Truth be told, not a ton has changed since my initial 53-man roster projection after the draft (May 7). Despite seeing five practices, there are way too many questions about some players and some new ones: Lawrence Guy's contract, Trent Brown's desire, Jack Jones' off-field issues, and lingering injuries for Juju Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton.
Some moves we projected have already come to fruition, namely the releases of RB James Robinson, WR Lynn Bowden and OT Yodny Cajuste.
And I really haven't changed much on my last six out from before:
RB James Robinson (already gone)
TE Johnny Lumpkin
WR Kayshon Boutte
DE Ronnie Perkins
CB Shaun Wade
S Joshuah Bledsoe
If I had to make a change, it would probably be Mack Wilson instead of Lumpkin, who didn't register at all in the offseason practices.
And the questions about linebacker and how safety factors in ... that's probably the biggest discussion point about the roster when it comes nailing down the final numbers (and not really considering yet those veteran practice squad players who serve as a shadow roster up to 56 players).
Before we get to the new 53-man roster projection, let's give you the players that have risen and fallen in our eyes after the spring practices:
ON THE RISE
TE Anthony Firkser: Have always liked his all-around game and the Patriots needed a better third option than Matt Sokol, who is serviceable and that's about it. Firkser is a legit third tight end and he's made the transition quickly, so I had to create a spot for him. We only had two TEs on the first installment.
OG Bill Murray: The way the team used him regularly in place of the injured Mike Onwenu shows they think a lot of him. But do they have a spot after drafting three-ish interior linemen (another reason not to draft three interior linemen and maybe throw in a real tackle with upside)?
LB/S Marte Mapu: I feel confident saying that no defensive rookie has been asked to tackle this much this soon, and he flourished at all of it. Definitely changes the calculations.
C/G Jake Andrews: Along with fellow rookie Atonio Mafi, the combo player received some nice looks in practices.
S Jabrill Peppers: Bill Belichick almost salivated when asked about him, and he looks dynamite on the field.
S Joshuah Bledsoe: Received a ton of good playing time, but is there enough room with all the different options between safeties, cornerbacks and Marte Mapu?
CB Ameer Speed: That dude is tall, long and fast. If something happens with Jack Jones, I would love to see the Patriots keep him over Shaun Wade just for the mystery and upside. Maybe Speed could actually be what they thought Ras-I Dowling and Joejuan Williams would be.
ON THE DECLINE
CB Jack Jones: This is rather obvious after the gun charges that could land him in prison.
OT Trent Brown: After not seeing him during OTAs, then him being late to minicamp and showing up out of shape, the Patriots have to be going over their options.
DT Lawrence Guy: Love the big guy and he should always have a spot here if he wants it, but this feels like the vet doesn't think $2.8 million is enough to keep beating up his body.
LB Raekwon McMillan: This is only because of injury, nothing else. He was set to have a major role again and this kind of leaves a sneaky void.
LB Mack Wilson: He got McMillan's reps ... because they don't have any other ready options (wouldn't it be nice to have a young LB ready to go?). Was still a surprise they re-signed him.
WR Kayshon Boutte: Seemed to be an injury involved, but he did not pop at all.
OL Sidy Sow: The initial brief snapshot was that he is not on the fast track to battling for a starting job, but a lot changes when the pads go on.
S Adrian Phillips: This is just one of those little voices in my head and nothing more ... could he be out if the Patriots love a lot of their youth and sign Kyle Dugger to an extension? How many safeties does one team need?
PROJECTION 53.23.02
The only real change here is the addition of Firkser, and I borrowed the roster spot from defense (screw you, Bill! ;))
The Patriots could add more at RB.
Same at WR, as we're still waiting for DeAndre Hopkins.
Like three TEs but Firkser could be a practice squad addition to start the season instead, I could see that.
Unless Brown goes, I see no change at tackle.
Bill Murray is making a push at guard, and I could see James Ferentz on the practice squad at the ready.
Ok, so this is where the big change is. After losing McMillan ... I'm not replacing him with a traditional linebacker. Belichick is probably passed out somewhere reading this.
My thinking is this: the Patriots don't really like Wilson that much and just brought him back for kicks and maybe the light goes on. Just because he got time doesn't mean that has happened (and I can't tell you it has not). And, really, he's only going to be on the field in passing situations. Between Dugger, Peppers and, especially, Mapu, don't they have that covered (even Phillips is an option there)? I really do think this is setting up as Mapu's spot and Wilson is just holding the seat warm until the pads go on and he proves it.
If Jack Jones goes, the Patriots don't have enough at CB. They're almost back to the same spot before drafting Gonzalez. Not enough size, which is where Speed would factor in. Or maybe they just keep Bledsoe instead and have Mills as a half corner/safety — or just move Mills back to corner. I like Bledsoe. They will try hard to keep him, but he's not do or die.
I'm not even getting into this right now, or the prospect of the Patriots keeping all four kickers (two starting on the practice squad). I just can't.
(Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
Green Bay, WI - October 2: New England Patriots CB Jack Jones celebrates his interception for a touchdown. The Patriots lost to the Green Bay Packers, 27-24, in overtime.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. I'm not even going to try to predict what's going to happen with Jack Jones' legal proceedings. We all know how serious the Commonwealth considers these charges, but there always seem to be mitigating factors that could contribute to a different outcome. Would I be surprised if he does time? No. Would I be surprised if this results in a misdemeanor and he remains a member of the Patriots? No. This could end up being the proverbial second strike for the 25-year-old cornerback who always seems to find himself in some predicament dating back to stops at three colleges. He is a very talented player, and the Patriots and Belichick probably don't want to be turning their back on talent possibly prematurely. Desperate times call for desperate measures. If this was 2004, would Jones still be here? No.
2. I am curious to see how the league and Roger Goodell deal with it. There have only been four recent suspensions where weapons have been at the heart of it, and all had aggravating/violent circumstances that seem to be absent here:
- Colts S Mike Doss, 2005 (before Goodell): 2 games after pleading down to misdemeanor charges stemming from firing a gun into the air outside a restaurant.
- Bengals WR Chris Henry, 2006: 2 games after a whole host of troubling off-field incidents, including possessing a firearm outside a nightclub.
- Bears DT Tank Johnson, 2007: 8 games after a series of incidents, including possession of six firearms and violation of probation on other charges.
- Giants WR Plaxico Burress, 2008: 4 games for discharging a gun inside a club, which injured the receiver.
That was the last suspension related to guns — 15 years ago. And they all had aggravating circumstances and a risk to public safety. So based on that, a suspension would be a surprise, but the Patriots could put one in place themselves, which I'm sure the NFL would welcome.
Remember, "Illegal possession of a gun or other weapon (such as explosives, toxic substances, and the like), or possession of a gun or other weapon in any workplace setting; " is prohibited conduct in the personal conduct policy.
3. However, given that the NBA just suspended Ja Morant for 25 games (30% of the season) for a second social media video holding a gun in a public setting (eight games previously for a night club) — I wonder if Roger Goodell might be more inclined to follow suit.
You should know by now that Goodell does nothing unless he thinks there's a) good publicity for himself to the league to partners, or b) money in it. I could see him being very much swayed by the current climate on guns and athletes (like he was from 2006-08), and he could want to remind the current wave of players how serious this is again by making an example of Jones, especially if the serious charges are not erased. I could see Goodell not wanting to look weak compared to the NBA, and suspending Jones as a result. I'm sure the NFLPA would put up a good fight for show, but all know where this is going: Brady v. NFL reaffirmed the commissioner's power via Article 46 to do whatever he wants. Fair has nothing to do with it.
4. Not much new on the Hopkins Watch. Positive meeting from both sides, which was to be expected. Not sure how specific they've gotten on numbers, but I don't believe the Patriots are interested in making a huge push. They know Hopkins is playing the leverage game, and they're confident they'll be right there at the end. No timetable from what I've heard. Belichick could press the issue at any time. I do wonder how much Juju Smith-Schuster's injury is factoring in. He battled a knee injury late last season, and was healthy enough to practice with the Patriots the first day of OTAs, but not publicly since. Is this going to be a lingering issue?
5. Regardless of Smith-Schuster, the Patriots need Hopkins ... and they need a tackle. The Bengals have three starters: Orlando Brown, Jonah Williams and La'el Collins. Get Hopkins and one of those players, and then the Patriots become a legit threat in the AFC East.