The Celtics are hoping this summer can bring the moves, staff hires, and internal improvement to get them the next couple of steps forward needed to win a title. This series looks at questions that need to be answered for that to happen.
Question 1: What will the new CBA do to this roster?
Question 3: How does Joe Mazzulla grow as head coach?
Question 4: How many Celtics theoreticals become reality?
The Celtics were billed as a deep team last season, even though I’m not sure their depth was fully realized. Injuries and scheme kept the full-strength Celtics from showing their maximum potential.
But instead of being able to run it back with some better health and a little retooling, the Celtics were forced to remake more of their roster than they might have under the old collective bargaining agreement.
Instead of just swallowing a higher tax bill, Boston suddenly has to consider significant team-building restrictions as their payroll grows. Even if we assume it wouldn’t have saved Marcus Smart from being moved in the Kristaps Porzingis deal, we can bet that Grant Williams would have stuck around instead of being moved for nothing.
Beyond that, under the old rules, Boston would have had use of the taxpayer midlevel exception to add someone of more significance. Not only that, it would have been worth about $7 million instead of $5 million.
So instead of Grant Williams and Player X making $7 million, Boston has neither coming off the bench this upcoming season. That's a big hit for them, but is their bench still good enough to support the starters moving forward?
We can assume the starters are Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis. Let’s pencil in Robert Williams as the fifth starter for now.
That would push Al Horford to the bench, along with Malcolm Brogdon, Sam Hauser, Oshae Brissett, Payton Pritchard, Luke Kornet, Dalano Banton, and (technically) Jordan Walsh. JD Davison and Jay Scrubb are on two-way deals and might be options from time to time.
In reality, we’re looking at a nine- or 10-man rotation at best, so once we get to Kornet in that rundown, everyone is on an “as-needed” basis. Walsh is almost certainly going to spend the whole season in Maine with some occasional call-ups to fill out a bench depleted by injuries.
Horford, Brogdon, Hauser, Brissett, and Pritchard will likely be Boston’s main bench guys. We’ve seen Brogdon have an award-winning season off the bench, but there are some questions as to whether he can duplicate that given the circumstances of being traded and then un-traded this past summer. The answer to this question of whether the bench is good enough likely hinges most on Brogdon and his ability to anchor the second unit. If he’s not at his absolute best, whether mentally or physically, then the rest of the bench could suffer greatly.
Brogdon’s health is fairly in question here. By all accounts, he’s progressing well this offseason and he won’t need surgery. If he comes back at 100% with no lingering effects, then he’ll have at least cleared that hurdle.
However, a late decision to have surgery isn’t out of the question. I’ve seen pissed off players make that decision, most notably Scottie Pippen in 1997, so there's at least a small part of me that wonders if Brogdon will mess with the team in that way. I doubt it, but I’m not ruling it out.
Horford presumably going to the bench would be an interesting move. He has started all but 10 of his 1,013 regular season games, and 165 out of 167 playoff games. It would very clearly be a departure from the norm for him, but at 37 years old, Horford is due for a change in his role.
He’s already changed his shot profile, taking more 3-pointers than 2-pointers for the first time in his life this past season. He took almost exactly half as many 2-pointers last season compared to the prior year (154 vs. 304), while taking 60 more 3-pointers (325 vs 265).
Horford could play the role of floor-spacing behind Porzingis, with Kornet stepping into Horford’s shoes on the back end of back-to-backs. His reduced role could be increased as the season goes on and they ramp him up for the playoffs, but it’s fair to wonder if keeping him down in the 20-something minute range would help him keep his production up. He dropped from a 44.6% 3-point shooter in the regular season last year to a 29.8% shooter in the playoffs.
Hauser is now an incredibly important part of this offense. Joe Mazzulla will have to rely on him to be more consistent as a shooter while remaining passable as a defender. Hauser won’t have the luxury of a two-month swoon like he had when he went 26-88 (29.5%) from deep in December and January. Yes, 3-point shooting is inherently inconsistent, but Hauser needs to minimize the cold stretches and keep them shorter than that.
On top of that, Hauser needs to pick up where he left off defensively. He finished last season as a fairly capable defender, but he will eventually need to get to a place where even playoff schemes can’t exploit him on a regular basis. It would be to Boston’s great advantage if Hauser can be a part of the playoff rotation.
Pritchard will get the opportunity he’s been hoping for, but his size will remain a hindrance no matter what. He is going to bring energy, shooting, and effort, but the question with Pritchard is whether he can reach any kind of defensive level to nullify the size advantage teams have. Will Mazzulla and the Celtics start to get creative with their defenses and try some zone, at least when Pritchard is in the game, in order to eliminate their opponents’ offensive advantage?
And then there's Brissett, who hasn’t been much of a shooter, but who can finish around the rim and help the team defensively. Maybe the change of scenery and opportunity can help a few more shots fall.
The bench’s role is to support the starting five and be good enough to allow the stars to rest. Ideally, I’d like to see Tatum and Brown play fewer minutes in the regular season so they can be fresher for the playoffs. The bench Boston has assembled has some valid questions that can swing the Celtics from being seen as a very deep team to one that is searching for answers at the trade deadline.