Apologize for the delay on this. Have been without internet or TV since the storm so I'm behind on everything and couldn't provide film analysis this week. Thanks for your patience.
____________________
Bailey Zappe was simply outstanding in the first half against the Chiefs.
As we discussed going into the contest, the Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was a great measuring stick game for Zappe. Putting together a full and effective performance against that group would open many career opportunities for the former fourth-round pick. Spagnuolo is one of the best in the league at tripping up quarterbacks with his different pressure and coverage concepts.
In the first half, Zappe made it look easy. He was in total control. We had him for 8 plus plays — including the sensational play to elude pressure and throw a TD pass to Hunter Henry, which was wiped out by a holding penalty — and just two minus (a missed third-down toss to Demario Douglas, and a half-sack we put on the QB when he could have at least thrown the ball away). At that point, my personal rating for Zappe of 26.1% would have been the best for a Patriots QB in the past three seasons. And that he did it against 43.4% pressure only enhanced the performance.
Of course, the second half was a different story. My rating for him in the second half -39.3%, which would have been the worst in the past three years if it was over a full game (-31.8, Mac Jones vs. Giants this year).
This was not just a one-off, as the same issue came up last week against the Steelers when the Patriots barely hung on after being shut out for the final two-and-a-half quarters.
The two-face nature of Zappe's game was also a problem last season as well as evidenced by the Bears game where he tossed two touchdown passes in relief of Jones before halftime, and then had an awful second half to the point he wasn't a factor again that season.
Zappe understands the situation.
"Yeah, for me personally, I think it's important for me to put a full game together," he said. "First halves been great. Second halves haven’t been so good. So, I think if I'm able to go out there and execute and run the offense the way it's supposed to be run for two halves, I think we’ll score a lot more points. So that directly reflects on me doing my job well and then that relates to everybody else. So, I think that's for me, that's what I want to do."
It's hard to ascertain on film exactly why Zappe has dropped off in the second, especially against the Chiefs (outside of Zappe getting some of Jones' season-long medicine with an obscene 64% pressure rate where no one can operate).
But we reached out to a KC source who knows the thinking of the coaching staff to get their perspective on Zappe. Their four key adjustments in the second half.
1. Pressured a little more on third down.
Zappe was fairly comfortable in the first half despite being blitzed eight times. The blitz rate was lower in the second half but they came much heavier with three all-out blitzes and they started to mix in the corner blitzes, which caught Zappe and the Patriots twice.
2. Adjusted coverage a bit to account for what the Chiefs felt like an effort by the Patriots to feed Hunter Henry.
Henry has become a favorite target of Zappe's, so it was surprising the Chiefs didn't pay him extra attention to start the game. They paid the price as Henry was 6 for 6 on targets for 57 yards and a touchdown (the TD taken away by penalty is not in those stats).
Henry was lost for the game early in the fourth quarter on an iffy pass by Zappe when he had better options, but Henry was 0 for 1 in the third quarter.
3. Tried to disguise calls better as Chiefs felt Zappe did a good job in the first half checking to gun to pass.
Zappe and Bill O'Brien were on their game as they were prepared for a lot of what Spagnuolo tried to do. Probably the biggest reason why Zappe has gone from being cut to a halfway effective starter is because he's much better at making checks at the line, and he did a nice job at that in the first half. In the second half, Spagnuolo had the upper hand on Zappe and O'Brien. A few times, Zappe checked into plays where the Chiefs had the advantage. That's typical of a young QB in this system (this is Zappe's first year in the traditional Patriots offense - he's basically a rookie).
4. Played stickier coverage.
This has been a constant theme the past two weeks in the second halves against the Steelers and Chiefs. The opponents seem to underestimate Zappe in the first half. In the second half, they finally seem to realize that the Patriots aren't a threat to run by them, so they get more aggressive in coverages, forcing Zappe to be even more accurate.
Also working against Zappe: his splits leading and trailing, especially with passer rating and sacks taken, are almost identical to his first/second half splits. Basically, when things are on schedule and pressure isn't an issue, Zappe is really good. The muddier it gets, the tougher time Zappe and the Patriots have throwing the ball.
Here are the positional ratings against the Chiefs:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2 out of 5)
Half-good. In the first half, we had Zappe for eight plus throws, including one against pressure. ... In the second half, he should have thrown the interception out of bounds — even if Pharoah Brown ran an out, it was going to be a tough completion. Zappe made a poor read trying to throw an X-iso slant to Jalen Reagor when the Patriots had good numbers on a quick game to Douglas on the other side. Zappe also fumbled when he saw the pressure on a sack, overthrew a wide-open Douglas for a dropped interception as Zappe was drilled, and Douglas was also open (and frustrated after the play) when Henry was injured.
Running backs (2 out of 5)
Kevin Harris looked really good on the touchdown when there wasn't much there (great run blocks from David Andrews and Sidy Sow). ... Don't tell anyone, but Ezekiel Elliott has been more of a liability in pass protection in recent weeks (four QB pressures vs. KC) than not. He should have seen the cornerback blitz coming on the 3rd and 12 sack in the third quarter. It wasn't an easy read, but a good veteran back does better there.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Henry was a beast in the first half, despite getting held a lot down the field. His route on 3rd and 12 was outstanding, his touchdown was a better catch than throw because it was a little behind him, and he made a great sliding catch on the TD that was taken away. ... DeVante Parker has some good moments (20-yard catch, 19-yard catch on third down). But, in our opinion, he should have been hot for Zappe on that 3rd and 12 corner blitz (it was the guy right in front of him, and there was a ton of room for him to just convert the route to a slant). Zappe seemed to be waiting for him.
Offensive line (1 out of 5)
Outside of Andrews (and Vederian Lowe in his short stint), this was basically a trainwreck. Atonio Mafi and Sidy Sow were completely overmatched in the second half against Chris Jones, the best DT in the league. Conor McDermott and Cole Strange weren't good before their injuries. Mike Onwenu was just ok. As has been the case this entire season no matter the QB, the passing game has no chance when they give up this much sustained pressure. ... The Chiefs stacked the box and the run blocking wasn't much better.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
DeMarcus Covington should be the assistant coach of the year. His group up front just keeps getting better and better. The only "errors" we had in this group were Davon Godchaux and Jahlani Tavai getting moved to combine on the one big 20-yard run, and Deatrich Wise getting blown out by a double team. ... Not really much to say about Christian Barmore other than dominating. His pad level has been terrific, especially against the run where he's made his biggest leap this season (three stuffed runs). ... Mack Wilson looks like a completely different player the second half of this season. It's take a while, but it seems like he finally understands the scheme and just goes hunting for plays. .... Anfernee Jennings is making some money for himself with his play since Matthew Judon was injured. ... His production might not be huge, but Josh Uche continues to be highly efficient. He'll also get paid.
Linebackers (2.5 out of 5)
Marte Mapu was a typical rookie - took advantage of the TE not coming back to the ball for the interception, but then he was easily rubbed for a touchdown. ... Ja'Whaun Bentley was completely lost on the 48-yard screen pass, which appeared to be his man. ... Tavai is sort of emblematic of this defense for a few years: really good against limited offenses/good rushing teams, completely exposed against fast teams that scheme up a lot of space. The INT was a gift from Kadarius Toney (and Barmore), but largely Tavai was in this one giving up the CEH touchdown and another 17-yard pass, a big run and that dumb-ass fumble after his INT.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
Dugger was bad in this one. It was either another example of him struggling to play in space against teams where he can't just sit in the box, or he's starting to make some business decisions so close to free agency. I'm leaning towards the former. He's like Patrick Chung: if he has to play deep safety in space against a good offense, he's just going to struggle and look totally lost at times. That happened multiple times in this game. ... I get that, possibly, the JC Jackson situation came out of nowhere (but I have my doubts, his emotional issues have been ongoing), but how do you go into a game against the Chiefs with just four active cornerbacks (Shaun Wade was inactive)? Alex Austin was as you would expect having to play every snap. ... Jabrill Peppers should have been better on the rushing TD where the Chiefs had Joe Thuney snap the ball. Peppers had no clue what was going on, along with half the defense. That was embarrassing for the unit and coaches. Bet the Patriots steal that play, which all teams do.
FIVE UP
Hunter Henry: I'm sure he wishes that Zappe was the QB since the start of the season ... except for that last pass, which put Henry in a bad spot.
Christian Barmore: Nine impactful plays. Every week now.
Mack Wilson: Speed is real on the field.
Anfernee Jennings: This might be a little hyperbole, but as far as straight-up, setting-the-edge Patriots players, he's up there with any in recent times.
David Andrews: It's been a mess around him all season, but he's played damn good. Never gets the respect he should, even in his own building.
FIVE DOWN
Sidy Sow: This was a heavyweight (Jones) vs. middleweight mismatch. Not fair.
Atonio Mafi: He looked awful on some reps. Has some skills, but he was overdrafted. Too much of a project for the fifth round. Sixth or seventh.
Conor McDermott: This isn't his fault. It's the GM's fault.
Kyle Dugger: Looked lost on some snaps and, at times, he has some of worst zone drops/awareness that I've seen from a Patriots safety.
Alex Austin: Should have been Shaun Wade in that spot.