Well, this is a welcome change. During my tenure here at BSJ, the Patrots haven’t sniffed the playoffs. Now? They’re one of the favorites in the AFC. I always say the job is the job - good, bad, ugly, indifferent. But after a couple of years of watching bad football and bad coaching and bad roster construction, this season has been a breath of fresh air. That doesn’t mean this group gets slack, but I’m also no longer thinking a root canal would be better than watching the Patriots play football, so there’s that.
I’m going to share with you thoughts from my NFL contacts about Sunday night's matchup, but before I do, a couple of my own thoughts about this game:
1. I expect the Pats to come out as they did versus Buffalo in Week 5, with bigger personnel as if to say, ‘You ain’t running on us tonight.’ Chargers OC Greg Roman is far more experienced than Joe Brady of the Bills, but he’s also stubborn. LA has a play style, and being the more physical team is it. With no Khyiris Tonga and Milton Williams dealing with the ankle, I expect Roman will keep handing it off until it’s clear that either a) he’s wasting time or b) the game script forces him to get away from it.
2. I think the Pats are going to try and manipulate the Chargers’ defensive personnel. LA wants to play lighter boxes and use Derwin James as that movable, attacking chess piece. Josh McDaniels has leaned more into bigger personnel, using Thayer Munford as an extra lineman. This offense has the 5th-most snaps with an extra lineman since their bye (62 in total). Can McDaniels get LA DC Jesse Minter to alter his desired approach and go heavier? That would rob Minter of some of his creativity/disguise, and should also allow for more throwing windows/preferable matchups in the secondary.
On to the big brains (I always appreciate their time, especially when some of them still have teams playing):
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL:
AFC Pro Personnel director: “Minter is really smart. I expect him to change the picture on Maye and the offense as much as possible. I’d also expect them to show pressure, though I doubt they’ll blitz very often. I know (Maye) hasn’t been great against (cover) zero, but you can’t live in that. He (Maye) has been very decisive when he sees defenders turn their backs and we know he’s got the legs to take advantage of that.”
AFC defensive back coach (team played the Pats this year): “Maye is a pain in the ass to defend because of his effectiveness as a runner. He’s gotten better as the year goes along. You’ve got to have eyes on him, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Chargers spy him on occasion.
“His receivers aren’t guys that keep you up at night. The quarterback makes them so much better. But they are also good enough that you can’t fall asleep on them. (Stefon) Diggs is smart and will work the middle of the field. Not having (Mack) Hollins sucks for them; he did so much. They’re still trying to figure out how to make up for that in the pass game.”
AFC Defensive coordinator (team played the Pats this year): “When we saw them, ball security was an issue. They’ve cleaned that up, but I’d still instruct my guys to punch at it. The problem with those two backs (TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson) is that there’s that fine line. They can both run through contact. Tackle first and have the second and third guys punch. Or look stupid.
“(Will) Campbell’s good, but they got two guys (Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu) who can use their length and power to cause him problems. I’d also attack their interior with games. (Mike) Onwenu is strong, but speed can give him some problems.”
Pro scout for an NFC Team (that played the Chargers): “Maye will need to be smart. This team will not tiptoe around him. If he wants to run, they will treat him like he’s a running back or wide receiver. They have a couple of guys (Denzel Perryman for sure) who will walk right up to that line and have been known to step over it.”
WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
AFC defensive coordinator: “This isn’t rocket science. You know how Jim (Harbaugh) wants to play. They wanna run the ball, shorten the game, and let Justin (Herbert) not have as much on him. Not because he can’t handle it. But that's easier said than done. I don’t think the scheme does him any favors, and then he has to go into create mode to get them out of third-and-longs over and over again. People point to his interceptions. That’s where they come from.
“Their receivers are inconsistent. (Keenan) Allen is savvy and is probably their best guy against man (note: he leads them in catches vs man), but he’s not getting anything after the catch. (Ladd) McConkey is good, but he’s small, and catches away from his body are harder because of it. He tries to do too much. (Quentin) Johnston is the kind of guy you don’t want to make a mistake against, but he’s really inconsistent. You think he’d chew up man with his size and speed. He didn’t against us (note: nor against anyone else). Yeah, there’s the home run possibility with him, and his size makes him valuable in the low red, but I’d trust the Pats corners on him.”
NFC Offensive line coach: “Stress their communication up front. They’ve run through so many bodies on the line (Chargers led the NFL with 32 different OL combinations in 2025), and we had success playing games and getting them to make mistakes with their eyes. You should be able to create some free runners and force Herbert to throw one before he wants to. I’ll give that kid credit. We hit the shit out of him and he kept getting back up (Per TruMedia, Herbert has been hit 129 times this year, second-most since 2000, when they first started keeping track).
“(Omarion) Hampton is a player. Fast. Physical. I see why they took him where they did. If he’s healthy (he missed last week with an ankle injury but will try on Sunday), he can make some shit happen on his own. That line is better when they can get after you. It’s when you get ‘em in pass pro mode that your guys can pin their ears back and ruin shit.”
ODDS AND ENDS
AFC assistant GM: “These are two of the best head coaches in the sport. Both know how they want to play, and both have their teams playing that way. Impressive when you know the rosters aren’t where they should be. That says a lot.”
AFC assistant offensive line coach: “Patriots need their big guys to show up (Milton Williams and Christian Barmore).”
AFC personnel director: “Pats better have a plan for Derwin James. He’s the key to that entire defensive operation.”
AFC defensive coordinator: “I’d expect the Chargers to keep Maye in the pocket, and if he does get loose, try to funnel him forward and keep him from going right (his preferred side as a right-handed QB).”
NERD NUMBERS FOR PATS V. CHARGERS
- Maye has 13 dropbacks versus drop-8 coverages (Tampa Bay did this to NE a handful of times, and I wrote about it) this season. He’s 5-of-12, 79 yards, 1 INT, 29.5 QB Rating. The Chargers have the third-highest rate of drop-8, breaking it out a season-high 9 times vs. the Chiefs.
- Pats are 7th in rushing DVOA and 10th in rushing success rate since week 10.
- The Patriots have faced 3 teams with a winning record in 2025 (the fewest in the NFL): Week 3 vs PIT (L, 21-14), Week 5 at BUF (W, 23-20), Week 15 vs BUF (L, 35-31). The Pats went 1-2 in those games (-8 point differential) and 13-1 in all other games (+178 point differential).
- The Patriots are 5th in scoring offense (28.8 PPG) and 5th in scoring defense (18.8 PPG allowed). They are one of 2 teams to rank top 5 in both scoring offense and scoring defense (SEA).
- The Chargers will enter the playoffs on a 2-game losing streak (rested in week 18). Each of the last 5 teams to do so lost their first playoff game.
- The Chargers finished 6-2 in one-possession games in 2025 (3rd-highest win pct in NFL). The Patriots finished 7-3 in one-possession games in 2025 (T-4th-highest in the NFL).
- The Chargers played zone coverage on 80.7% of opponents’ dropbacks in 2025 (5th in the NFL), allowing a passer rating of 74.3. Versus zone defense this year, Maye has a 110.2 passer rating.
- The Chargers were the only defense with more INTs (19) than pass TDs allowed (16) in 2025. That’s the lowest opponent pass TD-INT ratio allowed since the 2021 Bills (12 TD, 19 INT).
THERE’S ALWAYS ONE...
Baltimore's dismissal of John Harbaugh definitely caught some folks off guard, including Harbaugh’s coaching staff, who were informed of the change by team president Sashi Brown and GM Eric DeCosta on Tuesday afternoon. Hell, even the organization didn’t see this coming; they didn’t even have a statement prepared.
That’s not how this year was expected to play out - the Ravens were the preseason favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl - but despite a litany of injuries, they could have won the NFC North if rookie kicker Tyler Loop (who had been excellent all year) hadn’t missed a 44-yard field goal in Pittsburgh on Sunday night.
Instead, Harbaugh immediately became the hottest name on the coaching carousel, and the Ravens’ job vaulted to the most desirable opening on the market. Owner Steve Bisciotti has built one of the most stable organizations in the league - he’s had just three head coaches in his 30 years as the big boss - and DeCosta is well-respected. Baltimore spends money in all areas, has a two-time MVP at quarterback, and a fine collection of building blocks (Kyle Hamilton, Zay Flowers, Nate Wiggins, Roquon Smith, Malaki Starks, Travis Jones) to be a threat next year and beyond.
But based on Lamar Jackson’s decline in play - likely more injury-related than any sort of cliff - this hire will be critical. Jackson has a big cap number, and a new deal would seem to be next on the to-do list after hiring the new coach. But will/should Jackson get a seat at that table? His commitment, especially in the off-season, has been a point of contention for some in the organization (Harbaugh included). But hiring a coach he doesn’t respect or want might make a renegotiation more difficult.
The team has already reached out to Seahawks OC Klink Kubiak, Dolphins DC Anthony Weaver (who was in Baltimore prior), Kevin Stefanski, Broncos assistant Davis Webb and Brady. Others that could make sense are Brian Flores, Minter (another former Baltimore assistant), and Kliff Kingsbury, who “mutually” parted ways with the Commanders.
As for Harbaugh, his agent got calls from seven teams within the first 45 minutes of the news of his firing. Considering there were only six non-Raven openings, someone who currently survived Black Monday/Tuesday might be joining the ranks of the unemployed. Harbaugh is not expected to take any interviews until next week.
MUSICAL CHAIRS
There promises to be quite a bit of quarterback turnover across the league. Too many teams are caught in no man’s land - paying or deciding to pay middling signal callers big money. That continues to get organizations in trouble, including both Miami, which benched Tua Tagovailoa, and Arizona, which essentially did the same with Kyler Murray.
18 months ago, the Dolphins ponied up $167 million in guaranteed dollars to Tagovailoa, only to see his play erode to the point that Mike McDaniel decided to run out 7th-round rookie Quinn Ewers to close out the final month of the season.
It wasn’t much better for the Cardinals, who extended Murray in 2022 for $130 million guaranteed, and while that’s a relative bargain when you look at some of the contracts signed in the last year or so, Arizona’s offense was significantly more productive under journeyman Jacoby Brissett. Murray has $36.8 million on lock for 2026, and on the fifth day of the new league year in mid-March, another $19.5 million of his base salary becomes guaranteed (if he is still on the roster). I can’t imagine whoever the Cards hire as their new head coach will want to be tethered to that player at that price.
Tagovailoa and Murray aren’t the only two passers who will be available via trade or after they’re cut. Kirk Cousins is about to go down that road as well. The Falcons restructured his contract, converting Cousins’ 2026 salary from $35 million to $2.1 million. In doing so, Atlanta turned Captain Kirk’s 2027 base salary into an unsightly and cumbersome $67.9 million. If Cousins remains on the roster beyond March 13th, that money becomes guaranteed. I can promise you that’s not happening. He’ll get released, and whoever is running that franchise (both head coach and GM were canned), will likely split the dead cap over two years ($22.5 milliion for 2026, then $12.5 million for ‘27).
Other teams that will have decisions to make at the position: Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Cleveland, and the NY Jets. Considering there are just two consensus first-rounders who play the position (Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore, who is uncertain he’s going to declare), be prepared for there being more competition for “mid” players and overpays. I can’t wait.
CLOCK IS TICKING IN CINCY
How important is this off-season for the Bengals?
“As big as it gets,” Joe Burrow said.
Cincinnati had hopes of a return to the playoffs. Instead, Burrow got injured early in the season, and the Bengals went to hell in a handbasket. Or something like that. But this isn’t all about what happened to the quarterback. This is about how Cincinnati continues to operate and how ownership failed to build a team that came within whiskers of winning a Super Bowl at the end of the 2021-22 season.
"We want to be competing for championships every year,” Burrow said. "We don't want to be in the spot that we're in now. So something's got to change, whether it's players that we have continuing to improve and get better at playing championship caliber football or bringing guys in that will, or whatever it may be, obviously something has to."
“I think some of the things are pretty obvious, what we need to change,” Ja’Marr Chase said. "At the end of the day, I can’t really say or put an emphasis on what needs to be changed because that’s not my role. But it’s pretty obvious on what some of (the) issues (are) that need to be changed.”
Defensive construction certainly tops the list. For the first two months of the season, Cincinnati had one of the worst defenses in history. Not just modern history. I’m talking all-time. That’s hard to do. There was some serious growth over the second half of the season - they allowed less than 19 PPG after the week nine bye, doing so even with Trey Hendrickson missing a majority of the year. There were signs of life from former first-rounder Myles Murphy, cornerbacks D.J. Turner and Dax Hill, and safety Jordan Battle that have head coach Zac Taylor excited.
"Their ability to create plays on the ball and create turnovers sped up,” he said. “So you saw that evolution over time. That's what's encouraging to me. I saw the growth in that entire unit. Seeing the trajectory that they're on, I've got high expectations for that group moving forward."
But let’s be real. Just about any other organization would have probably pulled the plug on Taylor himself after missing the postseason for a third straight season. However, while Burrow is putting the heat on ownership, he likes the status quo with those around him.
“I’m very confident in our coaching staff,” Burrow said. “I know those guys work really hard to put us in good positions, and I always feel well prepared and put in the best spot to succeed. From that standpoint, I think we’re in a good spot.”
NERD NUMBERS
- The Rams (+172) had the 2nd-best point differential in the NFL in 2025, behind only Seattle (+191).
- Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 4,707 pass yards and 46 pass TD (career high) in 2025. He had 15 games with multiple pass TDs, tying HOF Peyton Manning (2013 MVP) and HOF Dan Marino (1984 MVP) for most such games in a season in NFL history.
- Tetairoa McMillan set a Carolina rookie record with 1,014 receiving yards in 2025 (led all rookies).
- With a win in the Wild Card Round, Caleb Williams would become the first Bears QB to defeat the Packers multiple times in a season since Jim Harbaugh in 1991 (2-0 in regular season).
- Williams had 9 QB wins with a sub-60 completion percentage in 2025 (T-most in last 20 seasons). No other QB had more than three.
- Per Next Gen Stats, Jordan Love had an NFL-best 121.4 passer rating on dropbacks with no pressure in 2025. The Bears had the 6th-lowest QB pressure rate (31.6) in the NFL.
- The Bills have not won a road playoff game since the 1992 AFC Championship at Miami.
- Trevor Lawrence has 19 pass TDs and 5 rush TDs in the Jaguars' 8-game win streak (2+ TD every game). He’s the 3rd player in the Super Bowl era with 19+ pass TDs and 5+ rush TDs in an 8-game span, joining Jackson (2019 MVP season) and Cam Newton (2015 MVP season).
- Jax’s Parker Washington is the first player to have 750+ receiving yards and multiple punt return TDs in a single season since DeSean Jackson in 2009. Only others to do so since 2000: 2002 Steve Smith Sr, and 2001 Troy Brown.
- The 49ers had league-low 20 sacks and just 6 INT in 2025 (T-2nd-fewest in NFL; NYJ: 0).
- The Eagles have averaged 194.3 pass YPG in 2025 (23rd in NFL). That’s the 2nd-fewest by a 2025 playoff team (Carolina, 179.3).
- The Eagles have allowed 15.6 PPG since Week 10 (fewest in NFL). The Eagles traded for DE Jaelan Phillips prior to Week 10; Phillips has 2.0 sacks, 7 QB hits, and 34 QB pressures (NGS) since the trade (DNP Week 18).