By now, you might have the feeling that the defenses of the '85 Bears, '00 Ravens, '02 Bucs, '13 Seahawks and '15 Broncos will be paying a visit to Gillette Stadium on Sunday in the form of the Houston Texans.
They're good. They're not that good.
Then again, the Chargers defense was a notch or two below the Texans, and the Patriots only managed 16 points while Drake Maye put the ball in harm's way three times.
But as Aaron Schatz and his DVOA numbers point out, this is by far the best passing defense Maye and the Patriots have faced this season. The Texans are 2nd overall, and 2nd against the pass and the run in DVOA (adjusted for opponent). The Patriots didn't face a passing defense in the top eight (Browns are 9th, Chargers 10th).
The Texans, tossing out the season finale against the Colts when they took their foot off the gass, haven't allowed more than 21 points since Week 10. The Seahawks' 27 points in Seattle in Week 7 are the most they gave up this season. Some other defensive points allowed this season:
Rams: 14
Bucs: 20
Jags1:17
Ravens: 10
Niners: 15
Broncos: 18
Jaguars2: 22
Bills: 12
Colts (Daniel Jones): 16
Chiefs: 10
Chargers: 16
So this will be a pretty big challenge for Maye, Josh McDaniels and everyone involved in the passing game.
But it's certainly not insurmountable.
Here are the areas where the Texans can be taken advantage of (using stats from Weeks 15-17, wild-card):
• Houston is merely good against the run.
While the Texans are 2nd in percentage of plays that go for zero or negative yards (an eye-popping 38%), that drops down to 12th in just the run game. They are also 12th in average rush yards gained over expected. Houston's rush defense success rate is 10th, EPA/rush is 9th, and it is 16th in yards per rush (4.0). The Texans' defense is 9th in inside run EPA, but fifth in outside run EPA. No one runs outside against the Texans (36%, 32nd), everyone tries to run inside against them (64%, 1st).
The Texans are thin at DT, but have good players in Sheldon Rankins and Tommy Togiai. Inside linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair (6-0, 228), and Henry To'oTo'o (6-1, 228) are very aggressive players, but they are small and light — and the Texans are rarely in base defense (25%).
Give the lack of size, but also their speed, I would expect the Patriots to get big with the extra tackle upwards of 20 snaps, and to go through their Rolodex of inside runs to get to the second level: trap, wham, draw, power and counter.
• They give up big plays in the passing game.
The Texans are only 12th in explosive play rate (10.4%), but they are 5th in allowing explosive runs (4.5%). That means most of them are in the pass game, and the numbers back that up, as they are 17th in explosive pass play rate (15.5%).
The Patriots' offense is first in explosive play rate (17.3%) and second in explosive pass play rate (22.2%).
So this area could determine the game.
Going through the film of completions with 20+ air yards, because we know how Maye likes to air it out, here are some notes on how the Texans were exploited: