Well, this is a welcome change. During my tenure here at BSJ, the Patrots haven’t sniffed the playoffs. Now? They’re one of the favorites in the AFC. I always say the job is the job - good, bad, ugly, indifferent. But after a couple of years of watching bad football and bad coaching and bad roster construction, this season has been a breath of fresh air. That doesn’t mean this group gets slack, but I’m also no longer thinking a root canal would be better than watching the Patriots play football, so there’s that.
I’m going to share with you thoughts from my NFL contacts about Sunday night's matchup, but before I do, a couple of my own thoughts about this game:
1. I expect the Pats to come out as they did versus Buffalo in Week 5, with bigger personnel as if to say, ‘You ain’t running on us tonight.’ Chargers OC Greg Roman is far more experienced than Joe Brady of the Bills, but he’s also stubborn. LA has a play style, and being the more physical team is it. With no Khyiris Tonga and Milton Williams dealing with the ankle, I expect Roman will keep handing it off until it’s clear that either a) he’s wasting time or b) the game script forces him to get away from it.
2. I think the Pats are going to try and manipulate the Chargers’ defensive personnel. LA wants to play lighter boxes and use Derwin James as that movable, attacking chess piece. Josh McDaniels has leaned more into bigger personnel, using Thayer Munford as an extra lineman. This offense has the 5th-most snaps with an extra lineman since their bye (62 in total). Can McDaniels get LA DC Jesse Minter to alter his desired approach and go heavier? That would rob Minter of some of his creativity/disguise, and should also allow for more throwing windows/preferable matchups in the secondary.
On to the big brains (I always appreciate their time, especially when some of them still have teams playing):
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL:
AFC Pro Personnel director: “Minter is really smart. I expect him to change the picture on Maye and the offense as much as possible. I’d also expect them to show pressure, though I doubt they’ll blitz very often. I know (Maye) hasn’t been great against (cover) zero, but you can’t live in that. He (Maye) has been very decisive when he sees defenders turn their backs and we know he’s got the legs to take advantage of that.”
AFC defensive back coach (team played the Pats this year): “Maye is a pain in the ass to defend because of his effectiveness as a runner. He’s gotten better as the year goes along. You’ve got to have eyes on him, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Chargers spy him on occasion.
“His receivers aren’t guys that keep you up at night. The quarterback makes them so much better. But they are also good enough that you can’t fall asleep on them. (Stefon) Diggs is smart and will work the middle of the field. Not having (Mack) Hollins sucks for them; he did so much. They’re still trying to figure out how to make up for that in the pass game.”
AFC Defensive coordinator (team played the Pats this year): “When we saw them, ball security was an issue. They’ve cleaned that up, but I’d still instruct my guys to punch at it. The problem with those two backs (TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson) is that there’s that fine line. They can both run through contact. Tackle first and have the second and third guys punch. Or look stupid.
“(Will) Campbell’s good, but they got two guys