NBA training camps open next week, and between now and then, we’ll be pondering 20 questions about the Boston Celtics as we head into the new season. Today we look at whether the team can come together defensively and how good it might be.
______________________________
“To be a great team, and a team that’s in the mix, you should probably be in the top five or six on both sides.”
That's a regular observation from Brad Stevens, who dropped this particular quote about a month ago when talking about the team he has been assembling this summer.
It stands to reason. If a team is one of the best at scoring the ball and stopping the other team from doing the same, that team is going to win A LOT. And even when teams don’t finish the regular season in the top five or six of a category, there’s a good chance they turn it on in the playoffs. The Milwaukee Bucks did that this past season when their defensive rating jumped from ninth in the regular season to first in the playoffs. The Lakers did it the year before when their offense went from eleventh to second.
Ime Udoka comes into his first head coaching job with a defensive reputation. He takes over a team with an All-Defensive team guard at the point of attack, and more than a few capable defenders.
“We’ll see where we land when we get together, and how we play, and how we fit together and everything else,” Stevens said. “We have a lot of good players, and that’s exciting. We do want to be able to be versatile, we do want to play different ways.”
The Celtics can be good defensively, but how good? Can they push into the top five?
A few things will have to go right.
The biggest factor will simply be the buy-in, which is why the connection Udoka makes with his team was its own piece in this series. There’s no chance Boston’s defense succeeds at all if the team isn’t doing what Udoka and the staff asks, and they do it well.
Basically, defense is about effort, and the teams trying hardest on defense will be the best defensive teams in the league.
Within that are the teams that execute the plan more perfectly. Buy-in is great, precision is better. The best defensive teams, those top five teams, often move on the proverbial string; when one player moves, the rest are moving in unison. They are talking to each other, alerting one another to movement in their blind spots. They are helping and recovering.
A lot of that starts with the centers. They are the defensive quarterbacks on the back line because they see everything and they generally cover the least ground on defensive possessions. Robert Williams needs to see the floor and communicate better than he ever has for the Celtics defense to be its best. If he can anticipate plays and call out coverages, then his teammates will have the added advantage that could mean the difference between a blow-by and a stop.
The return of Al Horford will really help in this regard. This is also another reason why I think starting Williams over Horford is important. Not only is Williams younger and more agile, the Celtics need him to reach another defensive level. Having Horford on the bench to help guide Williams during stoppages is going to be invaluable. Horford’s mentorship of Williams could be one of the single most important elements of this year’s team.
Wings are at a terrible disadvantage on defense in today’s NBA. Any level of contact seems to be a foul, giving offensive players the biggest advantage the league has seen. Still, Boston’s wings need to do a better job than last season at preventing dribble penetration. Nothing destroys a defense like a ball handler getting into the paint, and the Celtics spent too much time in those situations last season.
If Udoka goes with Josh Richardson next to Marcus Smart, he’ll pair two top-notch defenders to help avoid those situations. Add Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to the mix, two guys who have been big parts of high-level defenses, and they can help cover for each other to prevent throwing Williams and Horford in tough situations -- though Williams can certainly make up for some of that with his own athletic ability.
The biggest variables in this are the guys coming off the bench, most of whom are real question marks on defense. For Boston’s defense to get into the top five, they’ll need some contributions from a few of their reserves.
How creative will Udoka get in covering for those players’ deficiencies? How much zone is he willing to play? What combinations will he find to mitigate the defensive drop off in some of these players?
And further, how can the good defenders on the team cover for the bad ones? Can they do it without getting frustrated?
There are important players who will likely come off the bench like Payton Pritchard, Aaron Nesmith, and Juancho Hernangomez who all have deficiencies that need to be addressed. How will the Celtics be able to work them in and get the necessary offensive contributions while either pulling good defense out of somewhere it didn’t exist before, or hiding them to minimize the damage?
The Celtics can probably throw a high-end defensive starting five on the floor. They will get good defensive contributions from Horford and Dennis Schröder. Nesmith and Pritchard will not disappoint in the effort department, but they have strides to make. And from there, the Celtics will have issues.
Are those issues enough to drag down the overall team rating, or will Udoka and his staff be able to cobble together enough solutions to lessen that blow?
The Celtics should be a good defensive team. How good depends on how the team covers for its weak links.
The 20 questions series:
