I'm going to cut to the chase: If you're expecting Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to come to Gillette and give the Patriots the game on Sunday, solely based on a narrative you've heard from simpletons that he's something resembling a postseason choke artist, you might be in for a surprise.
Or maybe not.
He might very well throw four interceptions in a Chargers blowout loss — as he did last year against a terrific Texans defense — but that doesn't necessarily mean the loss would be on him.
God, I hate these stupid narratives. But we get them anyway when people talk about the Chargers blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in 2022, or how Herbert threw four interceptions at Houston last year.
People just love to ignore the needed context. Or maybe they didn't watch the game. Or have forgotten what actually happened. Or, mouthbreathing, just look at the box scores, despite football being the ultimate team sport.
I watched both games, along with three games this season (losses to the Jaguars and Texans, win over the Eagles), and I can tell you this much: Herbert is a legitimate MVP candidate for dragging that offense, along with a good defense, to 11 wins, including a sweep of the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, a win over the Broncos in the only game Herbert started against them, the Eagles and Cowboys.
Let's start with this: Greg Roman, who came in with Jim Harbaugh last season, was Herbert's fourth offensive coordinator. This is his sixth season. Never mind that Harbaugh is the sixth head coach Herbert has had in college and the pros. He started with Anthony Lynn with the Chargers, then there was the overmatched Brandon Staley, and then interim Giff Smith.
Remember Mac Jones and the How to Ruin A Young Quarterback 101? Herbert has endured the 400-level class.
JAGUARS 31, CHARGERS 30
Let's start with the Jaguars game. He lost his left tackle and a receiver during the game. The Chargers backs rushed 20 times for 55 yards (2.8 average). He was hit nine times, including a few where he was almost beheaded.
The Chargers only got four possessions after halftime because their beat-up defense couldn't get off the field. Herbert drove the Chargers to the Jaguars' 38, 32 and 20 before punting on the final possession. LA had two field goal attempts in four drives. A closer look at them:
First possession, leading 27-7: No one open on first down, throw away. On second down, with a free rusher bearing down on him, Herbert delivered a pass that Keenan Allen dropped for about 5 yards. On third down, the Chargers called a screen that wasn't going anywhere.
Second possession, leading 27-14: First down was a run for -1. On second down, Herbert was hit as he threw incomplete to Austin Ekeler. On third down, Joshua Palmer didn't hitch his route, and Herbert threw it away. Jaguars get a field goal to go up 30-14 with 2:58 left in the third quarter.
Third possession, leading 30-20: Herbert overcomes two 2nd and 15 situations due to penalties to drive the Chargers deep into Jaguars territory. After two straight runs, Herbert is flushed from the pocket with no one open and throws it out of bounds. There was a holding flag anyway on Ekeler, and it was declined. This is where Staley comes in. What does a field goal do for you? Why not go for it on 4th and 3? In any event, DICKER MISSES THE 40-YARD FIELD GOAL.
Fourth possession, leading 30-28 because Joey Bosa got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after the TD, and the Jaguars went for two points and got it: On first down, there's immediate pressure from a defensive tackle on a whiffed block, and Herbert is sacked for -7. They ran a screen for 4 yards on second down. On 3rd and 13, the right tackle is pushed into Herbert's lap, and he has no choice but to check it down for 8. Punt with 4:04 left. Herbert never sees the ball again.
TEXANS 32, CHARGERS 12
Houston finished 2024 with the No. 2 defense in DVOA across the board: total, pass and rush. The Chargers finished with the 21st offense: 20th in pass, 22nd in rush. Going into this game, LA was down RG Trey Pipkins and WR Joshua Palmer (third in season targets). This was a mismatch going in.
Backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards rushed 16 times for 48 yards (2.8 ypc). This is what Herbert had for weaponry against that defense:
It was Ladd McConkey, and then hope and pray with Will Dissly, DJ Chark (who was out of the league eight months later), and Quintin Johnston, who had a 10% drop rate that season.
Some notes from that game: