The Celtics are hoping this summer can bring the moves, staff hires, and internal improvement to get them the next couple of steps forward needed to win a title. This series looks at questions that need to be answered for that to happen.
Question 1: What will the new CBA do to this roster?
Question 3: How does Joe Mazzulla grow as head coach?
Question 4: How many Celtics theoreticals become reality?
Question 7: Is Boston’s bench good enough?
There is one nearly indisputable truth in the NBA: You need a true MVP candidate on your roster to win a championship.
You can argue that the 2008 Celtics were the last team to win it all without one, but Kevin Garnett was a force of nature and he was still third in the voting. The 2004 Detroit Pistons are truly the only modern NBA team to win without a legitimate MVP candidate.
It’s nearly impossible to do, because MVPs can do the nearly impossible. And part of the reason the Celtics have fallen short the past two seasons is that they haven't had a player on their team who can will them to wins on a regular basis.
Jayson Tatum has been very good, and his name has been thrown around in the MVP discussion for a couple of seasons. But getting mentioned in the voting and being a real threat to win it are two completely different things. And the bottom line for Boston is that they might never win a title without him taking that leap.
I’m not saying they won’t if he doesn’t, but it’s going to take more of that team effort to get the job done, and it’s going to take a coaching style that recognizes that and puts the focus more on the team rather than the individual.
The problem is that both Ime Udoka and Joe Mazzulla put the ball in Tatum’s hands and told him to do what an MVP does. And while Tatum has sporadically performed well in those spots, coming through with some amazing performances when Boston was facing elimination. What he hasn’t been able to do is lift the team through an entire playoff run.
It hasn’t always been his fault.
The offensive plan has been to put the ball in Tatum’s hands, having him draw two defenders, and then kick it to a teammate for a quick four-on-three. The goal is to have that four-on-three advantage pay off in big enough ways that opponents have to back off trapping Tatum and he can then cook one v. one. The four haven't always been as good as they should in that situation, so the strategy was never punished enough for Tatum to really find a groove.
The supporting cast and the coaching haven’t done him a lot of favors over the past couple of seasons. At the same time, Boston hasn’t really been built to be “Jayson Tatum and everybody else.” Jaylen Brown is pretty damn good, Derrick White is coming off a career season, and guys like Al Horford have had major roles in the past even though they're more supporting right now. The Celtics have to find the happy medium between a Tatum-centric attack and making sure the whole team is being used the right way.
But Tatum will always be the number one threat on the Celtics. As good as Brown is, Tatum is just a bit better in most facets of the game. That's not a knock on Brown at all, either. It’s just that Tatum has that MVP potential in him, and I don’t think Brown will ever be more than an “also getting votes” guy in that race.
None of that matters, though, if Tatum reaches another level. I’ve laid out the steps he needs to take multiple times on this site. He needs to play through people, going up on drives off two feet, taking the contact, and finishing strong to draw the fouls. He needs to be more judicious with some of his shooting. And he needs to start figuring out how to manipulate defenses into doing what he wants them to do, rather than him just taking what’s given to him.
The last part is maybe the most important, because Tatum is so good at so many things that he will read how the defender is playing him and shoot or drive based on what he sees. However, he needs to get the defender to do what he wants more often. He needs to be the chess master and make the opposition the pieces he moves around the board. It’s not just taking what the defense gives him, it’s making the defense give him what he wants.
I discussed a lot of this in more detail in a recent Locked On Celtics podcast.
Tatum is very good, but Boston won’t get the championship they're looking for without Tatum jumping from fifth place votes to first and second place votes. He has grown so much as a player, both physically and mentally. But there is more room between him and his ceiling. It’s very clear the Celtics have built their playoff offense around Tatum carrying most of the load. If he can keep growing, Boston can clear some of the final hurdles that have tripped them up in the past.