I'm going to cut to the chase: If you're expecting Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to come to Gillette and give the Patriots the game on Sunday, solely based on a narrative you've heard from simpletons that he's something resembling a postseason choke artist, you might be in for a surprise.
Or maybe not.
He might very well throw four interceptions in a Chargers blowout loss — as he did last year against a terrific Texans defense — but that doesn't necessarily mean the loss would be on him.
God, I hate these stupid narratives. But we get them anyway when people talk about the Chargers blowing a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars in 2022, or how Herbert threw four interceptions at Houston last year.
People just love to ignore the needed context. Or maybe they didn't watch the game. Or have forgotten what actually happened. Or, mouthbreathing, just look at the box scores, despite football being the ultimate team sport.
I watched both games, along with three games this season (losses to the Jaguars and Texans, win over the Eagles), and I can tell you this much: Herbert is a legitimate MVP candidate for dragging that offense, along with a good defense, to 11 wins, including a sweep of the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, a win over the Broncos in the only game Herbert started against them, the Eagles and Cowboys.
Let's start with this: Greg Roman, who came in with Jim Harbaugh last season, was Herbert's fourth offensive coordinator. This is his sixth season. Never mind that Harbaugh is the sixth head coach Herbert has had in college and the pros. He started with Anthony Lynn with the Chargers, then there was the overmatched Brandon Staley, and then interim Giff Smith.
Remember Mac Jones and the How to Ruin A Young Quarterback 101? Herbert has endured the 400-level class.
JAGUARS 31, CHARGERS 30
Let's start with the Jaguars game. He lost his left tackle and a receiver during the game. The Chargers backs rushed 20 times for 55 yards (2.8 average). He was hit nine times, including a few where he was almost beheaded.
The Chargers only got four possessions after halftime because their beat-up defense couldn't get off the field. Herbert drove the Chargers to the Jaguars' 38, 32 and 20 before punting on the final possession. LA had two field goal attempts in four drives. A closer look at them:
First possession, leading 27-7: No one open on first down, throw away. On second down, with a free rusher bearing down on him, Herbert delivered a pass that Keenan Allen dropped for about 5 yards. On third down, the Chargers called a screen that wasn't going anywhere.
Second possession, leading 27-14: First down was a run for -1. On second down, Herbert was hit as he threw incomplete to Austin Ekeler. On third down, Joshua Palmer didn't hitch his route, and Herbert threw it away. Jaguars get a field goal to go up 30-14 with 2:58 left in the third quarter.
Third possession, leading 30-20: Herbert overcomes two 2nd and 15 situations due to penalties to drive the Chargers deep into Jaguars territory. After two straight runs, Herbert is flushed from the pocket with no one open and throws it out of bounds. There was a holding flag anyway on Ekeler, and it was declined. This is where Staley comes in. What does a field goal do for you? Why not go for it on 4th and 3? In any event, DICKER MISSES THE 40-YARD FIELD GOAL.
Fourth possession, leading 30-28 because Joey Bosa got an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after the TD, and the Jaguars went for two points and got it: On first down, there's immediate pressure from a defensive tackle on a whiffed block, and Herbert is sacked for -7. They ran a screen for 4 yards on second down. On 3rd and 13, the right tackle is pushed into Herbert's lap, and he has no choice but to check it down for 8. Punt with 4:04 left. Herbert never sees the ball again.
TEXANS 32, CHARGERS 12
Houston finished 2024 with the No. 2 defense in DVOA across the board: total, pass and rush. The Chargers finished with the 21st offense: 20th in pass, 22nd in rush. Going into this game, LA was down RG Trey Pipkins and WR Joshua Palmer (third in season targets). This was a mismatch going in.
Backs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards rushed 16 times for 48 yards (2.8 ypc). This is what Herbert had for weaponry against that defense:
It was Ladd McConkey, and then hope and pray with Will Dissly, DJ Chark (who was out of the league eight months later), and Quintin Johnston, who had a 10% drop rate that season.
Some notes from that game:
First possession
On 3rd and 1 at the Houston 14, Dobbins is dropped for -2, and Harbaugh kicks the field goal on 4th and 3. Lead 3-0.
Second possession
From the Houston 22, Herbert is sacked for -9.
2-19-HST 31 (7:29) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete deep left to W.Dissly [A.Al-Shaair].
Center Bradley Bozeman blows a twist inside, and Herbert is dead to rights, but he avoids the sack and finds Dissly, who promptly drops the ball for a would-be first down at about the 12-yard line.
A 10-yard completion gets them a 39-yard field goal. Lead 6-0, but the Chargers could have been up 10-0 or 14-0 at this point.
Third possession
2-9-LAC 37 (2:58) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to H.Haskins.
Herbert doesn't see the deep in-cut eventually opens.
3-9-LAC 37 (2:53) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to D.Chark (W.Anderson, M.Bryant) [W.Anderson]
Will Anderson comes free and Herbert's arm is hit while throwing for the second time on this drive.
3-4-LAC 41 (12:51) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to Q.Johnston (K.Lassiter)
Despite getting hit while he throws, Herbert makes a perfect throw in the tightest of windows, but it is dropped.
Fifth possession, still leading 6-0
Chargers intercept CJ Stroud to get the ball back.
1-10-HST 40 (11:39) J.Herbert pass deep left intended for Q.Johnston INTERCEPTED by K.Lassiter at HST 10. K.Lassiter to HST 10 for no gain (Q.Johnston)
An obvious called shot play with only a two-man route that calls for Herbert to throw across the field. CB Kwame Lassiter makes a ridiculous catch for the interception, but Herbert should have found a way to throw this ball away despite about four guys bearing down on him. Still, it's not catastrophic since it's at the Houston 10 and they get no points.
Sixth possession, 6-0
3-8-LAC 44 (6:32) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to J.Dobbins.
Joe Alt beaten by Danielle Hunter, no time.
Eighth possession, 6-7
2-10-LAC 30 (:52) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete deep middle to L.McConkey.
Reserve guard Jamaree Salyer is put on his rear immediately by a defensive tackle.
3-10-LAC 30 (:45) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to Q.Johnston [A.Al-Shaair].
Bails early from pocket, misses McConkey open.
THIRD QUARTER, 6-10
4-2-HST 34 J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to Q.Johnston (D.Stingley).
Former quarterback JT O'Sullivan, who does great work at The QB School online, blamed the receiver, who was jacked up off the line by Derek Stingley. No chance and bad play.
LATE THIRD, 6-13
3-6-LAC 33 (3:16) (Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 27 for -6 yards (D.Autry).
Man free. RG whiffs immediately
(:21) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short left intended for L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by E.Murray at LAC 38. E.Murray for 38 yards,TOUCHDOWN.
This was definitely on Herbert, as he skies McConkey for the pick-six. Didn't help that the LT was pushed back and in his lap, but Herbert double-clutched, which caused the high throw.
FOURTH QUARTER, 6-20
1-10-HST 39 (13:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short right intended for W.Dissly INTERCEPTED by D.Stingley at HST 33. D.Stingley to LAC 13for 54 yards (J.Dobbins).
There's a blitz, Herbert does everything right, but the ball goes right through Dissly's hands for nearly another pick-six. This had nothing to do with Herbert.
FOURTH QUARTER, 6-23
3-26-LAC 14 (10:50) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep middle to L.McConkey for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Hunter].
After two sacks — one on Herbert, he's almost decapitated thanks to C and LG that whiffed as Herbert was hit high and low — Herbert has a prayer answered for a touchdown.
FOURTH QUARTER, 12-32 WITH 3:42 LEFT
2-10-LAC 44 (2:55) (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep right intended for D.Chark INTERCEPTED by D.Stingley at HST 17. D.Stingley to HST 33 for 16 yards(H.Haskins).
The game was over, Herbert threw one up to Chark, and Stingley made a terrific catch. The ball was probably thrown a little flat, but he had to try to make a play.
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Let me also point out that Houston had a 55.6% pressure rate, an absurd number where most quarterbacks have a losing effort. The time to sack allowed was just 3.64 seconds — the Chargers' season average was 4.66. And the Texans thought so little of the Chargers' "weapons" that they played man nearly 60% of the time until the game was over in the fourth quarter. Outside of McConkey, they were completely snuffed out.
Yes, I'm a Herbert fan. I think he's ridiculously talented, and he's mostly been a victim of circumstances over the years with coaching changes, and poor personnel, especially this season with his two great tackles being lost for the season. To get another perspective, here's O'Sullivan after the wild-card loss to the Texans.
"You talk about a unit just letting each other down all over the place," O'Sullivan said. "I think it starts and stops, probably for most people, at Herbert, probably not playing up to the standard that he set for himself, and for what you would aspire to elevate your game in the playoffs. But across the board, the run blocking unit, the pass protection unit, the perimeter, the drops, besides for (McConkey), the tight ends, the drops (three), the blocking. I mean, it is up and down the unit, the offensive unit, they were in trouble. They did not play well. And that's what happens. You end up in your ass kicked in the playoffs, and it feels like a good season just went down the toilet. And another season of prime Justin Herbert, no mas.
"I think I've already said my piece about Justin, just not playing well enough. I don't think he got any help from anyone, anywhere: play call, scheme, run game, pass pro, perimeter, besides for (McConkey). It was him and (McConkey) out there fighting for their lives, and Justin didn't play well enough to elevate the circumstances. You also have to acknowledge man, Houston's front, those dudes caused chaos, and the dudes on the back end were good too. I think the Chargers' perimeter was probably not that great, but man, a lot of man coverage, a lot of winning (by the Texans DBs), a lot of ball hawking. Tough day, at the office for the Chargers."
If this narrative about Herbert — which I think is idiotic — is going to continue past Sunday, it's going to happen not because of Herbert "peeing down his leg" or any other nonsense. It's going to be because the Patriots' defense stopped the run to make the Chargers one-dimensional, the Patriots pressured Herbert at an unreal rate, like he has been all season behind the league's worst offensive line, and the guys in the secondary shut down the Chargers' mediocre weapons. Do that, and most quarterbacks look mortal. It doesn't mean they suck, it means their entire unit was not good enough.
Here's some film of Herbert and the Chargers in their Week 17 20-16 loss to the Texans, where Herbert played his ass off and was, again, let down by the kicker, who missed a 32-yard field goal and an extra point. The guy should get a Football Purple Heart and MVP votes for what he's endured and done this season.
By the way, Herbert was hit 129 times this season, which is the second-most since 2020. Kirk Cousins (2022 Vikings) was hit 131, but he played one more game than Herbert.