MLB Notebook: Internal analytics have Sox expecting bounce back from their offense, bullpen a trade chip, and more

Since the Red Sox season ended unceremoniously in early October, Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been saying that he expects a number of position players to have better seasons in 2018 than they had in 2017.

It’s not just blind faith on Dombrowski’s part.

While common sense might suggest that Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and others will show improvement over last year, there’s data to back Dombrowski’s beliefs. When he projects improvement, it’s not merely wishful thinking on his part.

“That comes out of some conversations we’ve had,’’ said Zack Scott, the Red Sox director of baseball research and development. “I think (improvement) is a fair thing (to assume) that we will get bounce-back (seasons) from some guys, actually most of our guys. I would guess that, with the exact same lineup as we had last year, we would score more runs (next year).’’

Scott heads the Red Sox analytics department and part of his off-season work has been spent on trying to determine what the Sox can expect from their returning players.

Step One for Scott and his staff is to “eliminate as much of the noise that’s in the performance – remove the luck, remove whatever we can, the randomness that is inherent in baseball statistics. One of the ways we do that is to try to look at a more granular level, more of the quality of contact. You look at the exit velocities and launch angles of batted balls and determine the typical result of a certain batted ball is  and then you kind of basically say, ‘This collection of batted balls, you’d expect this kind of stat line from a guy.’

“You account for, in our case, half our games at Fenway. You account for the ballpark. So, Red Sox players playing in Fenway half the time and the mix of ballparks that we typically play in on the road, based on his batted balls, you’d expect such-and-such.  And sometimes a guy’s performance lines up with that and sometimes it doesn’t.

"But what we’re trying to do is normalize a little bit for the fact that maybe there were some good defensive plays made that wouldn’t normally be made on those plays. Maybe there was just bad luck – they hit the ball hard, but right at somebody. So we start with normalizing their performance for all of those factors and then we use that to kind of put it into our proprietary predictive model and establish a baseline of expectations.’’

Scott acknowledges predicting individual performances can be tricky, but with some refinement over the years, “they’re generally pretty good. And what that tells us is who should have had a better batting line last year.’’

And one of the things Scott’s research has shown is it’s reasonable for a number of Red Sox regulars to be better in 2018 “based on how consistently they hit the ball hard. So, that’s one factor that we can look at.’’

Another element is some diagnostic reports determine why a particular player has struggled. That offers a map for players to improve performance simply by changing their approach or mindset at the plate.

Without offering specifics, Scott said “there are definitely some glaring things that can be addressed,’’ including a passivity that seeped into the Red Sox offensive strategy. For instance, the Sox swung at the fewest number of first-pitches of any team in baseball, and new manager Alex Cora has already stressed the value of “hunting’’ for good pitches to do more damage early in the count.

“There are some players who almost forget they have power,’’ Scott said, “and were just trying to put the ball in play.’’

Another variable is health. Bogaerts played through a hand injury for more than a month mid-season, and even after that healed, appeared to have fallen into some bad habits at the plate. Similarly, newly re-signed first baseman Mitch Moreland remained in the lineup despite a broken toe and saw his performance suffer.

“In an example like, say, Xander with his hand,’’ Scott offered, “we’d look for whether there was more soft-contact because of that? Were there more swings-and-misses? Was there something in his performance that was different than in the past that could possibly be related to that? I don’t know if we’ll be able to pinpoint, exactly, what the hand (injury) was causing. But it would probably be a fair assumption (that it detracted from his play), if you saw things like that.’’

Finally, there’s the matter of age – at both ends of the spectrum. What can the Sox expect from 21-year-old Rafael Devers and Hanley Ramirez, who turned 34 Saturday?

“We have a standard aging model,’’ said Scott, “but certain skills age differently, so there are different models for different skills. So if a guy has a skill (like speed) that ages earlier, that can be problematic. We factor all of that. We’re going to downgrade performance for a guy who’s in his middle-30s (though with Ramirez, there’s also an injury component, since the veteran slugger played with an ailing left shoulder, since surgically repaired).

“For a 21-year-old, it’s a little trickier because he doesn’t have a large sample size of performance. It’s a curve we’re applying to different skills – contact skills, quality of contact, (ability to take) walks, plate discipline-type metrics – and every year, we adjust.’’

It’s likely that the Red Sox will add another significant piece to the lineup, but even without such an addition, the same, returning 10 or so everyday players can expect an upswing in performance.

“I think, last year, we barely had anyone over-perform,’’ said Scott. “That happens in a year when you score fewer runs that you had expected. That doesn’t usually doesn’t happen multiple years in a row. So, that alone is reason for optimism.’’

Further fueling the expectations is the fact that the Sox have only three projected everyday players – Ramirez, Moreland and Dustin Pedroia – are over 30. The rest, including the core --  represented by Bogaerts, Bradley, Mookie Betts, and Andrew Benintendi -- are still in their mid-20s with room for improvement.

“Some of those guys,’’ Scott noted, “are just getting to their prime years. They’re getting into that good part of that aging curve.’’

*******

While the Red Sox remain mostly focused on acquiring a power bat to bolster their lineup, the team may be in a position to deal some bullpen pieces.

Chatter around the game leading up to the holidays had the Red Sox in discussions with a number of teams, with the Sox reportedly willing to move some relievers.

It’s an area of strength for the Sox, especially if Tyler Thornburg has a successful return from thoracic outlet syndrome.  Add in Carson Smith and Craig Kimbrel and the Sox have a strong cast of power right-handers for the late innings.

That doesn’t begin to count: Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Joe Kelly, Austin Maddox, and Brandon Workman.

Assuming there’s at least one lefty in the mix (Robby Scott? Brian Johnson?), that’s nine right-handers for the bullpen, and the Sox really have room for a half-dozen. With Kimbrel, Smith and Thornburg, that leaves three spots with six candidates.

It’s not known what the Sox are looking for in return. They could use some added infield depth, and re-stocking the minor league system by importing more prospects isn’t a bad idea, either.

Or, perhaps the Sox could be making a deal like this with an eye toward getting some prospects to include in a trade for an established power hitter in the event that the bidding for free agent J.D. Martinez gets out of hand.
*******

When the Grapefruit League schedule ends late next March, will the last vestiges of major league baseball be leaving the state of Florida? After all, the two Florida-based teams are in total rebuild mode.

The Miami Marlins have gutted their major league roster, trading away three veterans (Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon) in an effort to reduce projected losses by slashing payroll. Most believe the Marlins are in for a few dark years, not unlike what the Houston Astros went through to reach championship status.

Of course, fire sales are nothing new for Marlins’ fans, who witnessed the same approach taken after the franchise’s two championships in 1997 and 2003.

The Rays began their overhaul by trading off icon Evan Longoria, the single-most identifiable player in team history. With Longoria gone, could an exodus involving Chris Archer, Alex Colome and others be far behind?

At least the Marlins have a taxpayer-funded ballpark in which to play. The Rays are still searching, without success, for an alternative to Tropicana Field, which is both outdated and poorly located in downtown St. Petersburg.

It seems amazing that two teams in the Sunshine State could be in such poor shape. Twenty years into their existence, the Rays have one American League pennant to their credit, while the Marlins have qualified for the post-season only twice in their 25-year history.

Florida should be a fertile market for baseball. But the state’s two full-time major league teams have, for a variety of reasons, spent much of their collective history stumbling around in the dark and the near future doesn’t offer much promise for improvement.