FOXBOROUGH — The Patriots start playing for keeps this morning, as they kick off 2023 training camp.
Well, sort of.
Under the current CBA, each NFL team has to undergo a five-day acclimation process. Day 1, which was Tuesday, is just physicals and any on-field work can't involve footballs. Days 2-3, which begin today, are only in helmets and t-shirts but can be at full speed. Days 4-5, Friday and Sunday, can introduce shells. Saturday is the mandatory off day this year (it was Sunday last year), and then teams can begin padded practices.
In other words, don't read too much into this first week. The real competition starts on Monday.
With that in mind, here are the top competitions heading into camp, a prediction on who will win and why, and our bold predictions for the entirety of camp.
Here's last year's version ... some hits (Jack Jones, Malcolm Butler being cut, saying to cut Isaiah Wynn) and misses (Jahlani Tavai, Yodny Cajuste) but interesting to read.
FIFTH RECEIVER
Contenders: Tre Nixon, Jalen Hurd, Malik Cunningham (R), Kayshon Boutte (R), Demario Douglas (R), Ed Lee (R).
Favorites: Douglas.
Dark horses: Cunningham, Lee.
Heat is on: Boutte
Skinny: The Patriots are pretty entrenched with their middling top four — Juju Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton and Kendrick Bourne. It's not out of the realm of possibility that they could trade Bourne at some point if a couple of guys flash. Hurd has experience but just got here and will be fighting an uphill battle as the 89th guy on the roster. Nixon tries hard but lacks pop. Boutte and Douglas are draft picks but Boutte is a longshot to stay on the straight and narrow as a pro. Douglas could definitely stick and can return kicks. Cunningham is intriguing with upside, and will serve as good scout team prep for Jalen Hurts. Lee has a chance, for sure, as a UDFA.
Who wins the jobs?
Douglas.
The kid is quick as a hiccup, and the Patriots need more of those guys. Have liked what I've seen so far.
THIRD-DOWN BACK
Contenders: Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong, JJ Taylor, Marcus Jones.
Favorites: Montgomery, Strong.
Dark horse: Jones.
Heat is on: JJ Taylor.
Skinny: Montgomery definitely feels like the guy, but he never stays healthy. Strong will get a long look as a second-year back with speed. Taylor has been here forever and can't seem to gain any traction - you wonder why he's here. And I'm not giving up on my Marcus Jones offensive dude dream until it's really dead.
Who wins the jobs?
Strong.
Montgomery will flash, maybe even for some of the season, but Strong will win the role and show real potential to break a play or two. But don't forget about Jones!
RIGHT TACKLE
Contenders: Riley Reiff, Calvin Anderson, Conor McDermott, Andrew Stueber, Sidy Sow (R).
Favorite: Reiff.
Dark horse: Sow.
Heat is on: Stueber.
Skinny: If Trent Brown is ready to go, that frees up both Reiff and Anderson to play more RT after spending much of the spring at LT covering for Brown's absence. Stueber was barely healthy last year and has much to prove. Sow got some chances in the spring but wasn't overly impressive. That might change when the pads go on.
Who wins the jobs?
Reiff
He's is making too much money for them just to cut him loose, one would think.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS
1. Bill O'Brien and Mac Jones get into a shouting match at some point.
If you think Jones can be an acting-out brat at times, then wait until you see O'Brien if the offense stinks for a couple of days in a row. He'll go Full Teapot on you. Can just see BOB and Mac jawing at each other at some point.
2. Tyquan Thornton misses time again.
Has a ton of potential and speed but, man, are those legs skinny and tight. Hoping he enrolled in a yoga class in the offseason — and some weight training — because if you combine his hammys and his slight build, Thornton is a big injury risk.
3. Top two picks struggle.
I said this last year (and I was right), so I'm doing it again. Christian Gonzalez will flash but we'll wonder if he's really No. 1 CB ready as a rookie (he could be a year from now), and there will be some chatter about why the Patriots used a second-round pick on Keion White, who could only be a backup and occasional sub rusher.
4. Cole Strange shows rapid improvement.
Definitely had some good moments as a rookie, but for the most part, he struggled for any consistency, especially against big tackles. Well, he's bulked up a little bit more and the improved coaching will really help Strange settle down. I'm looking for some good 1-on-1 stats this year!
5. Kendrick Bourne gets traded.
Do I want this? Heck no. Do I think the Patriots have a lot better options? Nope. But the way he has talked to the media, the times he has landed in the doghouse, the fact that he needs a certain type of coaching (but has the same coaches again), leads me to believe that Belichick would love an opening to ship Bourne off. And that would be a mistake. Another one.
