When looking at how the Patriots will shape their 2023 roster, before you can even talk about weaponzzz and anything else on your fantasy football wishlist, you have to look at where the roster is right now (i.e. where the team can and can't lineup in a game tomorrow), and then go from there — namely a very daunting 2024 free agency class.
There are some very key players that will be free agents come 2024. Before you can even think about the 2023 roster, you have to look at those players and figure out what you're going to do with them. At least, that's what Bill Belichick did every offseason like clockwork, until about 2017 when he just checked out on the future altogether.
If you're going to let them walk, then you need to need players via the draft this season (or some other fashion, i.e trade) to get them ready for 2024. If you're going to extend them, then now is the time to get that done. Times have changed in recent years with the cap increase: almost every player who gets to their free agency year rolls the dice, plays it out and hopes to cash in. Belichick used to rely on some players taking team-friendly deals for money up front. It's been ages since that happened.
With that in mind, here are the key 2024 Patriots free agents they have to decide on before we get into our annual depth chart and needs list.
2024 Contract Years
OT Trent Brown: People love to hammer Brown and he certainly has stretches where you wonder if he wants to be there, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder — and what else you have on the roster. The Patriots have absolutely zero at tackle, and Brown was pretty solid this season — and he probably would have looked a lot better with a real blocking system and line coach. Patriots have to fully guarantee his 2023 base on March 16th. He carries a $12 million cap hit this year. Brown gives you a lot of options. He starts on either side, and is either average at LT, or good at RT. If you draft a no-doubt LT starter, then he makes you better at RT. If you can only get a RT starter this year (like most teams), you can play winning football with Brown at LT. A lot of this is an internal evaluation of Brown's work ethic. As far as his play, the Patriots could do a lot worse than Brown.
Verdict: Extend Brown now to at least lock down one tackle spot. His OverTheCap.com valuation is $8.3 million AAV.
OG Mike Onwenu: This is where things get tough and pricey. Onwenu's valuation is $11 million AAV. Really good player, has a chance to reach Pro Bowls. But he's a guard, and you just sunk a first-round pick into one spot. You also drafted Chasen Hines last year, and are keeping Bill Murray around.
Verdict: Onwenu plays out the end of his contract, and then you make some choices. The OL tag in 2024 is projected to be $24,618,000. He's most likely a walk-and-comp-pick guy.
S Kyle Dugger: Dugger's a very talented player who has improved annually but has yet to reach his ceiling. He's going to be 28 when he's an UFA. His OTC valuation now is just $2.9 million. Willing to guess his agency will value him at least in the middle of the safety group ($14 million AAV).
Verdict: I definitely try to extend him now and see if he'll accept something around $10-12 million. I'd take that on a 3-4 year deal. If he balks, I'm tempted to trade him now (Patriots have Adrian Phillips for two more years, can re-sign Jabrill Peppers) if I get a good offer. Or he's a walk-and-comp-pick guy. Would contemplate the tag at $19 million.
DE Josh Uche: This is a very tough decision. To this point, the Patriots have only allowed him to be a pass rusher for them (33.1% snaps). Do they think he'll be an every-down player this season? If that's the case, then you extend Uche. If he's just a sub rusher — even one with 11.5 sacks — that has limited value to the Patriots, and it won't add up with Uche. He'll likely feel that he can be a full-time player and flourish in another scheme (ala Chandler Jones). Uche at this point reminds me of Mark Anderson in 2011, who was mainly a sub rusher, had 10 sacks and cashed in with the Bills (and last one season). Uche's valuation, due to playing time, is just $7.7 million.
Verdict: Unless the Patriots have a full-time role envisioned for Uche, he plays out his contract and then you see what happens. Likely a walk-and-comp-pick guy. Need to find next pass rusher. Might think about a trade after his big season.
TE Hunter Henry: Henry had one of the easiest contracts to extend for cap space, and that it was Jonnu Smith and not Henry that did that tells me Henry is eyeing free agency again in 2024 when he'll be 30. Remember, the Patriots snatched Smith first and Henry came to them after not seeing a hot market. He probably thought he'd come here short-term, pump his value, and then strike it rich. His valuation took a huge hit ($6.5 million) thanks to the 2022 offense.
Verdict: Henry looks like he'll walk after this season. Not getting a TE last year was a big mistake, and they need one that can play soon this year. Or they could trade for one. Maybe a Henry for Darren Waller swap?
WR DeVante Parker: Very productive when he was on the field, but it was again a part-time thing — like his entire career. He's a good, solid No. 2 and I would be interested in locking that up if the money made sense (valuation of $4.7 million).
Verdict: Depends how they view his annual injury situation. If they think it's overrated, try to extend him a couple of years at smart money. If not, he plays out his deal and then you see.
WR Kendrick Bourne: Another play who took a huge hit in last year's offense. His valuation is now $2.3 million. Love the talent and the player, and would love to have him here. Right now he's your slot receiver pending Jakobi Meyers.
Verdict: Would love to extend him at short money, but if I'm Meyers, I'm waiting to see what happens this year with my role and this offense.
LB Ja'Whaun Bentley: He's a solid leader in the middle of the defense, but he's decidedly average and the Patriots annually could use an upgrade. Wouldn't be a surprise if the Patriots sign him to a modest extension. He's not getting a better role anywhere else.
Verdict: Needed an upgrade last draft, but the Patriots keep rolling on. Could be a training camp extension.
2023 STARTING LINEUP TODAY
Offense
QB Mac Jones
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
3D RB: Pierre Strong
WR1: DeVante Parker
WR2: Kendrick Bourne
WR3: Tyquan Thornton
LT: Trent Brown
LG: Cole Strange
C: David Andrews
RG: Mike Onwneu
RT: Andrew Stueber
Defense
Edge1: Matthew Judon
Edge2: Deatrich Wise
NT: Davon Godchaux
DT: Lawrence Guy
Sub DT: Christian Barmore
Sub Edge: Josh Uche
MLB: Ja'Whaun Bentley
WLB: Jahlani Tavai
FS: Myles Bryant? (RFA)
SS: Kyle Dugger
CB1: Jalen Mills
CB2: Jack Jones
SCB: Marcus Jones
Basically, the Patriots can't lineup tomorrow at RT (Stueber, Cajuste, McDermott) or FS without some patchwork.
2023 PATRIOTS DEPTH CHART
2023 OFFSEASON NEEDS
Free safety: If McCourty does not return, the Patriots don't have a ready replacement on the roster. Myles Bryant has dabbled there from time to time, but he's pretty small for that spot.
Starting OT: Doesn't really matter which side he plays, just that the Patriots get an immediate starter at OT. Free agency is really pricey. Would like to see this addressed highly in the draft, and look for a budget reclamation project. Ideally, the Patriots find a LT starter and move Trent Brown to RT. Most college OTs need at least a year of development so Brown at LT for a year might have to be the path.
Tight end: Other than Jonnu Smith, the Patriots have absolutely nothing at the position beyond this season. Need to find a future starter or two.
Cornerback: Patriots have enough at cornerback to be decent, but the surest path back to contender is for them to find their next No. 1 along the likes of Revis and Gilmore. Trade might be the best path.
Linebacker: Patriots don't need an immediate starter but someone they view as a Mike starter one year out would be ideal.
Edge: Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings are headed into contract years and put together they are one good edge player. There is nothing in the pipeline here as well.
Slot/playmaker: Kendrick Bourne is in a contract year and whether it's inside or outside, the Patriots need to find one dangerous player that can cut on a dime, start and stop, go from 0 to 60 very quickly. Outside of Bourne, there aren't many make-you-miss types.
Another OT: Relying on Trent Brown to be your rock is a tough position to be in. Either Stueber is a player (we don't know yet) or they need to replace Cajuste and get a developmental OT in here.
Run-stuffing NT: Patriots passed on this need in the draft, then doubled down on Godchaux. Lawrence Guy is on the downside, and there's not much there beyond re-signing the rock-solid Carl Davis. Would love to see one immovable young big man.
Boundary WR: Parker is in a walk year, and unless they have huge plans for Thornton, they could use a Tee Higgins type here.
Developmental QB: With Hoyer and Zappe under contract, there's no rush, but I'm looking for a QB with some elite traits that I can development for a few years and maybe have something.
WLB: Let's be honest, the Patriots stink at linebacker and need to start taking chances on athletes and letting Jerod Mayo coach them up.
Developmental RB: Stevenson will need to be replaced two years out, and I'd like to find a jitterbug for the backfield at some point. How long are we going to do this with JJ Taylor?
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Thought it was a really bad look for Robert Kraft to come out one day after Tom Brady's retirement announcement and pander/beg for him to sign a one-day contract to retire as a Patriot. First of all, give it some time to breathe; don't look so desperate. Secondly, it's an obvious attempt to try to quickly erase the terrible decision that Kraft allowed Bill Belichick to make 3 years ago (and, really, 6 years ago in the pivotal 2017 offseason). If I'm Brady, there's no way I'm doing it. And they're stupid. We all know Brady is a Patriot.
2. If I'm the Patriots this offseason, I'm trying to be aggressive on the trade front to improve the roster and I'd start with teams that decline fifth-year options for some players. Lions CB Jeff Okudah (Matt Patricia's 3rd overall pick), Cardinals LB Isaiah Simmons, and the Jets' OT Mekhi Becton would be the type of talented reclamation projects I'd be interested in if the price were right. That's three top needs right there.
3. I would not get my hopes up about Bengals WR Tee Higgins being made available this offseason. Yes, things could get messy if he asks for a new contract one year out, but this is the Bengals and owner Mike Brown. He does not give in, unless you go the Carson Palmer route, which doesn't really happen anymore. Plus, the Bengals are very close to a Super Bowl. At the worst, you ride out the contract for 2023, and tag him if you need to in 2024. At that time you consider a trade.
4. If the Patriots bringing Bill O'Brien longtime assistant Will Lawing on board (probably as TE coach when Nick Caley is hired elsewhere ... UPDATE, Caley is now the Rams' TE coach) is any indication of the new OC being able to handpick most of his staff, sign me up.
5. Don't expect a firesale in Tampa quite yet if you're dreaming of Mike Evans. I would expect them to be very aggressive in terms of replacing Brady with the hopes of contending this year. GM Jason Licht is not the type to cash in and rebuild.