FOXBOROUGH — The Patriots overcame their "nap" in the second quarter on Sunday to dispatch the Dolphins to finish off a very impressive 14-3 regular season to earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. They will face the No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers at 8 p.m. Sunday.
Before we get into an early look with the Chargers, a few things that stood out in the 38-10 win over Miami:
• I thought Milton Williams and Will Campbell looked great in their returns. Credit to the training and strength staff of the Patriots because those guys looked healthy and ready to go in playing plenty of snaps. Williams had two impactful plays against the run, and started an eventual sack for Elijah Ponder. I thought Williams really freed things up for others up front, especially Christian Barmore, who had his best game in a while (3 pressures). K'Lavon Chaisson (5 pressures), Anferee Jennings and Elijah Ponder (4 each) benefited from Williams looking good.
• Campbell moved well, while wearing a brace on his right knee. He did well on double teams and getting to the second level in the run game. He had his trademark late shoves down the field. His feet appeared light in pass protection. Really good for both players to play into the second half to prime them for the playoffs.
• The Patriots' offense had 10 explosive plays (5 rush, 5 pass) and just one negative play. The Dolphins had 5 explosive plays and 10 negative plays.
• Amazing that Rhamondre Stevenson had 131 yards on just seven carries. He's on a heater right now, and I expect they are priming him for a more featured role in the postseason. TreVeyon Henderson continues to make some progress. His home run threat continues to be very real, and they'll continue to prime that pump.
• Drake Maye got a little big-play hungry in the second quarter, but otherwise played very efficiently and made good decisions, never putting the ball in harm's way. And, ho hum, he had another +14.9 completion percentage above expected.
• Kind of surprised DeMario Douglas had half the team's third down targets (three), but I do think overall they were trying not tax the starters too much and give other players some work.
• Patriots played man coverage 23%, and blitzed 46%. Will they suddenly play more man in the postseason? It would be a surprise, but they have that club in the bag.
We'll have more, obviously, after we break down the film.
Now, some early thoughts on the Chargers after watching some of their Week 17 loss to the Texans.
DEFENSIVE STATS TO KNOW (ALL FROM WEEKS 14-17)
- 4th in points per drive 1.53
- 21st in man coverage percentage 23.8%
- 4th in defensive passer rating 63.4
- 10th in pressure rate 36.7
- 30th in blitz percentage 16.3
- 8th in two safety coverage shell, 48.8%
- 4th in dime rate 22.2%, 28th in base 18.5%
- 1st in defensive rush success rate, and are 6th in explosive rush rate
- 8th in red zone success rate
- 1st in interceptions per attempt 6.0%
- 1st in red zone defense 25%, and goal-to-go defense 33.3%
- 5th in time of possession
So, yeah, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who is expected to be a hot head coach candidate this offseason, is doing a good job. It's a tough defense that's well coordinated. They are big up front and on the edges, fast at the second and third levels.
OFFENSIVE STATS TO KNOW (ALL FROM WEEKS 14-17)
- 31st in pressure rate 47.7, first in scrambles 17, 29th in QB hits 32
- 18th in under-center rate, 33.1%
- 27th in rush stuff rate, 21st in plays that go for zero or negative yards
- Justin Herbert is 4th in completion percentage over expected
- 28th in target separation
- 7th highest blitz rate at 33.6%
- 20th in success rate, 19th pass success, 25th rush success
- 21st in explosive play%, 20th pass, 16th rush
- 19th in rush yards over expected
- 21st in points per drive, 26th in TDs per drive
- 28th in the red zone 42.9%
- Face third downs 23.2%, 30th in the league
The Chargers are really scuffling on offense thanks to brutal play by the offensive line. They can't run the ball consistently, and basically have to rely on Herbert to do everything, and he's taken a beating this season — third-most sacks in the league, and most hits by far. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman is trying to do everything he can to keep the rushers off Herbert so he can make plays.
DEFENSE STRENGTH
Their pass defense, mostly because Minter does a lot pre- and post-snap, and that helps the pass rush get home. Edge Tuli Tuipulotu leads the team with 70 pressures, followed by Khalil Mack with 39 and Odafe Oweh with 31. Safety Derwin James is still their best coverage player.
DEFENSIVE WEAKNESS
Covering tight ends, where they are 27th in DVOA. Opponents like to stay away from James and target the linebackers and nickels in coverage. Could be a big game for Hunter Henry.
OFFENSIVE STRENGTH
Herbert improvising. Need a controlled rush to keep him in the pocket, but the 6-foot-6 athlete can make plays on the run.
Favorite targets:
Gadsden, the rookie, has a tendency for the drops (11%).
OFFENSIVE WEAKNESS
The offensive line. All three interior players are ranked at the very bottom of the PFF grades for their position. They lost both All-Pro tackles to injury, and are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Their best unit, right now, is LT Jamaree Salyer, LG Zion Johnson, C Bradley Bozeman, RG Mekhi Becton, RT Trey Pipkins III.
Salyer (hamstring) did not play in Week 17 and 18. Harbaugh said Salyer could possibly return for the playoffs. If Salyer cannot play, the Chargers are screwed with Bobby Hart or Austin Deculus starting. They are both awful.
EARLY PREDICTION
Line: Patriots -3.5, 45.5 o/u
I'm surprised the line isn't higher, like 4.5 or 5.5. But there's a lot of respect for Harbaugh and Herbert. The Chargers' formula is basically to play mistake-free on offense, rely on the defense to take the ball away so the offense has some short fields, hang around long enough and hope Herbert makes some plays at the end of the game. If the Patriots keep doing what they're doing, some balance on offense, take care of the ball, Maye plays efficiently, get enough stops on defense, then there's no reason why they shouldn't stay on a roll. Chargers were 5-1 on the road before resting people in the finale. I just don't see how the Chargers can score enough to beat the Patriots. As usual, turnovers will be the name of the game.
"Well, you'd better be able to do that (run the ball) in the tournament, and you'd better be able to take care of the football," Vrabel said. "You'd better be able to create some turnovers, and you have to have efficient quarterback play. That's no secret. And you're going to have to execute in situations like we did at the end of the half, whether that be at the end of the half or the end of the game to get some points. But that's what it comes down to."
Patriots 24, Chargers 17.