The most shocking NFL result in Week 3 was probably the Cowboys' 28-16 loss to the Cardinals in Arizona.
There was good and bad news for the Patriots, who visit Dallas on Sunday, in that game.
Defensively, the Patriots can absolutely duplicate what Arizona did. In fact, that matchup lines up really well for New England. Offensively, there's a lot the Patriots can take from it and use - if they make certain personnel decisions.
The big worry is the Cardinals showed the Cowboys exactly where their weaknesses are and they'll spend the week cleaning those up. And while Dallas will always be a loose operation, can New England count on Dallas committing 13 penalties for 107 yards - six of which put the offense in a bad position and three were the pre-snap variety? Not likely.
The big takeaway from the Cardinals' performance was that it was no fluke. Their gameplans were excellent - in Patriots-like fashion, they went after Dallas' weak points and limited their strengths - to the point it sent me scrambling to find out who their coordinators are. Head coach Jonathan Gannon is the former Eagles coordinator, but offensive coordinator Drew Pitzing was the star of the show. The Norv Turner disciple via Minnesota and Cleveland took what Dallas wanted to do - flash their speed, be uber aggressive with Micah Parsons the chess piece - and used it against them. Parsons, the best defensive player in the league, made some plays (5 pressures, 1 sack), but he didn't impact the game.
So what can the Patriots use? What will they need to tweak?
The Cardinals did a great job of incorporating motion and speed to open up running lanes (30 rushes, 7.4 yards per carry). It wasn't quite on the level of the Dolphins or 49ers, but it was in that family. That's not something the Patriots have shown much. But they do have the ability if they ramp up, especially, Demario Douglas. The Cardinals used speedy receiver Rondale Moore in motion, and out of the backfield to carry the ball. This messed with the Cowboys' rules and caused them to be out of position. Arizona widened the Dallas defense, and that exposed three big weaknesses: the lack of speed for MLB Leighton Vander Esch, the lack of discipline of ILB Damone Clark, and Dallas' weakness on the edge against the run when Demarcus Lawrence wasn't the designed edge player on his side.
If there was a game for the Patriots to use Douglas' speed more, at least in motion, this would be it. I would also love to see Ty Montgomery's speed as the third down back. The speed of both Douglas and Montgomery on the field at the same time would give the Patriots a chance to do some of these things and match Dallas' defensive speed, which is impressive. I'm not optimistic about the Patriots doing this, and they could be made to look slow against the Cowboys.
If there's one area where the Patriots stand to have a big advantage on offense, it's running against the Dallas interior defensive line of Jonathan Hankins (terrible in Vegas and traded), Osa Odighizuwa (undersized and undisciplined) and first-round pick Mazi Smith (bad pad level, still a rookie). If there was ever a game for Cole Strange/Atonio Mafi, David Andrews and Mike Onwenu to dominate up front — which they showed some signs of last week against the Jets — this would be it.
Defensively, a lot will come down to the health of the Dallas offensive line. It was missing three of their best starters — RG Zack Martin, C Tyler Biadasz and LT Tyron Smith — which was an issue. Martin stands the best chance of returning, and he's one of the league's top players.
Mike McCarthy's offensive persona — long, ball-control drives — fits the Patriots well. CeeDee Lamb is a great receiver and he has some complimentary pieces in Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks, but McCarthy's pass offense is unrefined and is an aged West Coast attack. There's very little motion or imagination, so the Patriots should severely limit the big plays in the air as is their norm. They'll also clamp down on the predictable slant and short passes McCarthy loves to use. Would like to see Marte Mapu used as a matchup piece against RB Tony Pollard in the pass game. The tight ends are decidedly average.
Dak Prescott is an above-average QB, but that's it. Making him uncomfortable in the pocket is a priority — he's decidedly worse under pressure — as is taking away his primary read. Patriots should be able to do both. If Prescott has plenty of time dropping back to pass, that's when he's most dangerous. Get Prescott sped up and indecisive could lead to a big day for the Patriots' defense.
GAME PICK
Fanduel Odds: Dallas -6.5, o/u 43.5
Bedard's 2022 record: 15-2 straight up, 14-3 vs. spread. 2023: 2-1, 2-1.
The way McCarthy likes to play the game offensively — multi-play slugfest — aligns perfectly with the Patriots in that the game should be in arm's reach all day. I am worried that the Cardinals showed the Cowboys all their flaws the Patriots were set to exploit, and they'll be much more disciplined on defense in this game. If I'm DC Dan Quinn, the Cardinals loss showed me and the players that Dallas was over its skis in terms of aggressiveness. I would dial things way back, focus on assignment football, and only cut loose in specific situations. It's not like the Patriots are a threat offensively, with a lack of skill talent, to burn you. I would expect Dallas to play much more conservative on defense in this game, which will help keep the scoring down.
Also, the referee in this game is Scott Novak, who did the Patriots' 13-9 win over Dallas in 2019. A few notes on Novak from Sharp Football:
- Novak called 53.5% of his overall penalties on the home team in 2022. That has increased to 56% on the home team in Novak’s three games officiated this season.
- Home teams with Novak were 7-9 on the moneyline and a league-worst 4-12 ATS (25%) in 2022. That has continued into this season with home teams 0-3 on the moneyline and 0-2-1 ATS.
- Novak was 11-5 Under in 2022 with his games combining for an NFL-low 38.5 points. Novak is 2-1 Under this season, with the games averaging 42.5 points.
Combine how the Cowboys like to play under McCarthy and Novak on this game, I feel pretty comfortable in taking the Patriots with the points and the under.
Will New England win? Until I see Mac Jones make the winning plays needed to win a game like this, I can't pick the Patriots to come through. I think he can do it, and it's often just a matter of time for young quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers turned his career around with a big performance against Dallas in 2009), but I can't go on faith. Show me.
BEDARD'S PICK: Cowboys 23, Patriots 20
