Bedard: Is the time now for Drake Maye against overrated Broncos defense?

DENVER — Let's be honest, if the Patriots' defense — with the aid of porous opposing offensive lines — wasn't suffocating against the run and pass, New England could have gone home early against either the Chargers or Texans.

And Drake Maye's play would have been among the reasons.

He certainly made some plays against both teams to help put the Patriots over the top and into today's AFC Championship Game, but he didn't win those games. Not like this stat, which I've heard repeated a lot.

Maye didn't win those games, the team did — mostly because of a defense that made Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud look like bumbling rookies. Maye fumbled six times, threw an interception inside his own 10, didn't complete 60% of his passes in either game (only other time he did that was against Tampa), and had a negative completion percentage over expected in back-to-back games for the first time all season. Through his first two playoff games, Maye has been playing at a C level, maybe C+. Sure, he went against two very good defenses, but that's the postseason. Patriots aren't playing the 32nd-ranked offensive schedule anymore.

Not sure that's going to be good enough on the road against the Broncos with a Super Bowl berth on the line, even against Jarrett Stidham.

It's time for Maye to level up.

Can he do it? There are more reasons for, than there are against.

• Once was a fluke, twice was a pattern.

We've marveled all season about Maye's ability to immediately address a deficiency in his game, and I'm guessing more than a few were shocked that, against the Texans, it was a case of, "He's still putting the ball on the ground?"

After being an error repeater for the first time all season — and hanging out his buddy, Will Campbell, out a little bit to dry — there's no way that's going to happen again. I'm sure Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels, who have played and coached a lot of games in the viper's den that is Empower Field, have been all over Maye this week to quicken his decision-making. If you thought it was bad at home, it could be worse at Mile High with all the noise and, oh, by the way, it's very cold here (and dry) and that will be the case during the game. If Maye plays with the same clock and borderline recklessness with his pump fakes and reloading in the middle of the pocket, even Stidham could beat the Patriots. Really, the ideal path for a Broncos victory is Maye turning the ball over for a touchdown, or very close to it.

As Julian Edelman once recounted on his podcast, "I remember Bill Belichick used to say, ‘When you are carrying the football, you’re not only carrying the football for the team and everyone in the building, but you’re carrying it for everyone in the region. The fate is in your hands.'"

There's no excuses when it comes to ball security. Yes, one was on Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson last week, but the other were on Maye. That has to stop. The higher the ladder you climb in the postseason, the more maturity you need out of your young players, especially when it's a quarterback. If Maye just gets back to managing the game, making his 3-4 elite plays in the normal course of the game, the Patriots are going to San Fran. If he doesn't, they are not.

• The Broncos' pass defense is overrated - if you can block them.

If you think the Patriots feasted off an easy schedule this season, so did the Broncos - especially their defense. Their stats got really fat against the Jets (-10 passing yards), Chiefs and Chris Oladokun (57), Titans and Cam Ward's first start (62), Chargers without Justin Herbert (104), Bengals with Jake Browning (106) and the Raiders (114).

Against at least halfway decent quarterbacks, the Broncos have given up plenty of points and passing yards:

Colts' (Daniel Jones) 1-point win: 306 yards, 29 offensive points
Commanders' (Marcus Mariota) 1-point loss: 276 yards, 26 offensive points
Chargers' 3-point win: 270 yards, 23 offensive points
Giants' (Jaxson Dart) 1-point win: 268 yards, 32 offensive points
Bills' 3-point loss: 266 yards, 30 offensive points
Jaguars' 14-point win in Denver: 265 yards, 34 offensive points

What was the difference in those games, compared to the rest of the season?

• Broncos played about 5 percent more man coverage
• Broncos sent 6-man pressures more than normal
• Broncos blitzed more (almost 40%)
• Broncos played way more single-high safety coverage (more on that in a minute)
• The opponents got the Broncos to play more base defense
• In those six games, the Broncos allowed an average of 133 rushing yards, compared to 96.2 season average
• Sacks per attempt were down to 8.4% from the season average of 11.2%
• The six teams converted 50% of third downs, and they were way better in the red zone and goal-to-go than Denver's season averages

The huge keys for replicating what those teams did:

- Run the ball well enough
- Get the Broncos into base, where they are slower with the linebackers
- Get them to single high and zone, ideally with Talanoa Hufanga deep, and pick them apart.

If Josh Allen were more accurate and took care of the ball last Sunday, he would have thrown for well over 300 yards. There were open Bills running all over the place.

Josh McDaniels will crack the code. If Maye is accurate and takes care of the ball, he's going to have a lot of opportunities down the field.

Of course, the Bills had one of the best offensive lines in the league (and LT Dion Dawkins against Nik Bonitto), and ran for 183 yards with James Cook. So it can't just be the Drake Maye Show. That's not the way to expose this defense like the others did.

• Reason for worry: Maye's never played in an environment like this.

There are very few places in the NFL like Mile High. Seattle would be up there. New Orleans when the Saints are going well. Maye played at UNC in the ACC. It's not exactly the SEC. These were Maye's away games for the Tar Heels:

The only real snake pit would be Clemson's Death Valley, and it was one of, if not the worst, game of Maye's career. He completed just 16 of 36 passes (career-low 44%) for 209 yards, one touchdown, one interception for a career-worst 96.8 passer rating (college computes that differently, it's like a 70 or 80 in the NFL).

The more you play in these types of games and environments, the better the quarterback will be. Of course, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick never won in Denver. And it's not because they had great teams.

It's just a tough place to play, especially when it's cold and dry, like it will be. The altitude will play a factor, for Maye and his teammates. The crowd can be deafening and mess with your silent snap count. If you don't get off to a good start, at least through the first quarter, you could be in trouble. The last three teams to win at Mile High all had an early lead at some point:

Colts 2014 - Trailed 7-0, led 14-7
Ravens 2012 - Trailed 7-0, led 14-7
Steelers 2005 - Led 10-0, and 24-3 at halftime

It's not panic time if the Patriots fall behind early, as long as they punch back quickly.

But we have no idea is going to react to this environment, because he's never been through it. Winning at Buffalo and Baltimore at night was a good indicator, but those places are not the same as what Maye will see on Sunday.

What worries me about the Broncos

OLB Nik Bonitto and DT Zach Allen against the rookies: Those are two of the best pass rushers at their positions in the league, and they are the quickest way for this game to get ruined. I do like this matchup better for Campbell because Bonitto is mostly a speed player (Campbell has struggled against power and length), but he's going to need a lot of help.

Sean Payton as an underdog: He lives for this stuff. I don't like going against Payton with nothing to lose. I feel like he's going to pull out all the stops for this one, including more than a few trick plays. I would also like to wager that he's calling his best shot play early, perhaps on the first play of the game. How that play goes could be a big indicator for this one.

The Broncos' offensive line: Don't tell anyone, but I think they are a little overrated, too, and could come back to Earth since Bo Nix is not there with the threat of his legs to help keep the rush honest, and Nix was one of the best QBs at avoiding sacks this season. But if the Patriots don't get enough pressure with four, and have to start sending blitzes, then that will make the reads for Stidham a bit easier - if the Broncos block it up.

WR/KR Marvin Mims: He was the All-Pro punt returner last season and is still dangerous on both returns. Plus, he's a pretty good screen player, which would help out Stidham.

S PJ Locke: He can be fooled, but his range is elite if you hang a ball up there too much.

Vance Joseph's pressure packages: I'm not so worried about the blitzes, although he'll send a variety of players from all over the place. It's more the zone exchanges. Joseph is great at only sending four, but doing it in a variety of ways that could trip up a young quarterback on the road.

Where the Patriots can take advantage

The cornerbacks not named Patrick Surtain II: Boundary corner Riley Moss and slot Ja'Quan McMillian are ripe for the taking. Moss is very boom or bust. I could see McMillian not being able to chase down Pop Douglas at some point.

Linebackers and safeties in coverage: If the Patriots can get the Broncos into base defense, then the Patriots' tight ends and running backs could make some explosive plays in the pass game.

Broncos' running game: I really like RJ Harvey, especially in the pass game, but he's not a full-time back and this is not a great run blocking offensive line.

A pressured Stidham: Could be the biggest factor in the game.

Top matchups

LT Will Campbell vs. OLB Nik Bonitto: The rookie's gauntlet continues.

LG Jared Wilson vs. DT Zach Allen: Allen is unsung in many places, but he's one of the league's best interior rushers.

WR Kayshon Boutte vs. CB Riley Moss: The Broncos like to travel Surtain on big downs, and I think he'll be seeing a lot of Stefon Diggs. That's going to leave Boutte one-on-one with Moss. Go time.

TE Hunter Henry vs. S Talanoa Hufanga: When the Bills saw him in man coverage, they went after the powerful but slow safety.

DT Christian Barmore vs. RG Quinn Meinerz: Oh baby, a heavyweight matchup. Meinerz is among the very best in the league.

DT Milton Williams vs. LG Ben Powers: I think Powers is the weak link on the line, and Williams can power him back to Stidham.

CB Christian Gonzalez vs. WR Cortland Sutton: Sutton has been a favorite of mine for years, but he's been disappearing a lot lately. By far the best receiver on the team, especially in big spots.

CB Marcus Jones vs. SWR Pat Bryant: Bryant was on his way to a big game last week before getting hurt. Is he 100 percent?

LB Christian Elliss vs. RB RJ Harvey: The little back can make people miss, especially in the pass game. Elliss, who will be going against another brother (Jonah), has been flying around for weeks. 

BEDARD'S GAME PICK

Season: 13-6 straight up, 10-9 spread.

Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 42.6

So the line keeps dropping. Interesting. Guessing it's more about the weather.

This game kind of goes against my tenets because I think the Broncos have the advantage on both lines. It's all about Stidham. I have confidence in him grinding for 60 minutes, especially if it's a tight game, or the Patriots jump out to a lead. Stidham reacts to pressure, and he's always late on throws beyond his first read. If the Broncos had a really good running game, I would give them more of a chance. But I also don't think this is going to be a Maye masterpiece in this environment, so the game will stay tight. But the defense will make a few plays, and Maye will cash in a few times.

Patriots 20, Broncos 17.