The Patriots' dream-like season of great fortune got kicked up a notch on Saturday when it was announced that Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix fractured his ankle on a meaningless play in Denver's OT win over the Bills, and will miss the rest of the season.
That means whoever wins between the Texans and Patriots on Sunday will face former Patriots draft pick Jarrett Stidham in the AFC Championship Game. Stidham did not attempt a pass this season; his last pass attempt in a regular-season game came Jan. 7, 2024, when he started the final two games when Russell Wilson was benched. That means, for the AFC title game, it will have been 749 days since his last attempt, more than double the longest span between pass attempts for a QB starting a playoff game since 1950.
I mean, you really can't make this up. Hollywood scriptwriters would reject the story of the Patriots' 2025 season because it's that ridiculous (if I'm the winning NFC QB, I'd be making sure my life insurance is in order).
Of course, none of this means anything for the Patriots if they don't take care of business against the Texans at 3 p.m. in Gillette Stadium.
What will it take? Let's take a look at some of the key areas:
PRESSURE C.J. STROUD WITH THE BLITZ
When the Texans' starter is kept clean, he's ninth in the league in passer rating (109.5) and tied for 4th in turnover-worthy play percentage (1.5).
When Stroud is pressured, his passer rating drops to 19th out of 24 qualifiers (60.9), and he's 21st in TOWP% (5.7).
(For comparisons, Drake Maye is 4th in passer rating, and 10th in TOWP when kept clean. He's second in passer rating and 11th in TOWP% under pressure).
It seems like Stroud's threshold for pressure is fairly low. If he's pressure between 30 and 41.9%, the Texans are 2-4. In a weird anomaly, the Texans are 4-0 when Stroud is pressured over 41.8%. I'm willing to say that's because of the Texans' defense, as we saw in the win over the Steelers, when Pittsburgh pressured Stroud at a 48.6% rate, which was the second-highest rate of the season.
Most opponents have done it with the blitz. When Stroud was pressured, it came via the blitz 43.5% of the time, which is the highest rate in the league. This would indicate that Stroud and the Texans have not mastered the pass protections in the Patriots' scheme (OC Nick Caley has borrowed heavily from that) like Maye has under the tutelage of Josh McDaniels, and teams feel the Texans' protections can be attacked.
There's also this: Stroud was ninth with 16.7% DVOA without a blitz, but 22nd at 0.0% DVOA with a blitz.
Making this an even easier route for the Patriots is that the Texans will be without standout receiver Nico Collins, so Houston will have to rely on two rookies (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel), veteran slot Christian Kirk, and TE Dalton Schultz. If the opponent is blitzing, it's vital for the quarterback and receivers to be on the same page as far as hot routes. Do the Texans trust two rookies to do that?
And the Patriots have upped their blitz percentage in recent weeks. While averaging 28.8% blitz on the season, the Patriots have sent extra rushers at least 38% in Weeks 13, 15, 17, 18 and the wild-card round (seaon-high 45.5%).
I would not expect that to change. I think the Patriots will be coming after Stroud in a very similar fashion to Justin Herbert. The Texans' offensive line is below average, especially in pass protection at left tackle and center.
WIN BOTH TRENCHES
As usual in close playoff games, the team that holds the advantage in both trenches will emerge with the victory. That will be the case in this one.
If the Texans can't protect Stroud, they're going to have a tough time winning. Same goes with Maye against this Texans defense, where the pass rush isn't all that ferocious with a 34.7% pressure rate, which is less than even the Patriots' (9th, 35.9%). This is not the Vikings (41.7%) or Broncos (40.6%) that we're talking about. Yes, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are really good, but the Texans' pressure rate for the season was about the same as the Chargers — and pressure was not a factor last week, despite the sacks.
Like the Chargers, the Texans affect the quarterback more with their tight coverage and some different looks, especially on third down, which causes confusion for the quarterback. But Houston is not as exotic as the Chargers post-snap.
The less pressured QB will win on Sunday, and the team that runs the ball better — including the quarterbacks — will also win.
Texans are 4-0 when their offensive rush success rate is at least 50%. The Patriots' defense average is 48.7%.
Houston is 5-0 when its EPA/rush is at least 0.04. That's the season average for the Patriots' run defense.
Oh, and CJ Stroud does not like to scramble all that much. He's a pocket passer.
On the other side, the Texans are just 4-4 when they have a defensive rush success rate below 55%. The Patriots have done that seven times this season, and they are 5-2 in those games with both losses being anomalies (blown lead to Bills, turnover-fest vs. Steelers).
The Texans are 6-0 when their defensive EPA/rush is over 0.16, and just 7-5 below that. The Patriots have lost one game (that Buffalo outlier that keeps coming up), when its EPA/rush is over -0.20 (12-1). They are 3-2 under that.
This isn't that complicated. The team that protects the QB and runs the ball better will have control of this game. To do that, both teams are going to take the field with the aim of being the more physical team, the more hard-hitting team. I really can't tell you which team has the advantage in that realm. Some would say the Texans, but the Patriots' physicality has only increased in recent weeks.
This is going to be a street fight.
RUN DRAKE, RUN
By now, I'm sure you've heard that the Texans are one of the worst defenses in the league at defending scrambles, and there's data to back that up (besides Maye rushing 5 times for 38 yards last year against the Texans). The Texans allowed 9.2 yards per scramble. Only the Bills (another zone-heavy team) were worse.
I think this is the week to unleash The Full Drake. The Patriots have been very wise to keep Maye's health at a premium, and holding back on any real designed run game with Maye unless the team needed it later in the season in a big game.
Remember all the McDaniels intel the Texans have? Unleashing a QB-based run plan — at least for stretches, or certain points in the game (how about the first drive of the game?) — would absolutely be a good counter to how Nick Caley, Ben McDaniels and Nick Caserio think McDaniels is going to approach this game. Obviously we haven't seen the Patriots practice since August, but they worked a lot this summer on outside zone, boots off that and RPOs. If they've dabbled in it during the season in practice, it could be ready to trot out and used to surprise the Texans.
With only Stidham standing in the way of the winner of this game and the Super Bowl, it's now or never for a lot of things.
What worries me about the Texans
- A couple of weird stats: The Texans are 3-2 in games in which they lose the turnover margin, with the losses coming to the Rams (by 5 points) and Jaguars (3). Normally teams are worse than that, and those losses aren't too shabby. Also, the Texans' offense on third down. They are 12-0 when they convert third downs over 27% (season average: 39%). Patriots are 9-0 when they hold opponents under 38% (season average: 37.1%). Something's got to give. Texans have been over 50% on third down recently (Weeks 15-17, WC).
- Anderson and Hunter: This is pretty self-explanatory.
- Christian Kirk in the slot: Marcus Jones is damn good, and I don't expect that to stop. But he usually exploits a speed mismatch in the slot. That won't quite be the case against Kirk, who can run as well. Should be a good matchup.
- RB Woody Marks getting going: He had his best game of the season last week against the Steelers. If that continues, that would not be ideal.
Where the Patriots can take advantage
- Go deep: A lot of these we've been over already, but I would be aggressive down the field in the pass game and going after RCB Kamari Lassiter, the safety opposite Calen Bullock (could be Jalen Pitre or Myles Bryant in space), and definitely linebacker Henry To'oTo'o covering backs near the sidelines.
- LT, LG and C: Between rookie Aireontae Ersery, Tytus Howard and Jake Andrews, the Patriots have plenty of opportunities to attack the Texans' line in the run (29th in rushes for zero or negative yards) and pass.
Top matchups
LT Will Campbell vs. DEs Hunter/Anderson: Big Country sounded a little sensitive this week when asked about the Chargers game. Let's see if the rook can back up his words.
C Garrett Bradbury vs. DT Sheldon Rankins: Rankins is still a really good player and one of their best against the run.
WR Stefon Diggs vs. DB Jalen Pitre: Diggs was invisible last week against the Chargers. That can't happen again.
WR Kayshon Boutte vs. CB Kamari Lassiter: This is going to be a great matchup. I can't wait. The Patriots are going to test Lassiter.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. LB Henry To'oTo'o: He shows up a lot on their explosive plays allowed video, and Stevenson is on a heater, especially in the pass game. Look for Henderson matched up on his too.
CB Christian Gonzalez vs. WR Jayden Higgins: If the Texans are going to win this game, basically, Higgins is going to have to become a star overnight. Highly doubt it the way Gonzalez looked last week.
CB Marcus Jones vs. WR Christian Kirk: Another great matchup.
DT Milton Williams vs. C Jake Andrews: Both of the Patriots' big guys should feast inside.
DE K'Lavon Chaisson vs. LT Airontae Ersery: The vet needs to teach the rookie a thing or two.
S Craig Woodson vs. TE Dalton Schultz: The TE is another person who needs a big game for Houston to win. The rookie safety played great last week.
BEDARD'S GAME PICK
Season: 12-6 straight up, 9-9 spread.
Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 40.5
This is a very similar game to last week, even though it's a step up in competition: I just don't see a way for the Texans to get to their magic number of 20. They've won their last 16 games if they score 20 points, including 12-0 this week. Maybe if the Texans had Nico Collins (imagine if they had him and Tank Dell?), they might have a chance. The only thing stopping the Patriots from traveling to Denver next week to face Stidham is Drake Maye doing what he did last week in terms of ball security. But considering his track record for making corrections, what are the chances of that, like 100-1? As long as the Patriots get pressure on Stroud, and take care of the ball, I'll be booking travel plans to Denver around 6:15 p.m.
Patriots 24, Texans 17.
