Scouting Report: This isn't your usual late-season Patriots-Bills matchup

After a generation of mostly meaningless December football between these two teams, Sunday certainly will not be the typical lets-get-the-backups-some-playing-time December game between the Patriots and Bills. For one thing, Buffalo is still scrapping for its playoff life, and could dearly use a win on Sunday to stay alive in the postseason chase. There’s also the whole revenge subplot when it comes to Rob Gronkowski, which we deconstructed here. And because of a scheduling quirk, this will mark the second time in four weeks the two teams face off. To that end, around Gillette Stadium, players say the message has been clear: Remember what happened when we played Miami for the second time in three weeks? Yeah, don’t get too cocky. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at Buffalo:


OFFENSE
Scheme

The first time around, the Bills used a lot of three-wide sets against the Patriots in hopes of testing the New England secondary. I can understand why they were trying to do it, especially after they fell behind by double digits. But it’s just not their best attribute. Buffalo’s strength is on the ground: Overall, the Bills are last in the league in passing (171.2 yards per game), but sixth when it comes to rushing (129.1 yards per game). Buffalo averages 18.9 points per game (23rd), and 300.3 total yards per game (29th).

Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor (6-0, 221): The on-again, off-again season of Taylor — who was injured against the Patriots back on Dec. 3 — is apparently back on again, as the quarterback will start on Sunday. Taylor was 9-for-18 for 65 yards before suffering a knee injury in his last game against New England. He remains a threat to run (he’s third among quarterbacks with 376 rushing yards), and against a team that plays a lot of man coverage, if things start to break down, he can break off chunk plays on the ground. Mobile quarterbacks have occasionally given the Patriots trouble over the last year-plus — New England has to practice containment and gap discipline, and make sure young ends like Deatrich Wise and Trey Flowers don’t get too far upfield when they rush. …Nathan Peterman and Joe Webb serve as the No. 2 and No. 3 quarterbacks, respectively. Peterman has a tendency to play scared, while Webb is a bit of a wild card when he’s back there — in five snaps against the Patriots earlier this month, he had three carries for 27 yards and was 0-for-1 as a passer.

Receivers
WR Zay Jones (6-2, 201): Has been struggling of late. Some has to do with a recent run of poor quarterback play and some other quirky stuff (the blizzard against the Colts), but there’s also a bit of a rookie wall thing going on for the first-year receiver, who has just five catches in his last four games after a decent first half. Good young route runner. 25 catches on a whopping 70 targets.
WR Kelvin Benjamin (6-5, 240): Physically, one of the biggest receivers the Patriots will face all season, New England struggled with him at times when he was with the Panthers earlier this season (four catches, four targets, 104 yards). He didn’t practice on Wednesday after not playing in the first game. Nine catches on 17 targets.
WR Andre Holmes (6-5, 208): Spotty deep threat who’s dropped off lately with just one catch in the last six games. Depending on the health of some of the other receivers, he might not play at all Sunday. 12 catches on 22 targets.
WR Deonte Thompson (6-0, 205): A secondary piece of the passing game, he struggled to hang on to the ball the last time these two teams met (two catches on eight targets). Has become far less of a factor when Benjamin is in the lineup. 21 catches on 43 targets.
TE Charles Clay (6-3, 245): The quintessential safety blanket for Taylor. He doesn’t run as well as he used to but still has the ability to move the chains if coverages break down. 39 catches on 56 targets

Running backs
RB LeSean McCoy (5-10, 215): The whole offense really runs through McCoy, a dynamic presence who is one of the best in the league, especially in space. 259 carries for 1,057 yards and six TDs. (Just a random thought — I wonder if the Bills will take a page out of the Steelers’ book. Against New England, Pittsburgh utilized pitch plays to Le’Veon Bell on a number of occasions and were able to get big yards in the process.)
RB Travaris Cadet (6-1, 210): Occasional third-down option who works in relief of McCoy. 21 carries for 93 yards and 13 catches on 15 targets.
FB Mike Tolbert (5-9, 243): The Bills have chosen to go with either Cadet or Tolbert on a game-by-game basis for much of the season. (Last time out against the Patriots, Buffalo went with Cadet, while Tolbert was a healthy scratch.) Pretty much a traditional smash-mouth fullback who has spent much of the season clearing the way for the likes of McCoy. 56 carries for 211 yards and one TD.

Offensive line
LT Dion Dawkins (6-4, 314): After starter Cordy Glenn went down with an injury, the rookie has stepped in and played well, starting nine games and holding up against some good pass rushers.
LG Richie Incognito (6-3, 320): One of the best left guards in the league, but is tied for the league lead in holding calls with six.
C Eric Wood (6-4, 304): A first alternate for the Pro Bowl, Wood is good, but was overwhelmed at times by Malcom Brown and the rest of the Patriots interior defensive linemen the last time around.
RG Vlad Ducasse (6-5, 329): Uneven this season, he’s a slightly better in pass protection than he is against the run. Another one who will be tasked with trying to contain Brown, although if we assume Alan Branch won’t play, things will be a little easier for the Ducasse/Wood combo.
RT Jordan Mills (6-5, 316): Has struggled in pass protection. Look for the Patriots to try and target him as the soft spot along the line.

DEFENSE
Scheme

There’s a lot of skill here, but as we saw in the first matchup between these two teams, they are still a few players away, particularly at linebacker (They could also use another player or two to complement Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams up front). Look for the Patriots to go one of two ways — if the Bills are operating in nickel or dime for the afternoon in hopes of guarding against Tom Brady, New England will put the game in the hands of Dion Lewis and the rest of the running game. If Buffalo crowds the line, look for Brady to try and get the ball in space to the make-you-miss guys like James White, Danny Amendola and Lewis in space against linebackers. And there’s always Rob Gronkowski, who crushes the Bills on a regular basis. The strength of this group lies in the secondary, where a completely new collection of defensive backs have come together to produce a quality group. Overall, the Bills are 23rd in the league in terms of yards allowed (351.1 per game), 17th in passing yards allowed (229.1 per game), 25th in rushing yards per game (122.0 per game) and 16th in points per game allowed (21.9). Buffalo is fifth in the league in takeaway ratio (tied with the Patriots and Chargers) at plus-seven.

Defensive line
LDE Eddie Yarbrough (6-2, 259): The rookie has struggled at times this year. If the Patriots are interested in targeting one of the two edges, they’ll go after him.
LDT Kyle Williams (6-1, 300): Quintessential pro who continues to be a rock in the middle for Buffalo. Not the same guy he was a few years ago, but the 34-year-old still has the burst needed to penetrate as a pass rusher as well as eat up space when needed.
RDT Adolphus Washington (6-4, 297): Has had an inconsistent second season, but he played well in the first Patriots-Bills matchup on Dec. 3 with a sack and multiple tackles for loss. Leads the team with seven penalties, including two for illegal use of hands.
RDE Jerry Hughes (6-2, 253): He’s not a world-class game-wrecker, but considering the fact that New England’s pass protection has struggled at times this year on the edge, he’s someone who has to be accounted for on every snap. Look for a tight end chip or back to help out in trying to neutralize him.

Linebackers
Matt Milano (5-11, 232): After Ramon Humber suffered a thumb injury, he was supplanted in the starting lineup by Milano. The BC product is still on the young side, and the Patriots could try and exploit him as a potential mismatch in the passing game.
Preston Brown (6-2, 256): Leads the Bills in defensive snaps. Has the size, speed mix skill set to be competitive against Rob Gronkowski (with some help), and he was one of the few defenders tasked with the goal of slowing the big tight end the first time around.
Lorenzo Alexander (6-1, 300): An overachiever who has lost a step or two, but remains a smart and savvy tackling machine.

Secondary
LCB Tre’Davious White (5-11, 192): The Bills’ best corner. Fourth in the league in passes defended and with four picks, he showed the first game that he’s not above being physical with New England pass catchers. Has a shot at Defensive Rookie of the Year if he can finish the season strong.`
RCB E.J. Gaines: Suffered a knee injury against the Dolphins and didn’t practice Wednesday. If Brady is going to target one of the starting corners, he’s going to be the one.
SCB Leonard Johnson: Their nickel corner. Was on the field for 50 percent of the snaps in the first game. If he’s out there, look for a lighter box — depending on the down-and-distance situation, that could open up the run game.
SS Micah Hyde (6-0, 197): Enjoyed a rebirth this season in Buffalo. He’s second in the league in picks with five and second among all safeties in pass breakups with 12. The Pro Bowler is excellent in coverage, and led Buffalo in tackles back on Dec. 3 with 12.
FS Jordan Poyer: Bill Belichick has pointed out how well Power and Hyde do when it comes to disguising their looks and being solid complementary pieces to one another, and a look at the film confirms just that. Three picks and 11 passes defensed on the season, third-best on the team in both departments.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Kicker Stephen Hauschka is 11th in the league with an 88.5 average (23-for-26) on field-goal attempts. He’s also only one of six kickers with at least 25 extra-point attempts who hasn’t missed one this season. … Punter Colton Schmidt is 25th in the league with a 44.4 average and 19th with a 40.6 net. He hasn’t had a punt blocked this year. … Former Patriots receiver Brandon Tate is the primary punt and kick returner. He averages 19.8 yards per kick return (15th in the league) and 9.9 yards per punt return (eighth in the NFL). He does not have a return for a touchdown this season.

PATRIOTS OFFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

Pound it: If Buffalo is playing nickel or with two-deep safeties, the Patriots should be able to run the ball like they did the first time. With Rex Burkhead on the shelf, this could be a nice day for former Buffalo back Mike Gillislee, who could finally get his shot after sitting for the last month-plus.

Protect the quarterback: Particularly on the edge, and especially when it comes to the Nate Solder/Jerry Hughes matchup. Dwayne Allen has become a terrific force as a blocker while working for much of the last couple of weeks next to Cam Fleming, but he could get some reps alongside Solder this time around.

Lean on Gronkowski: Gronkowski has always been a handful for the Bills to try and slow down, and this time around should be no exception. It’s unlikely the Bills have discovered any sort of kryptonite to slow him down this time around.

PATRIOTS DEFENSIVE GAMEPLAN POINTS

Do a better job on the edge: The Patriots struggled at times on the edge against the Bills the first time around. Not sure Eric Lee is the answer.

Gap discipline and contain on Taylor/McCoy: If the Patriots are in man coverage and things break down in the pocket, linebackers and defensive backs must be on high alert to break off coverage and work to limit any potential damage Taylor might be able to do.

Watch for surprises: Because they made a quarterback switch between the first and second time they met, the Dolphins were able to do a little shuffling of personnel, and they managed to catch the Patriots off-guard on a couple of occasions. They’re probably not going to face the same sort of change-up this time around, but they have to be cognizant of the fact they might see something this time around they did not initially encounter earlier this month.