Bedard: Is Tom Brady's interception streak cause for concern?

FOXBOROUGH — In the end, it all looked pretty good. On Sunday, the Patriots scored the game’s last 24 points to beat the pesky Bills 37-16, and Tom Brady finished with his highest passer rating (106.8) since the Week 11 win in Miami (114.1).

But underneath it all was the simple fact that the Patriots had just 16 points through nearly three quarters against Buffalo, and Brady threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown. It marked the fifth-straight game that Brady had thrown an interception, the most since 2002, and sixth pick he’s thrown in that stretch.

That means Brady has thrown 75 percent of his season total of eight interceptions in the past five games.

Is this reason for concern? Is Brady’s age starting to show more later in the season? We looked back at all six interceptions to see if any patterns emerged. Let’s go through it:

Miami

3^rd and 8, New England 48, 2:48 before halftime
Coverage: Man. Rush: 5.
What happened: After being hit on the previous play, Brady forces a ball to Danny Amendola on an intermediate crossing route with pressure in his face.
Fault: Brady/pressure.

at Buffalo

3^rd and 7 at New England 36, 4:50 remaining in the fourth quarter.
Coverage: Man. Rush: 4.
What happened: After feeling initial pressure and moving to his right to give himself a good pocket, Brady lofted a ball to Rob Gronkowski near the right sideline but Bills CB Tre’Davious White made a nice play on an underthrown ball.
Fault: Brady.

at Miami

3^rd and 10 at New England 25, 8:23 left in first quarter.
Coverage: Cover 1 robber. Rush: 5.
What happened: With good pressure, Brady throws a post-corner route to Brandin Cooks, but Brady slightly underthrows the ball and Xavien Howard intercepts the pass.
Fault: Brady. Ball was slightly underthrown, but Brady might have also expected Cooks to flatten his route.

3^rd and 16 at New England 14, 13:40 left in third quarter.
Coverage: Zone. Rush: 3.
What happened: Brady, with no pressure on him, almost hits Cooks on a deep pass that was thrown some 60 yard in the air, but Howard comes out of nowhere to make a ridiculous interception.
Fault: None. Good play by defense.

at Pittsburgh

3^rd and 2 at New England 33, 5:00 left in third quarter.
Coverage: Man. Rush: 4.
What happened: Brady is hit as he throws to James White, who is double covered, and the pass floats to linebacker Vince Williams.
Fault: Brady/pressure. Brady should have eaten the ball or thrown it away.

Buffalo

3^rd and 7 at New England 15, 10:37 left in second quarter.
Coverage: Zone. Rush: 4.
What happened: Brady has plenty of time, but his throw to Kenny Britt is jumped by safety Jordan Poyer. Brady may have wanted Britt, a newcomer, to run a crisper route.
Fault: Brady. Route could have been better, but Brady should have seen Poyer lurking behind Britt.

The biggest thing that jumps out is that all six of Brady's interceptions have come on third down, and they've come in his own territory. This tells me that Brady is trying a little bit too hard to make a play. It's a very fine line in quarterbacking, especially when you're one of the best in the league, when it comes to making a play and just moving on and punting the ball away. I'm sure if we looked back at all the gamebooks and film, that there are quite a few third downs where Brady made a great play to keep a drive alive or threw a touchdown. That's why sometimes you've got to live with the good and the bad, and maybe it's just bad luck at this point.

But a lot of these just seem like unnecessarily forced throws. Amendola was really well covered. The throw in Buffalo really wasn't needed (Brady shouldn't have even been in the game) and probably should have been thrown away, but it tempting to just throw a pass up Gronkowski. The first throw to Cooks in Miami could have been thrown more toward the sideline, and the second was a bit of a punt/prayer. Pittsburgh was trying to make something out of nothing, and the one on Sunday was basically the defense being where Brady didn't expect it to be.

"I mean, nobody wants to throw interceptions," Bill Belichick said of Brady's interception streak following Sunday's win. "Tom doesn’t want to throw them. Nobody wants to throw them. Look, there’s things in the game that come up every game that we need to improve on and correct offensively, defensively and in the kicking game. I don’t think that will ever change. We always want to take care of the ball. ... We’ll just keep working and do a better job."

Also of note, five of Brady's six interceptions have come with at least six yards to go on third down. So this is also a failure of the Patriots to be more effective on the first two downs. If it's less than five yards on third down, then the defense has to gamble a little bit more and that would probably create some better opportunities for Brady.

Some will also look at Brady's age (40) and wonder if he's starting to tire toward the end of the season. It's certainly fair to bring up when you look at his December numbers compared to recent years:



Last season, Brady posted his highest December pass rating (99.9) since the 2011 season (105.0), and that probably had to do with the fact that he was playing his ninth through 12th games of the season because of his four-game suspension.

Brady's passer rating this month (81.5) is the lowest since that 2002 season (67.5), when he threw interceptions in his final three games as the Patriots went 2-2 down the stretch to finish 9-7 and finish out of the postseason for the only time in Brady's career (in 2008, Brady was injured).

So there is ample ammunition there if people want to say: See, Brady is a real 40-year-old.

But I'm not ready to go there yet.

This feels more like the 2015 season, when the Patriots were beset by injury and lost in the AFC Championship Game to a much healthier Broncos team.

Not only does Brady not have Julian Edelman, but the absences of Chris Hogan, Martellus Bennett and James White (this week) have forced Brady to try to make do with receivers like Phillip Dorsett and Kenny Britt, who don't know the playbook that well or didn't have offseason reps with Brady, and tight end Jacob Hollister, a rookie who was catching most of his passes from Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett in training camp.

No wonder Brady feels like he needs to play some hero ball.

Yes, Brady's increasing interception rate is certainly concerning, and he should probably dial back a little on trying to force the issue. But if the Patriots can increase their production on first and second down, and get a guy like Hogan back (Malcolm Mitchell would also be a huge bonus) to give Brady more reliable targets, this stretch could very well be just a temporary blip on the way to the postseason.