Scout's Take: Three things for each team to focus on for Patriots-Bills

With a key AFC East clash looming between the Patriots and Bills Sunday in Buffalo, we talked to an NFC scout who has spent time watching New England and Buffalo, and he offered three points of emphasis for each team heading into Sunday’s game. The scout’s take is in italics, and our additional notes with some context from the locker room -- and statistical totals -- are underneath.



Patriots
1. Stop the Buffalo run game. Whether that’s committing an extra man in the box to try and slow down (LeSean) McCoy or getting a big performance from the defensive line, they have to be able to make the quarterback throw, because the Bills really don’t have a good passing game right now.

Part of the recent struggles in the Buffalo passing game can be tied to their decision to go to Nathan Peterman for a game in place of Tyrod Taylor, but even with Taylor under center for the bulk of the season, the Bills are near the bottom of every major passing category this year. Meanwhile, McCoy has helped power an impressive rushing attack that is roughly middle-of-the-pack statistically across the board. Stopping the run game and preaching containment and gap discipline when it comes to defending Taylor have been the two big takeaways from the New England locker room this week.

2. They have to control the clock. I’m not saying the traditional “control the clock” approach where you slow the game down. The Patriots can score fast, and if they can score quickly on Sunday and put pressure on the Bills to force them into the passing game early, they can control the tempo. Buffalo doesn’t have the offensive firepower to throw the ball and win in that sort of situation. And with the success Rob Gronkowski has had against them in his career, look for a steady diet of Gronkowski. Buffalo has tried a bunch of different things over the years, and none of it has worked. They haven't had a linebacker who can run with him.


The Patriots haven’t trailed since the early stages of their October win over the Chargers. An ability to jump to an early lead with some fast football out of the gate will force Buffalo to try and throw the ball to get back into the game. It’ll also take the Bills Mafia out of the game, a crowd that can have a sizable impact on the outcome of a game. Devin McCourty said Wednesday it was one of the more raucous places to play, a place where they greet the opposing teams’ bus with middle fingers. You silence that group early, it’ll go a long way toward helping your cause.

3. Give your special teams unit the opportunity to make a play. Whether it’s an onside kick, a fake field-goal or a fake punt. The Bills are a pretty disciplined team, but they have a lot going on. They can be susceptible to some sort of special teams trick plays.

The Patriots were able to pull off their first successful fake punt of the season last week against the Dolphins, so that might be out of the question in back-to-back weeks. But some other special teams trickery could very well be in play. After some sluggish play and a surprising amount of penalties, New England’s special teams have been trending in the right direction as of late: against the Dolphins, there was the fake punt and against the Broncos, the Patriots blocked a punt, recovered a fumble on a muffed punt and returned a kickoff for a touchdown. And Stephen Gostkowski booted a 62-yarder against the Raiders.

Bills
1. Win the battle of field position, consistently, all afternoon. Buffalo has to keep New England pinned and force the Patriots into having to go the length of the field and put together some extended drives.

According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots average starting field position is 28.88, 14th in the league. This is where the Buffalo kick team has to come through and take a page out of Gostkowski’s book: Buffalo kicker Stephen Hauschka needs to pop them up so kickoffs land inside the 15 to pin New England as deep as possible. Make the Patriots go the length of the field, and make it as hard as possible for Tom Brady and the offense.

2. The Bills need to take away the between-the-numbers passing game of the Patriots. They have to force Brady to throw deep and sideline passes. He can do it, but he’s less accurate on those passes than he is over the middle.

The way Brady is going this year, there’s a pick-your-poison element when it comes to inside the numbers against outside the numbers. But according to Pro Football Focus, you’re better off when you try to take away the middle of the field: outside the numbers this year, he’s at 71 percent. Between the numbers in the same stretch, it’s 73 percent. You take what you can get when it comes to defending Brady, but that’s one small thing.

3. Buffalo needs to find a way to win the turnover battle. It’s almost impossible to pick Tom Brady off, so maybe you can force a fumble. And you absolutely can’t give one up.

With Brady’s razor-sharp precision — New England’s passing game is tops in total passing yards and fewest picks, something that hasn’t bee done since Johnny Unitas and the 1963 Colts — this is an acknowledged long shot. But it is worth mentioning that the Bills are fifth in the league when it comes to interceptions with 12. As our friend Mike Rodak of ESPN Buffalo reminds us (more on that later this week), the last time the Bills beat the Patriots in Buffalo, they picked him off four times in a 34-31 win over New England.