There's no question the Patriots' defense has been elite, by every measure, in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and you could extend it to the final two regular-season games against the Jets and Dolphins as well.
By Defensive EPA per Play, those four games are all in the top six for the Patriots this season, with only the Browns (Dillon Gabriel) and Titans (3-14) breaking up the party:
WC Texans 0.42 EPA
18 Dolphins 0.35
8 Browns 0.32
7 Titans 0.28
WC Chargers 0.25
17 Jets 0.19
Even in my grading and ratings, the defense has been off the charts in the last month, with all three levels earning 5 out of 5s last week against the Chargers. The defensive line earned another 5 this week.
So there's no question the Patriots' defense is playing elite (and you can get other pants-off stats from buddy Jerry Thornton) as it enters the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos and backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Will that definitely continue against the Broncos? There's an argument to be made for both sides. Let's get into it:
WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY GREAT
1. Stidham
This one is obvious. The Patriots are taking on a career backup who not only hasn't started a game in two years, he hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since Jan. 7, 2024. That's some serious cobwebs. Plus, he hasn't seen NFL game speed — the playoffs are on another level — in years, so he's bound to be confused and panicked at certain times.
2. Patriots' defense is different with Williams and Spillane.
New England went through a lull, in terms of EPA/play, starting with the Falcons in Week 9 through the Ravens in Week 16. The Patriots didn't have Milton Williams from Weeks 12-17, and Robert Spillane in Weeks 15-18. Both are among the Patriots' best defensive players. Obviously the Patriots are much better with them than without them.
3. The coaching staff is on a heater.
We wondered all season if the Patriots' coaches would have the ability to throw curveballs at opposing defenses in the postseason, and the answer was very much in the affirmative. Against the Chargers, the Patriots matched their cornerbacks, threw in different coverages, blitzed at their highest rate of the season (45.5%), and max blitzed the most since Week 1 (18.4%). Against the Texans, the Patriots' defensive line slanted or stunted (throwing in a long stunt not seen before) on just about every snap — run or pass — blitzed over their season average (36.5%).
Basically, the coaches have come up with new things each of the first two games in the playoffs. If that continues, the Patriots are in good shape.
4. The execution is off the charts.
My grade for the three levels of the defense has been very high over the last month, and that's because they are executing the defense at a high level. It reminds me of the Bill Belichick defenses I used to grade. No matter how talented the unit was, by the end of the season, the Patriots would have great execution as players understood their roles and flourished in them. I see this unit as very similar. If you gave me the choice between a talented defense that didn't execute well, and a defense with good talent but executed at a high level, I'd take the latter every single time. And great execution, to me, travels. But that will be put to the test at Mile High.
WHY THE PATRIOTS MIGHT NOT CONTINUE TO PLAY GREAT
