Nobody knows for sure what's going to happen in New England after this season, mercifully, comes to an end.
Basically, anything from keeping the status quo to doing a complete reset of the football operations could and should be on the table.
That means most Patriots players could be playing for jobs elsewhere after this season. That would include the quarterback position. Regardless of how much change comes to New England, the odds are strong that the Patriots will be making big changes at the quarterback position, especially if they hold the second overall pick in the draft.
That means, for someone like Bailey Zappe, these final four games could mean more to him than most. He has a chance to put substantial film out there down the stretch, especially when it comes to Sunday's game against the Chiefs. Steve Spagnuolo's unit is third in points allowed, ranks 9th in total DVOA — 30th against the run but 5th against the pass.
"Yeah, they present a lot of challenges," said Bill O'Brien. "Spags does a great job, they have really good scheme. It's a very versatile scheme. It's different personnel groupings. They, they do a lot of different things schematically out of those personnel groupings, and they have really good players at all three levels.
"Obviously, on the defensive line with Chris Jones — awesome, awesome player. Getting (LB Nick) Bolton back really helps them. I'm very familiar with Justin Reid, we drafted him in Houston, and then there's a lot of other players too. I just think they're smart. They do a lot of different things. And they present a lot of challenges. So we have to have a really good week of practice and really good week of preparation, and then we have to be ready to adjust during the game for what, what the game will be."
Zappe, after getting shutout and not penetrating the 28-yard line against the woeful Chargers, had a very productive first half (14 of 21, 196 yards, 3 TDs) in the 21-18 win over the Steelers. He was 5 for 7 and 44 yards after going up 21-3. The quarterback knows the defending Super Bowl champions will be a big challenge, especially since they are in the top 10 for blitz rate — and they use the whole package, especially corner (CAT) blitzes.
"They do a lot of things," Zappe said. "I think a lot of it just comes down to the communication between me and David Andrews and the offensive line, trying to get all on the same page. As long as we're on the same page, everything will hopefully go well. You're just trying to believe in the offensive line that they're going to pick up the pressures, whatever they bring, and just being able to stand back there confidently and just take care of the football and throw the open guys and let them make plays."
To get a sense of what's at stake for Zappe in this game, and to get a different perspective of his night against the Steelers, we talked to an AFC playcaller who is very familiar with the Chiefs' defense.
"I thought they did a good job of trying to be aggressive, early in the game, that was apparent to me," said the playcaller. "And I thought there were a couple of really significant plays, the Juju (Smith-Schuster) catch was obviously significant. The scramble for the first down was a good was a big play. The Pittsburgh defense, especially some of the personnel they have right now and with TJ Watt and (Alex) Highsmith getting concussed, they're just not that good. The first touchdown to Zeke was just a solid football play and Pittsburgh just wasn't covering very tightly. It was Zappe was just doing what any quarterback should be doing that Mac struggled with doing this year? I was really impressed with the tackles (in that game).
"I'm still in the camp of the jury's still out on whether Zappe can be a good backup. Because he went in and he made some throws. Anybody can do that. I thought the third touchdown pass (second one to Hunter Henry), he was lucky. The safety completely (bleeped) up that play. The second touchdown was a good throw, that was a pro throw. I was impressed with him (at 21-3). After that, Pittsburgh said, 'We can't do this. We have to get on him.' And as the game went on, he held the ball a little longer. took some sacks, couldn't convert, couldn't drive the ball. You know what I mean?"
That's why this game against the Chiefs is so significant for Zappe. The rest of the league will be watching, if not now — in the offseason when it's time to evaluate him.
"Watch on Sunday, you best believe that's what it's gonna be," the playcaller said of the Chiefs' pressure and man coverage. "Between getting on him and playing playing coverage and holding — Kansas City holds more than any team in the league and/or blitzing and sending a bunch of different combinations at him, that's when the game's gonna be.
"Now, if he plays well, and like, actually handles this shit, it'd be something to talk about. But I thought Pittsburgh's back seven, I wasn't all that impressed at all. They shit the bed in the first half. And then the second half, they played competitively. He just didn't do anything.
"But this week, I'd be shocked if they score more than their average. I really will be. Because Kansas City can be a (bleeping) pain in the ass. Spagsis gonna dial up some bullshit. Sometimes it's not sound. But if you don't have a guy playing quarterback that can figure out where it's not sound at, you're gonna lose anyway."
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. NFL Network reported the Krafts have not yet decided on Bill Belichick's future.
While the expectation is that a decision on his future will play out over the next month, sources also say it could take longer than that.
As the Patriots are set to play the Chiefs on Sunday, they'll do so on a one-game winning streak during a season in which wins have been few. If they make it two in a row, that could change things.
Sources say not only has owner Robert Kraft not come to a firm conclusion on what will happen next with his head-coaching situation, but the way New England finishes could go a long way in determining what's next.
Did anyone expect NFL Network to report, 'Yup, the Krafts are done with Belichick," with four games to play?
2. Depending on where Belichick lands and what the QB situation is, several league sources think Belichick could reunite with Josh McDaniels. But it's far from sure McDaniels, who has some like $60 million left on his Raiders deal, would jump at the chance - or any offer, really. McDaniels is expected to have multiple OC offers, and he might not like any of them. That being said, hooking up with Belichick could be McDaniels' best (last?) chance to perhaps be a head coach again.
Yeah, I can hear you snickering. But hear me out...
Let's say Belichick goes to the Chargers. If McDaniels makes Justin Herbert (or any another QB in another spot) a superstar and Super Bowl winner, and Belichick finally retires after winning another title and passing Don Shula on the all-time win list, why wouldn't the Spanos family (or any owner) continue on with the coach who lifted the QB and team to great heights? What are they going to do, promote Steve Belichick to HC?
I mean, it's not out of the realm of possibility if you think about it.
3. John Harbaugh on Malik Cunningham, who he said is "no doubt" a QB.
"He had a chance to come over here and be a part of our team. We're very excited about that. I feel like he has a great future in the league," he said Wednesday. "It's going to be really interesting to see how [Malik Cunningham] develops. He's a quarterback, there's no doubt about that. He's here to play quarterback and develop as a quarterback, and that was kind of the future move down the road. That's an opportunity. I think when you're a general manager, you have to look for all those opportunities, and Eric [DeCosta] is the best. He does that, and that's part of it, but in the meantime, [Malik] is talented enough and willing enough to help any way he can, so that's kind of how you see it."
4. Late roster moves for both teams:
- Patriots elevate RB Kevin Harris to the active roster
- Chiefs: Ruled WR Justyn Ross OUT; Signed Practice Squad player S Deon Bush to active roster; activated Practice Squad players NT Mike Pennel and RB Deneric Prince. Waived LB Darius Harris.
5. Bedard's Pick
Fanduel Odds: Chiefs -8.5, o/u 37
Bedard's 2023 record: 6-7 overall, 7-6 vs. spread.
These are things I think I think:
- As I said before the season, the Chiefs' offense was going to take a step back this year with all the new (bad) weapons and Travis Kelce was bound to get hurt and not play at the same level. That has held.
- The Chiefs don't have Isaiah Pacheco again and can't run the ball without him.
- Belichick will not let Kelce beat him.
- Patriots will do a solid job keeping Patrick Mahomes in the pocket.
- The Patriots defense will keep the Chiefs around 20.
- Unless the Patriots just run over the Chiefs with Elliott or get a lot of turnovers, they are going to have a tough time scoring points against a tough Chiefs defense.
- But I think Zappe will take care of the ball.
Chiefs 23, Patriots 13