The Celtics are hoping this summer can bring the moves, staff hires, and internal improvement to get them the next couple of steps forward needed to win a title. This series looks at questions that need to be answered for that to happen.
Question 1: What will the new CBA do to this roster?
Question 2: How will the Kristaps Porzingis trade impact the Celtics?
Question 3: How does Joe Mazzulla grow as head coach?
The Celtics have been so close.
They had a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals and a five-point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 4, at home. But they collapsed and gave up a 21-6 run over the final 6:30 of the game, and they never won another game in the series.
They had come back from down 3-0 to set up a Game 7 at home in the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami, but Jayson Tatum’s sprained ankle left him too hobbled, and Jaylen Brown had one of his worst games as a Celtic, and the Heat ran away with it.
Boston’s recent history is littered with gigantic “ifs.” If they were able to score down the stretch of Game 4 against Golden State, they probably would win it all. If Tatum was his normal self against Miami, they might have been able to close out the comeback and face a Denver Nuggets team against which they matched up pretty well.
When a team is that close, there is a strong tendency to tinker. If the problem is getting that final yard to cross the goal line, then it might make sense to just try to find a better run blocker or maybe a fullback to bring in for that specific situation.
Brad Stevens instead chose to make a bigger move. It’s not an overhaul, but it’s also a major decision where most people expected something smaller. And not only is it a decision to bring in another big name, but it’s also a big name that changes the dynamic of the team and fundamentally shifts how the team will play.
Now, the Celtics are more theoretical than they’ve been in a long time. There's a lot that could look good on paper, but so much about the team that we just don’t know and can’t predict because things will be so different.
Theory: Kristaps Porzingis will build off what was the best season of his career, giving Boston varied options on offense and a rim protector on defense.
He was mediocre in the post for most of his career. He was ineffective enough that Boston guarded him with Marcus Smart for years and it worked. It didn’t last season because Porzingis suddenly became elite at punishing mismatches. Was that progression or contractual motivation?
He shot 38.5% on 3-pointers, the best of his post-ACL injury career and second-best mark in the NBA. His 55.9% efg made this the most efficient shooting season of his career because he finally put his 2-point and 3-point shooting together. If he can keep that up, then Boston’s offense will be deadly. If he regresses at all and shoots 34.5% like he did in Dallas, then the Celtics will have a problem.
Theory: Derrick White will build off his amazing season and thrive as the primary ball handler
White is almost the guard version of Porzingis in that he’s coming off an incredible shooting season. His 56% efg was his best ever, and 3.6% better than his career average.
According to Cleaning The Glass, White spent just 21% of his time on the floor last season as the team’s point guard. But in those minutes, he shot a little bit better than he did as the team’s shooting guard (58.1% efg vs. 57.5% efg). So theoretically, more time at the point will work out very well for him.
There's not much history to lean on. He was San Antonio’s full-time point guard four seasons ago and his offense was pretty good, but he also has some really bad shooting numbers as the point guard there in subsequent seasons. There's no way to know how he’ll handle things until he actually starts handling things.
Theory: Joe Mazzulla, with a year under his belt and a hand-picked staff with championship experience, will be a much better coach.
I covered a lot of this on Tuesday.
The coaching aspect will be evident in the overall gameplan and identity of the team. They will likely have to rely on more traditional defenses like drop coverage while leaning more into the 3-point-heavy offense.
But within that there's room to get creative with Porzingis operating in the post and playing off that threat. Defensively, the Celtics have a lot of size that could be put to great use in a zone.
There's nothing wrong with going more traditional with things. The real work will be in the wrinkles and the other looks Boston gives teams during games. They can still switch, but more one-through-three with the bigs staying home to back them up. Or maybe there are some fully switchable lineups that can be deployed as a curveball,
This is where the Mazzulla will truly be tested, and where his staff will come in handy. Sam Cassell knows how Kawhi Leonard and Paul George were used in Los Angeles. Charles Lee knows Milwaukee’s drop coverage with Brook Lopez inside and out. Both have insight into how some of what Boston will want to do worked in other places. They know the shortfalls, the work-arounds, and the potential tweaks to make them better.
This is a smart group of coaches, and they come into the season on the same page. Theoretically, that should work out great. But it’s up to Mazzulla to take full advantage of their expertise and be egoless when better ideas come up.
The Celtics, theoretically, will be a very good team. They have tremendous talent across the board, and a lot of the projection systems will probably love the removal of Smart and the addition of Porzingis.
But the algorithms and projections are one thing. Best-case scenarios rarely become reality, and the numbers can be misleading. How far Boston goes this season depends on the theoretical becoming reality. The stuff on paper needs to spring to life, or else this season will finish just like the others: too soon, and in a disappointing way.