Bedard: How the Patriots should attack the Texans' vaunted defense

By now, you might have the feeling that the defenses of the '85 Bears, '00 Ravens, '02 Bucs, '13 Seahawks and '15 Broncos will be paying a visit to Gillette Stadium on Sunday in the form of the Houston Texans.

They're good. They're not that good.

Then again, the Chargers defense was a notch or two below the Texans, and the Patriots only managed 16 points while Drake Maye put the ball in harm's way three times.

But as Aaron Schatz and his DVOA numbers point out, this is by far the best passing defense Maye and the Patriots have faced this season. The Texans are 2nd overall, and 2nd against the pass and the run in DVOA (adjusted for opponent). The Patriots didn't face a passing defense in the top eight (Browns are 9th, Chargers 10th).

The Texans, tossing out the season finale against the Colts when they took their foot off the gass, haven't allowed more than 21 points since Week 10. The Seahawks' 27 points in Seattle in Week 7 are the most they gave up this season. Some other defensive points allowed this season:

Rams: 14
Bucs: 20
Jags1:17
Ravens: 10
Niners: 15
Broncos: 18
Jaguars2: 22
Bills: 12
Colts (Daniel Jones): 16
Chiefs: 10
Chargers: 16

So this will be a pretty big challenge for Maye, Josh McDaniels and everyone involved in the passing game.

But it's certainly not insurmountable.

Here are the areas where the Texans can be taken advantage of (using stats from Weeks 15-17, wild-card):

• Houston is merely good against the run.

While the Texans are 2nd in percentage of plays that go for zero or negative yards (an eye-popping 38%), that drops down to 12th in just the run game. They are also 12th in average rush yards gained over expected. Houston's rush defense success rate is 10th, EPA/rush is 9th, and it is 16th in yards per rush (4.0). The Texans' defense is 9th in inside run EPA, but fifth in outside run EPA. No one runs outside against the Texans (36%, 32nd), everyone tries to run inside against them (64%, 1st).

The Texans are thin at DT, but have good players in Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai. Inside linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair (6-0, 228), and Henry To'oTo'o (6-1, 228) are very aggressive players, but they are small and light — and the Texans are rarely in base defense (25%).

Give the lack of size, but also their speed, I would expect the Patriots to get big with the extra tackle upwards of 20 snaps, and to go through their Rolodex of inside runs to get to the second level: trap, wham, draw, power and counter.

• They give up big plays in the passing game.

The Texans are only 12th in explosive play rate (10.4%), but they are 5th in allowing explosive runs (4.5%). That means most of them are in the pass game, and the numbers back that up, as they are 17th in explosive pass play rate (15.5%). 

The Patriots' offense is first in explosive play rate (17.3%) and second in explosive pass play rate (22.2%).

So this area could determine the game.

Going through the film of completions with 20+ air yards, because we know how Maye likes to air it out, here are some notes on how the Texans were exploited:

- Rams used trips to one side, and a sail concept — plus an absolute dime from Matthew Stafford — to widen the Texans' zone. They targeted CJ Gardner-Johnson, who the Texans wound up releasing.

- Cam Ward made a play on a scramble where safety/nickel Jalen Pitre (5) got caught with his eyes in the backfield. Pitre is a lot like Patrick Chung in that he struggles if you can keep him in space at the normal safety spot in base, but is better the closer he gets to the line of scrimmage and in man coverage.

- Mac Jones threw a hole shot with good anticipation to beat his former teammate, Myles Bryant (25), who shows up a few times at safety and will be targeted when he does. Maye loves those hole shots, and has way more arm strength than Jones.

- The Broncos and WR Cortland Sutton actually beat Derek Stingley Jr. (24) right off the ball (at RCB, not his normal LCB) and he got no safety help because Bo Nix did a great job holding the safety with his eyes. We're going to see this type of play, mostly against Kamari Lassiter (more on that in a minute). This is basically the same play Maye and Kayshon Boutte beat Stingley on last season, but to the other side.

- There's more than a couple of plays where LB To'oTo'o (39) ends up in man coverage against a running back and gets torched (he's not that fast). Expect to see this out of the Patriots, especially with a rub concept the Broncos used. The Patriots call that weekly.

- Out of both edge cornerbacks, Lassiter (4) definitely gets beaten over the top more down the left sideline because he can a) lose focus, and b) gets his eyes in the backfield. Expect the Patriots to go after him with Boutte and Kyle Williams, and likely to give him a little eye candy (underneath routes) to see if wants to stick his nose in there. Calling it now: pump fake and double move to Boutte or Williams.

Here's the video of all of them (WITHOUT COMMENTARY). Bet you feel a little better watching:

• Here are some notes on some of the passing touchdowns the Texans allowed (only 20 in 18 games):

- No. 3 inside receiver quick to the flat. This would be for Hunter Henry or Stefon Diggs.

- High red zone from Colts as they spread them out and hit quickly. The TE was also open. This is Boutte and Henry/Austin Hooper.

- Colts also did boot action to the tight end off outside zone. Patriots have this, but you need the run threat to make it work. Use this if Rhamondre Stevenson is running well, throw back to Hooper.

- On 3rd and goal from the 2, Texans went man and the Cardinals got them with mesh to spring two open tight ends.

- To'oTo'o was burned by Cardinals TE Trey McBride (one of the league's best) on a simple inside move. Not sure Henry has this in his bag, but I'd be willing to try it. To'oTo'o was also burned by two running backs in space on the outside.

- Jump ball over Lassiter.

- On second and goal from the 1, the Chargers used a naked bootleg to get TE Oronde Gadsden wide open. Patriots definitely have this.

- Stingley was beaten in the red zone by Colts' Alec Pierce in man coverage, as he fake the post and went to the corner. I would use this with Kyle Williams.

Here's the video, without commentary:

Again, if you watch these two videos, you'll feel a lot better about Maye and the Patriots' passing game against the Texans — if they can block it up — on Sunday. And, as he has all season, McDaniels will start with how they are going to protect each pass.

"Every play," McDaniels said this week when asked how many times in gameplanning does he start with the question, 'How do we block this?' "

"The reality is, at some point in every play, it becomes 1-on-1 somewhere. We're not going to double team everybody on every play, it's impossible, and we don't need to. You need to pick your spots on when you need to provide some different looks more than anything else. They're going to rush, we're going to have to block them, throw the ball, they're going to have to cover, they're going to blitz, we're going to have to block them. We're going to hand the ball off and try to make some yards in the running game too. ... There's not going to be any shortcuts to this."