Bedard's Breakdown: Early key storyline vs. Texans, defense vs. Herbert and Maye's turnovers

Before we review the Chargers' game, a few early thoughts on the Texans, who will visit Gillette Stadium on Sunday night, starting with some family ties — football and blood — between both teams that could play a big role.

Josh McDaniels is set to face former assistants Nick Caley (offensive coordinator), Cole Popovich (offensive line), and Jerry Schupinski (senior offensive assistant), along with brother Ben McDaniels, for the first time in their careers. Caley (tight ends, eight years), Popovich (assistant offensive line, five years) and Schupinski (assistant quarterbacks, six years) studied under McDaniels with the Patriots. Schupinski was also with McDaniels with the Raiders. And, of course, you have Texans general manager Nick Caserio, who was the personnel chief under Bill Belichick for years, and was also in the coaching booth on gamedays. The Texans also have two other personnel staffers (including Shane Vereen) and seven former players with Patriots ties.

But I only really care about Caley, Schuplinski and Ben McDaniels, and here's why:

Offensive coaches around the league are always studying their counterparts around the league (Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, Ben Johnson and Josh McDaniels are popular) to see what they are doing, and what they might be able to copy — especially those from the same tree. I can almost guarantee you that Caley, Schuplinski and, especially, Ben McDaniels have been studying the Patriots' offensive film all season to see what Josh McDaniels has been up to, and what he's perhaps added to the attack, especially with a mobile quarterback in Drake Maye.

So they can go to head coach DeMeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke and tell them, in great detail, which concepts McDaniels has relied on this season, and what he prefers in certain situations. Now, a lot of this information is out there through advanced scouting and analytics (and McDaniels has a long history in his job), but the former assistants will have a lot of inside knowledge on how exactly McDaniels coaches his quarterback in certain situations. Add in that all of the former assistants will have a pretty good idea how McDaniels will gameplan for the fast and physical Texans defense, and you have a pretty good chess match going.

I wonder if this causes McDaniels to come up with more than a handful of gameplan-specific plays, which is the norm. Could he put in an entire new package — perhaps, featuring Maye's legs — for this game, or something he's been holding onto for a while? The possibilities are endless. Interesting subplot come Sunday.

• Of course, the Patriots get a Texans team that will likely be without standout receiver Nico Collins, who left the Steelers game on a cart with his (at least) second concussion of the season. It’s all coming up Patriots. Might as well parlay the Bills this weekend as well because you know the Patriots are hosting the AFC Championship Game the way this season has gone. I don’t think the Texans, outside an '85 Bears/'00 Ravens performance on defense, can win this game without Collins. He's their only offensive weapon that dictates coverage. Even if Christian Gonzalez is out as well, and I don't think he will be, this is a huge net positive for New England.

• The Chargers have a really good defense (4th in DVOA weighted for end of the season, after Patriots' game). The Texans (2nd behind Seahawks) are great. They’re one or two levels higher. Their top two corners are outstanding. Don’t have to blitz (31st). Their linebackers and safeties are awesome.

A sampling from the wild-card game, and weeks 15-17 combined:

DVOA against receivers: 6th WR1, 11th WR2, 3rd WR3, 2nd TEs, 3rd RBs.

Some weaker spots:

- Pressure rate (35%) is only slightly higher than league average;
- 12th in explosive play rate allowed, 17th in explosive pass plays;
- Rushing defense is merely good: 10th in success, 9th EPA per rush, 16th in yards per attempt;

But DVOA has Houston 2nd against the pass and the run, and it played the third-toughest defensive and team schedule this season (Some opponents: Rams, Jaguars 2x, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos, Bills, Colts with Daniel Jones, Chiefs, Chargers - 7-4 in those games).

The Texans have won 10 straight games. 

- Against the Steelers, Texans QB CJ Stroud looked like he was feeling the pressure and choking. I don’t know how you come back from that. I’ve seen him a few times on crossover films and he’ll make some terrific throws, but you can confuse him. The Chargers almost beat the Texans this year solely because Stroud threw two picks. And, like Herbert, he’s not going to get many answers from rookie OC Nick Caley. Another good matchup for the Patriots as far as QB/OC and the New England defense.

- Drake Maye played this defense last year in his starting debut (someone named Zach Thomas played LT). From what I remember, he made plays for both teams (two interceptions, lost fumble, four sacks). I do remember him and Kayshon Boutte burning top corner Derek Stingley for a 40-yard TD down the right sideline. Demario Douglas (6 for 92, 35-yard touchdown) also had a big day in a 41-21 game, in which the Texans led 27-7 in the third quarter (they did not have No. 2 CB Kamari Lassiter). The Texans had 20 QB pressures (4 sacks, 5 hits, 11 hurries), led by Will Anderson (5; 3-1-1) and Danielle Hunter (3, 1-0-2).

- More on Maye from my breakdown (offense, defense), of course, there have been a ton of changes for both teams since then (Texans have a whole new o-line, basically, and no WR Tank Dell):

Maye was also very good against the blitz: 6 of 10, 113 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT - rating of 99.2.

Maye also started to settle down more in the final 20 minutes of the game. Before the final drive of the third quarter, Maye was +3.5/-14 for me, so he was +6.5/-3 after that. So that good be a positive indicator going into the Jaguars game.

Bottom line: Maye is a playmaker and came in and made plays immediately. He also handled adversity well, and settled down.

Now for the flip side.

Maye also had the most minus plays I've recorded since 2021 (extra half points for the first interception and the strip-sack fumble that didn't need to be taken). Jones (2021 Week 16 vs. Buffalo) and Brissett (49ers) were next with 14. Maye's minus play percentage (37.8%) was the highest since Jones last year against Dallas (45.8%) and New Orleans (38.5%).

Maye also had that many miscues, facing by far the lowest pressure rate allowed this season (35.6%) - and he accounted for 20 percent of that himself (he factored into all four sacks). Maye was not great against pressure: 2 of 6, 26 yards, 4 sacks, 1 throwaway on 14 dropbacks.

Maye's Expected Points Per Dropback of -0.22 ranked 23rd in Week 6 through Sunday, ahead of only Daniel Jones, Spencer Rattler and Dak Prescott - but it was right in line with Brissett's -0.23 in his five starts.

JUSTIN HERBERT NOT GOOD ENOUGH, BUT WHY?

I made a big deal about Justin Herbert's postseason reputation last week, so here's an update: he did not play well at all (he had a final grade similar to Maye with the interception and two fumbles factored in), and he left plays on the field. I still believe Herbert will be a bona fide elite quarterback in this league, but no one would succeed in his current situation (offensive line, mediocre weapons, an OC in Greg Roman not helping at all like McDaniels did with Maye in the second half). With Roman fired Tuesday, there's hope for Herbert — but this will also be his fifth offensive coordinator heading into his seventh season (I'd vote for Brian Daboll).

Herbert graded out almost identically to Maye in last year’s blowout loss to the Chargers, when Maye faced about 50% pressure (not much blitzing). What I wrote about that:

Offensively, they had no answer to how the Chargers might pressure the Patriots. Forget about trying to scheme someone open ... that's actually funny. Alex Van Pelt is still calling ridiculous plays the Patriots stand no chance to execute, like that absurd lateral fumble.

Quarterback (2 out of 5)

Not one of Drake Maye's better days, but far from terrible. Had three standout throws: in-cut to Bourne, getting it to Stevenson under pressure and the drop by Polk. ... I did put the lateral fumble on him, he has to make sure that ball gets someplace safe - the ball is in his hand. ... I thought he scrambled too early a few times. He was late to Hunter Henry once, and missed Bourne on an open out.

Sound familiar?

What I saw in Herbert was a quarterback that had no confidence in his protection, had no clue what to expect from NE after the snap in coverage, and got no help from his playcaller (who is in the booth BTW like it’s freaking college football). Herbert has no chance with Roman, who is known more for his run game. But now he's gone.

The question you have to ask is, why? You can just say he sucks, but that’s not a reason, at least not yet. I’m no longer ruling it out at this point. I think we can all agree that Peyton Manning was a playoff choker, until he wasn’t when he faced Rex Grossman to “win” his first Super Bowl, and the Broncos' defense dragged him to another.

Can we call agree that Herbert doesn’t have Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Tarik Glenn, OC Tom Moore, OL coach Howard Mudd, etc?

So what are we even talking about? Herbert has not had even close to a fair fight to this point. Maybe he will now.

Herbert wasn’t that bad in the first half - in fact, he slightly outplayed Maye in the first half.

I had him for four plus plays, and seven minus plays - and that’s being generous. Three were when the score was 16-3, and two were scrambles. His only plus play was his red zone scramble when he found blocking TE Tucker Fisk, who promptly fell to the ground. If he’s not just off IR, and a walking refrigerator (where they heck do the Chargers find these guys, FB Scott Matlock included?), he catches that, walks in for a TD and everyone is talking about it, like the Maye to Diggs sideline flip against the Jets, but of course the Chargers have walking fridges out there.

I did not mark him down for this, but Herbert had a 9-yard scramble when McConkey was wide open on the scramble drill. He just never saw him because he was running for his life. Maye makes that play this year, after all his training with keeping his eyes down field - does he do last year with Alex Van Pelt? I doubt it.

Herbert did miss some plays that, to win playoff games, you need to make. I’ve watched the goal-line throw to Keenan Allen a bunch of times. I can’t figure out what he’s doing. I think there’s a decent chance he was throwing to Ladd McConkey, who stopped in man coverage against Marcus Jones (Allen pulled his hands down, indicating that was possible). Both of those are double outbreaking routes. Jones had great coverage, but McConkey had leverage. If he’s throwing to Allen, that ball needs to be low to the pylon (throw low to the goal line, high to the end line). 

He did miss an open McConkey when he threw to Fisk for 7. The sack he took with 38 seconds left in the first half was all on Herbert. He has to throw the post to Quintin Johnston against Charles Woods (Carlton Davis had his bi-monthly locker room visit) with no safety help over the top. Did anyone on the Chargers realize Davis was out and tell Herbert to go after Woods? Didn’t appear so. That doesn’t happen with the Patriots. He underthrew McConkey on that sideline play that Jones broke up. He had another minus decision with McConkey open. He was late on the Johnston throw that Gonzalez almost picked. A decision/throw to Allen as well.

I’ve never seen Herbert throw that poorly on the run. Normally, he’s nails. I’m not sure if that was wind (neither guy threw it all that well) or what. I do think Jones hurt him on that hard tackle at the 3-yard line early. Think he blew up his quad.

But I also don't want to take anything away from the Patriots' defense, which you do if you say, "Herbert sucks." I thought their defensive plan, the way they attacked the Chargers' protection, and their overall execution was outstanding and should not be minimized. I had the entire Patriots defense for just seven minus total, and two of those were penalties. That's an outstanding job by Mike Vrabel, Zak Kuhr, and the entire defensive staff. 

Here are the positional ratings against the Chargers:

OFFENSE

Quarterback (2 out of 5)

I don't think he played well until the drive with the Hunter Henry touchdown, which was Maye's best play by far. Second-best was his 8-yard scramble where he stepped out of a sack. ... This was his fifth-lowest-graded game of the season. ... Some of his bigger plays, and most of his yardage, came from either checkdowns, or plays where Chargers defenders fell down (42 yards to Kayshon Boutte, 20 yards to Efton Chism, 4th down to Kyle Williams). I did like his 17-yarder to Henry (the TE was wide open on the 3rd and 13 conversion, a poor defensive play) and 16-yard out to Boutte. ... I didn't give Maye the normal turnover markdown for his interception, but a) I'm not sure that would have been complete and b) it could have been picked off because I don't think Maye saw Derwin James behind Austin Hooper. The two fumbles were definitely on Maye (video down below), and the second one could have been a Falcons-esque disaster if Jared Wilson didn't hop on it. Maye had another six poor throws/decisions. Again, I do think the wind was a factor. Maye's ball was hanging in the air and, of course, he missed Hooper on the TD. Everything needs to be tighter against the Texans, but the Chargers also have a really good defense, so credit to them.

Running backs (4 out of 5)

Same song, different verse: Rhamondre Stevenson is awesome, had some tough runs and really good pass blocking. ... TreVeyon Henderson made the block of his life on the Henry TD, but he also didn't hold up once on an incompletion.

Receivers (2 out of 5)

Henry and Boutte led the way, but DeMario Douglas (drop), Stefon Diggs (drop, route), and Austin Hooper (2.5 stuffed runs) were disappointments. The Chargers definitely tried to take Diggs away. The one time Maye and Diggs were not on the same page, I side with Maye. Diggs needed to continue his cross against man coverage.

Offensive line (3.5 out of 5)

Yes, there were five sacks but, over the course of the game, the pass protection was pretty good (25%). Both Will Campbell and Jared Wilson gave too much cushion to good power rushers and paid the price (they also did this earlier in the season but adjusted). ... Morgan Moses was outstanding with a clean sheet and three plus run blocks, follwed by Mike Onwenu and Garrett Bradbury.

DEFENSE

Defensive line (5 out of 5)

As everyone expected, the Patriots absolutely dominated this matchup. The surprising thing? Only two minus plays - K'Lavon Chaisson and Milton Williams on two run gaps. The execution was awesome, everyone was impactful in some way. I know Williams had two sacks, but he and Christian Barmore didn't do much outside of 2 or 3 plays. That did surprise me. ... Chaisson, Cory Durden and Anfernee Jennings were the most impactful.

Linebackers (5 out of 5)

Only two minus plays for this group, and one was Christian Elliss' facemask penalty. Robert Spillane and Eliss were flying around, attacking the line, coming in unblocked on runs mostly because the Chargers are that bad. ... Their zone pass drops were also outstanding, like they knew exactly what Roman was going to call all the time. They knew his tendencies, and it helped freak Herbert out.

Secondary (5 out of 5)

Only three minus plays, one being Carlton Davis' DPI. ... Marcus Jones, Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson were all terrific. I mean, they were just blankets in man, match man and even zone coverage. They were on top of it all.

THREE UP

CB Marcus Jones: Was a multi-facted attack weapon, doing a little bit of everything: huge tackle on Herbert at the 3, blanketed McConkey in the end zone on the 4th down play to the point he quit his route, pass breakup, sack and forced fumble, half stuff and another hurry. Man, he's fast on his blitzes.

DE K'Lavon Chaisson: He was the most impactful guy up front, factoring in on two sacks, and had a huge forced fumble.

LBs Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss: They were flying around and got the edge over a cast of characters (Stevenson, Moses, Henry, Boutte, Davis, Gonzalez, Durden, Williams. Jennings).

THREE DOWN

LT Will Campbell: He wasn't terrible or anything, but a rough night at the office with 4.5 pressures and eight minus plays overall. He did have some really nice reps in the run and pass game.

LG Jared Wilson: Three sacks are three sacks. No, he's not getting benched. He actually played pretty well overall in his return.

TE Austin Hooper: Rough blocking night with 2.5 stuffs allowed to get the nod over Diggs and Maye.