There's no question the Patriots' defense has been elite, by every measure, in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and you could extend it to the final two regular-season games against the Jets and Dolphins as well.
By Defensive EPA per Play, those four games are all in the top six for the Patriots this season, with only the Browns (Dillon Gabriel) and Titans (3-14) breaking up the party:
WC Texans 0.42 EPA
18 Dolphins 0.35
8 Browns 0.32
7 Titans 0.28
WC Chargers 0.25
17 Jets 0.19
Even in my grading and ratings, the defense has been off the charts in the last month, with all three levels earning 5 out of 5s last week against the Chargers. The defensive line earned another 5 this week.
So there's no question the Patriots' defense is playing elite (and you can get other pants-off stats from buddy Jerry Thornton) as it enters the AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos and backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
Will that definitely continue against the Broncos? There's an argument to be made for both sides. Let's get into it:
WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY GREAT
1. Stidham
This one is obvious. The Patriots are taking on a career backup who not only hasn't started a game in two years, he hasn't thrown a regular-season pass since Jan. 7, 2024. That's some serious cobwebs. Plus, he hasn't seen NFL game speed — the playoffs are on another level — in years, so he's bound to be confused and panicked at certain times.
2. Patriots' defense is different with Williams and Spillane.
New England went through a lull, in terms of EPA/play, starting with the Falcons in Week 9 through the Ravens in Week 16. The Patriots didn't have Milton Williams from Weeks 12-17, and Robert Spillane in Weeks 15-18. Both are among the Patriots' best defensive players. Obviously the Patriots are much better with them than without them.
3. The coaching staff is on a heater.
We wondered all season if the Patriots' coaches would have the ability to throw curveballs at opposing defenses in the postseason, and the answer was very much in the affirmative. Against the Chargers, the Patriots matched their cornerbacks, threw in different coverages, blitzed at their highest rate of the season (45.5%), and max blitzed the most since Week 1 (18.4%). Against the Texans, the Patriots' defensive line slanted or stunted (throwing in a long stunt not seen before) on just about every snap — run or pass — blitzed over their season average (36.5%).
Basically, the coaches have come up with new things each of the first two games in the playoffs. If that continues, the Patriots are in good shape.
4. The execution is off the charts.
My grade for the three levels of the defense has been very high over the last month, and that's because they are executing the defense at a high level. It reminds me of the Bill Belichick defenses I used to grade. No matter how talented the unit was, by the end of the season, the Patriots would have great execution as players understood their roles and flourished in them. I see this unit as very similar. If you gave me the choice between a talented defense that didn't execute well, and a defense with good talent but executed at a high level, I'd take the latter every single time. And great execution, to me, travels. But that will be put to the test at Mile High.
WHY THE PATRIOTS MIGHT NOT CONTINUE TO PLAY GREAT
1. Patriots feasted on bad offensive lines, and the Broncos are one of the best.
This is going to be the only reason, especially if the Broncos get starting center Luke Wattenberg (shoulder) back in the lineup. The team opened his 21-day window off IR on Wednesday. Denver lost backup Alex Forsyth against the Bills, and third-stringer Sam Mustipher had to finish the game.
If Wattenberg is back and effective, this will be, by far, one of the best offensive lines the Patriots have faced this season, with the Bills the only other unit in the running. In fact, Denver finished No. 1 in PFF's final offensive line rankings:
1. Denver Broncos
Best lineup:
LT Garett Bolles LG Ben Powers C Luke Wattenberg RG Quinn Meinerz RT Mike McGlinchey
Unlike last year, the Broncos' offensive line faced several injuries in 2025. Left guard Ben Powers missed an extended period of time, while center Luke Wattenberg’s season ended early. However, the unit still performed well due to solid performances from Alex Palczewski at left guard and Alex Forsyth at center.
For the second season in a row, the Broncos fielded the most efficient pass-blocking offensive line. Denver’s unit gave up 137 pressures, including a league-low six sacks, leading to an 89.5 PFF pass-blocking efficiency rating. The Broncos' line was the only unit to allow fewer than 13 sacks this season.
Best player: Garett Bolles
Bolles earned a 90.8 PFF pass-blocking grade, the highest mark among all offensive tackles.
LT Garrett Bolles and RG Quinn Meinerz were both voted first-team All-Pros. RT Mike McGlinchey and Wattenberg are good players. LG Ben Powers is the weak link.
Basically, this is a huge step up in class for the Patriots' defensive front.
In the final four games, the only decent unit was the Jets (PFF rank, 22), against which the defensive line struggled (my grade was 2.5 out of 5). The pressure rate was just 28.6%, and stuff percentage was 30%.
PFF ranks down the stretch:
Jets, 22nd
Dolphins, 29th
Chargers, 30th
Texans, 27th (and didn't have Trent Brown)
Yes, the Patriots have played lights out over the past month, especially in both playoff games. But how much of that had to do with the opponents having bad offensive lines, and the Patriots' front dominating the run and the pass as a result? Factor in the Chargers and Texans (no Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz) not having weapons that would scare the Patriots, so that gave them more confidence to play more aggressively with blitz and coverage. Did all that combine to have the Patriots call and play the game without much fear, so that resulted in dominating play? Or are they just this good now? There's obviously no clear answer to that, but we should get an answer on Sunday.
Here are the positional ratings against the Texans:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
This is pretty simple: if Drake Maye took care of the ball, like he has virtually all season, he grades great and the Patriots win going away. But he didn't, and it was a tractor pull. The formula for the Patriots against any team is for Maye to make 3-4 elite plays in the game, and for him to take care of the football. This was half mission accomplished. ... I had Maye for three elite plays in the game: the touchdowns to Stefon Diggs (elite placement and velocity) and Kayshon Boutte (touch and accuracy), and the 8-yard scramble out of a sack on third down. ... He got partial credit on three of the fumbles, but not when Will Campbell was beaten cleanly by Will Anderson. Maye is going to have to be more intentional about the clock in his head, and realize who he's going against and the game situation. His fumble to the 3 and the one before halftime is the kind of stuff Josh Allen does to lose games (like against the Broncos). But Maye's young, and I don't expect him to be perfect. Just a little smarter and with a little more urgency as they climb playoff rungs.
Running backs (2.5 out of 5)
Rhamondre Stevenson continues to be awesome — although I'm reasonably sure he ran the wrong way on the busted play that resulted in Maye fumbling — and TreVeyon Henderson does not. ... At this point, Stevenson is one of the most valuable players on this team because the drop off from him to Henderson (right now, he's just a rooke) is vast. Henderson is just not a good all-around back right now. I gave him three stuffed runs, a half sack and two other runs where he left yards on the field.
Receivers (5 out of 5)
Not a ton of stuff here against an elite defense, but they executed at a high level with zero minus plays. ... Boutte was great with his 25-yard YAC, 17-yard DPI call, and ridiculous touchdown against Derek Stingley. ... Diggs showed terrific toughness on his touchdown catch in traffic, and added another third-down catch. ... Kyle Williams ran a couple of good routes and was let down a little by Maye, especially on the second deep ball, when Maye should have placed it more to the field, not the sideline. ... Efton Chism had a couple of plus run blocks. He told me in the locker room he absolutely loves that, and I believed him. Nut.
Offensive line (3 out of 5)
So the pressure rate was one of the lowest of the season (I know it didn't feel that way), and the run blocking was good late. The right side of the line continues to be very good, it's just the rookies with some continued issues as opponents target them. ... Will Campbell needs to develop a punch and stop catching these top-notch pass rushers. This ain't the SEC anymore. These are well-trained men. Campbell needs to add some strength and a good punch in the offseason. I don't see him as being injured, but I could be wrong. ... Jared Wilson was good for the most part, but factored into two sacks with fumbles on the play. ... Morgan Moses was outstanding. ... First time Garrett Bradbury struggled a bit in the run game against strength.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Again, only two mental errors for the entire group. Everyone save for Harold Landry (half run-stuff) had multiple impactful plays, with four having at least four. ... K'Lavon Chaisson feasted against rookie LT Airontae Ersery. Completely dominated. ... Milton Williams, Cory Durden, Christian Barmore, Anfernee Jennings, Leonard Taylor and Khyiris Tonga continue to play good ball. ... The Patriots were very aggressive in their plan with stunts and slants on just about every down. That's what you do when you think the opposing line has no chance.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Only one minus play, but not many impact plays (Christian Elliss led with 3) because the defensive line dominated so much. ... Robert Spillane was fortunate on his final pass breakup that CJ Stroud underthrew the receiver (he only did that about 8 times). ... BTW, Stroud was god-awful in this game, and only some of it was the Patriots. I had him for 21 minus plays — plays he should make, or at least do better on. He stunk out loud in that game.
Secondary (3 out of 5)
A lot of this was thanks to Stroud, but this group was a little boom and bust outside of Christian Gonzalez (enormous forced fumble, two pass breakups and a strong pass tackle) and Craig Woodson (INT, knockdown, two passes defensed). ... Yes, Carlton Davis had two interceptions, two pass breakup sand a half stuffed run. But he also had three penalties for 48 yards — all legit — and allowed a 16-yard pass. ... Marcus Jones had the tipped pick-six (assists to Milton Williams and K'Lavon Chaisson), and another pass breakup, but he also allowed a touchdown (another poor throw by Stroud) and a 20-yard pass. He also seemed to factor into the 40-yard busted play to a tight end. ... Jaylinn Hawkins (two hurries) was very active blitzing as the Patriots showed no fear of the Texans without Collins and Schultz.
THREE UP
DE K'Lavon Chaisson: Has been carrying the edge pass rush. Can he do it against Garrett Bolles?
CB Christian Gonzalez: Had a quiet first half, but exploded in the second half to seal the game. His strip of Woody Marks was one of the biggest plays of the season.
WR Kayshon Boutte: One of the biggest postseason catches in Patriots history, to go along with other strong play.
Also considered: Stevenson, Moses, Diggs, Chism, entire defensive line, Woodson.
THREE DOWN
LT Will Campbell: This is two games in a row, and it doesn't get any easier against Nik Bonitto.
RB TreVeyon Henderson: If there's not much there, he's not going to pick much up. Not much feel for the game unless there's a 3-foot opening and no defender is there.
QB Drake Maye: If the ball bounces differently, and CJ Stroud wasn't a puddle, Maye would have joined Josh Allen as playoff losers because of too many turnovers. It has to end on Sunday. Big plays are nice. No turnovers is nicer.