all that critical. And he won't love being among us ink-stained wretches in the press box ... 'Hey, Tommy, can you pass the ketchup ovah here! Thanks buddy, you're a beaut kid.' 

3. Speaking of Brady, he's made several mentions of the pull of family when it has come to his career, retirement ... staying away from Patriots offseason workouts, without mentioning the contract dispute. Well, Brady has been at the Bucs' voluntary workouts.

"Tom’s a worker," coach Todd Bowles told reporters. "Tom comes in on his own. He doesn’t need to be here, but you don’t play that long without having inner drive. We have great communication, and we have a great relationship. He comes in on his own and works. He doesn’t need the work everyone else needs, but the camaraderie, when he comes in here, is very good."

Any more questions on why Brady skipped those workouts here? $$$$$

4. No, I don't think the Patriots are looking at adding much to the roster before injuries. Based on the way they drafted, they seem to feel pretty good about apparent deficiencies at nose tackle, left edge and cornerback. Patriots only have $791,680 in cap space officially — before they sign their top draft picks. They'll need to create space ... just to do that and operate during the season. 

5. RIP, Mr. Patriot, Gino Cappelletti. He was before my time both as a player and broadcaster, but it was clear Mr. Cappelletti was held in the highest regard by not only those around the team, but also the fans. As he should have been. He was one of the franchise's greatest players as a receiver (292 catches, 4,589 yards, 42 touchdowns) and kicker (his four playoff FGs vs. Buffalo in 1963 helped lift the Patriots to their only AFL title game), but more importantly, he was, for many years, just a huge ambassador for the game and the team in the region — and he was one of the kindest and classiest gentlemen you'd ever meet. 

Bill Belichick on Cappelletti, when he retired in 2012: "Going back to his days as one of the all-time great players, Gino has been such a fixture, so it is hard imagining not working with him on a regular basis. I have been fortunate to enjoy Gino's presence and share experiences that extend well beyond the game. Around the team, he wasn't just a broadcaster but was – and remains – truly part of the team, respected by players and coaches for representing everything good about sports. Gino is a class act, one of the true gentlemen of the AFL and NFL and I am proud to have been associated with him every week of my career as Patriots head coach."