Finally, the 2026 NFL season starts.
Who's going to win it all?
Who's going to take home the awards?
Where are the Patriots going to finish?
Let's recap how we've done on the Patriots in the past few seasons...
2025: Bedard 9-8; Giardi 8-9. Reality: 14-3. ... Yeah, who saw the greatest injury luck ever coming?
2024: Bedard 9-8; Giardi 5-12. Reality: 4-13. ... Oops, Bedard. Obviously I was very high on Jerod Mayo.
2023: Bedard 7-10; Giardi 8-9. Reality: 4-13. ... Meh
So with that as background (I will go into more detail on how I see the Patriots' season going on Wednesday), here is how we see things playing out this NFL season, and we offer our NFL and Patriots individual award winners:
BEDARD'S PICKS
AFC EAST
Patriots 11-6
Bills 11-6
Dolphins 2-15
Jets 2-15
AFC SEEDS
1. Broncos
2. Texans
3. Bengals
4. Patriots
5. Bills
6. Chargers
7. Chiefs
NFC SEEDS
1. Rams
2. Bears
3. Cowboys
4. Buccaneers
5. Seahawks
6. 49ers
7. Packers
___________________
POSTSEASON
Wild Card
Patriots over Bills
Chargers over Bengals
Chiefs over Texans
Seahawks over Bucs
49ers over Cowboys
Bears over Packers
Divisional Round
Chargers over Patriots
Broncos over Chiefs
Rams over 49ers
Seahawks over Bears
Championship Round
Broncos over Chargers
Rams over Seahawks
Super Bowl
Rams over Broncos
___________________
GIARDI'S PICKS
AFC East
Patriots 11-6
Bills 11-6
Jets 5-12
Dolphins 2-15
AFC playoff seeds
1. Broncos
2. Ravens
3. Patriots
4. Texans
5. Bills
6. Colts
7. Chiefs
NFC seeds
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Eagles
4. Buccaneers
5. 49ers
6. Rams
7. Lions
Wild Card
Ravens over Chiefs
Patriots over Colts (anyone want to check the PSI of the footballs?)
Bills over Texans
Packers over Lions
Rams over Eagles
49ers over Buccaneers
Divisional Round
Bills over Broncos
Ravens over Patriots
Seahawks over Rams
Packers over 49ers
Championship Round
Ravens over Bills
Seahawks over Packers
Super Bowl
Ravens over Seahawks (yeah, i picked the Ravens again. I immediately regret my decision).
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Craig Woodson (he's wearing 4 this season)
NFL AND PATRIOTS AWARD WINNERS
MVP
NFL (Giardi): Lamar Jackson, Ravens
He did not look like himself a year ago. Now, with a new head coach and a new coordinator who wants the Ravens to play faster, Jackson reminds everyone why he won two MVPs before and should have/could have won a third (Josh Allen got it).
NFL (Bedard): Justin Herbert, Chargers
Yup, I'm pushing all my Herbert chips to the middle of the table now that he has a real OC and both his tackles back. We're coming for you, Big Jim Murray!!!
Patriots (Giardi): Drake Maye (duh)
What is there to say? He should be a perennial league MVP candidate every year, which means I’ll be copying and pasting these two sentences again for the next decade.
Patriots (Bedard): A.J Brown
It will be Maye, but I'm going to zag with the guy who won me over this summer as a rejuvenated athlete.
Offensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Drake Maye
I don’t expect Maye to complete 72% of his passes again, but I do expect him to throw for well over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. With his running ability and the Pats winning the division again, Maye will get a lot of consideration for a number of awards, and while he may not win the MVP, this is a nice little consolation prize.
NFL (Bedard): Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
What a homer Giardi is. I'm going with the best back in football. Of course, now he'll get injured.
Patriots (Giardi): A.J. Brown
He will remind everyone what a number one receiver looks like (apologies to Stefon Diggs).
Patriots (Bedard): Rhamondre Stevenson
I'm hoping this is the season Stevenson gets the respect he deserves, as people keep wishing on TreVeyon Henderson.
Defensive player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Will Anderson, Texans
12 sacks and three forced fumbles a season ago for that scary defense. Look for him to add to both numbers and for the Texans to lead the league in all the defensive metrics that matter.
NFL (Bedard): Myles Garrett, Rams
They just name the award after him. If you thought he was good in Cleveland, wait until you see what he does with Aaron Donald on the inside.
Patriots (Giardi): Christian Gonzalez
He was their best player in camp - on either side of the ball. Now he’s got a big contract to live up to, but I think he’s primed for a big year that will include the next step in his evolution: interceptions.
Patriots (Bedard): Craig Woodson.
Speaking of not getting enough credit, I don't think people talk enough about how Woodson closed out last season. I'm expecting more of the same this year.
Offensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Fernando Mendoza, Raiders
This would have been Jordyn Tyson in a landslide, but a guy with a history of injury is, lo and behold, hurt again (hamstring) and will miss at least the first four weeks. Thus, I make the layup: the top pick in the draft and the guy who will eventually be the starting QB in Vegas in Mendoza. A handful of years ago, Kyler Murray won the award and wasn’t necessarily worthy, but because he was the top pick and a QB, he got it. Think the same here.
NFL (Bedard): Jadarian Price, Seahawks
Not many rookie running backs get put on a great offense with a good line. Unfortunately for the Patriots, I think Price announces his presence with authority on Wednesday night with a big run.
Patriots (Giardi): Eli Raridon
Tough call between a part-time tight end, a UDFA at the position (Tanner Arkin), and a first-round lineman who, if all goes well, will spend most of his year as a jumbo tight end (Caleb Lomu). In the end, I went with Raridon. I don’t expect his stats to be outrageous; in fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he averaged a catch per game. But with his length and speed, he might be able to turn one of these play-action boots into a 30-yarder.
Patriots (Bedard): Eli Raridon
Not too many nominees for this award. Hopefully Caleb Lomu doesn't get the chance to play. But Raridon will be a gameplan guy: a few designer plays to get him loose every game.
Defensive rookie of the year
NFL (Giardi): Rueben Bain, Bucs
A top 6 to 8 player who fell to 15 because of an off-the-field revelation and short arms. However, no matter what you think of Todd Bowles as head coach, his defensive coordinator instincts have always maximized his personnel, and I believe he’ll have Bain pushing for 10 sacks in year one.
NFL (Bedard): Caleb Downs, Cowboy
He's the new do-everything safety in the NFL. Expect him to put up huge numbers from safety, linebacker and the slot.
Patriots (Giardi): Gabe Jacas
I mean, who else is it going to be? I know that Jacas is going to get meaningful reps, whether he’s ready for them or not. Eventually, they believe the traits he flashed periodically during camp will show more consistently, and I say: the sooner, the better.
Patriots (Bedard): Karon Prunty.
I'm going off the board here for entertainment, but this is not out of the realm of possibility: Carlton Davis goes down and Prunty proves to be just as good down the stretch.
Comeback player of the year
NFL (Giardi): Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
He's still one of the best five quarterbacks in the league, and while the injury happened late in the year, the voters aren't very discerning (see Joe Flacco coming off his couch to win the award).
NFL (Bedard): Kyler Murray, Vikings
It's Mahomes, but there's no doubt in my mind that Murray will be the half-season winner, and then he'll fall off a cliff like always, taking the Vikings with him.
Patriots (Giardi): Alijah Vera-Tucker
There aren’t too many candidates on the Pats roster, so I give it to a guy who wasn’t on the roster last year, Vera-Tucker. He didn’t play a game for the Jets because of a triceps injury, and now the Pats are counting on him to solidify the left side of that offensive line, paying him handsomely to do it.
Patriots (Bedard): Will Campbell.
This might not be in the spirit of the award, but this guy was killed so much around here after the season that he deserves something if he bounces back and is good and solid this year.
Coach of the year
NFL (Giardi): Jesse Minter, Ravens
I am fully bought in on the Minter experience. He comes from the Mike Macdonald defensive tree and is going to a place that needs a change. We’ll see what it looks like when he faces adversity, but the reviews are off the charts so far.
NFL (Bedard): Kellen Moore, Saints
My picks might not reflect it, but I do think the Saints will be one of the surprise stories this year, at least for part of the season.
Patriots (assistant coach) - Giardi: Todd Downing, WRs
Lot of egos in that wide receiver room, including a couple of new players looking to prove they were worth the acquisition price. Downing struck a chord with a different group last year and seems to have full buy-in again this summer. The Pats will need it.
Patriots (assistant coach) - Bedard: Thomas Brown, TEs
I nailed Todd Downing last year, so I'm going with Brown, who will be responsible for a lot more this year with rookie Eli Raridon, and blockers in Tanner Arkin and Cam Latu. Brown has a lot of work to do, and I think that group will be vastly improved this year.