CURRENT SITUATION
On the roster: Davon Godchaux (2025), Christian Barmore (2025), Lawrence Guy (2025), Sam Roberts (2026), Daniel Ekuale (2025), Carl Davis Jr. (2024).
Futures contracts: Bill Murray, Jeremiah Pharms.
Patriots Historical Drafting
Over the last 16 years, the Patriots have made 13 selections. Almost all of those picks have come from major conferences, with the SEC having 5 selections. One exception was last year's pick Sam Roberts (Northwest Missouri State) who essentially redshirted as he made the leap in competition. The Patriots have done well with Malcom Brown (Texas) and early returns on Christian Barmore (Alabama) are great. The Patriots get a passing grade with Byron Cowart (Maryland). The biggest misses were Dominique Easley (Florida) and Ron Brace (BC).
Draft Expectations for the Position
From a league perspective, draft numbers aren’t as clear because of the evolution of what the front seven means in different schemes (DE vs. OLB). We’ll focus on the edge in another write-up but let's stick right on the line of scrimmage. Over the last 6 years, there have been 2.3 true defensive tackles selected in the first round. In 2019 there were 6 which inflated the numbers. Last year there were two (both from Georgia). This year is an average class. Jalen Carter is a step above the rest of the position group. After that, there is talent coupled with limitations.
The Patriots stayed healthier this past season and were a top-10 run defense. So, this doesn’t appear to be a top need. But the draft is about the future. Last year they passed on a young run-stuffing NT and doubled down on Godchaux. It worked but with players like Guy and Davis over 30 years old (and even Wise will be 29) they need to start developing depth pieces. Someone to pair with Barmore.
The best Patriots teams, and Bill Belichick defenses, all had the ability to control the LOS and were strong up the middle. There’s a solid chance they take a player to continue to build future defensive line depth.
Potential First-Rounders
DT Jalen Carter, Georgia (6-foot-3, 314 pounds): He's going to be a 3-technique at the next level, but he could really play in any scheme. In the NFL, guys have to win man-on-man. He's a guy that will win. He has an elite first step, very good with his hands and lawnmower power. He can play the run and the pass. He was hurt this year and didn't have great production but for those consistent readers, you may recall me saying he was their best defensive lineman last year (with 2 other first-round picks). I've long compared him to a shorter Richard Seymour, and I think Carter would benefit from playing at a leaner weight to capitalize on his athleticism. If you're looking for a current comp, Quinnen Williams (Jets) or Fletcher Cox (Eagles). Teams will be drilling into everything off-field given the arrest, overweight at the pro-day, and his medicals are important (knee, ankle). That’s clearly the most important part of his evaluation. Absent some serious concerns, he’s a top-10 pick.
NT Mazi Smith, Michigan (6-3, 323): Smith is the best NT in the class. He was team captain, first-team All-Big Ten and his teammates gave him the nickname “Gorilla” because of his strength. He’s a big athletic guy with good stamina, powerful hands, and that elite strength makes him the strongest player in the class. While he’s not yet elite at occupying multiple blockers, he anchors very well in the run game and he has good short-area quickness. In the pass game, he’ll push the pocket but he's not going to get many hurries or sacks. If you're drafting him, it's to impact the first two downs. He'll be a rotational player on early downs that should develop into a long-term starter that gives you 25 snaps a game.
DT Bryan Bresee, Clemson (6-5, 298): He started as a true freshman for the Tigers, and I thought it was his best season. In 3 years, he’s only played 884 snaps because of injuries. He does a good job keeping his head up which allows him to move with purpose and find the ball better than most even while he's engaged. He needs to watch his pad level but he's ultra-physical, quick hands, and he's agile. I think he was miscast at Clemson. He put on weight to play more 1 or 0 technique. I could see him being a Justin Smith type (former Bengal and 49er) at the next level, slimming down to become a dominating 3-4 end. I think he has enough athleticism to do it. He also carries the mentality you want in a defensive lineman. There’s a chance he drops into early Day 2 and that would represent good value for the Patriots.
DT Calijah Kancey, Pitt (6-1, 281): I think he could be an elite pass-rush specialist. There's only 6 DTs in the NFL under 6 feet. Only 16 under 280 pounds. None that are both. So, it was important that he measured in at 6-1, 281 pounds. He's very athletic, has an advanced pass-rushing repertoire with countering ability. First-team All-ACC, All-American, and ACC DPOY last year. Aaron Donald is a simple comparison given the school, position, and size. Maybe that's not fair but head coach Pat Narduzzi has used that reference as well. It's hard to be a starter at that size in the pros. But he can definitely find a role as a 3-technique penetrator with a floor of a highly effective sub-rusher at the next level. His elite quickness, size (looks like a big FB on the field) and play effort creates problems. He had the fastest 40 time for any DT (4.67) since 2006. He's dangerous when he's able to dictate and he’s going to be more athletic than any offensive lineman. But I think he may struggle with the better technicians at the next level, and I see him as a niche player. He’s not a clean scheme fit for the Patriots.
POTENTIAL PATRIOT FITS BY ROUND
Round 1: Mazi Smith.
If the Patriots move up, Carter is the pick (as long as his off-field issues aren’t substantial). Same type of scenario as Warren Sapp, a player that dropped to 12, before ultimately going on to have a dominating career. That said, I don’t think he gets out of the top 10 and I think it’s more likely they trade back. Assuming the Patriots drop to the bottom of Round 1 then Smith is a potential target.
Michigan strength coach said he's the strongest defensive lineman he's seen in 25 years. "Incredible combination of rare traits packaged into one player. He is just ridiculously strong and powerful."
Round 2: Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin (6-4, 309).
Most NTs carry bad weight. Not the case with Benton, he’s well-built. He’s a really strong run defender who is still developing his pass-rush repertoire, but he has decent initial quickness and plus strength. He was an all-state wrestler, and it shows with his balance and ability to disengage with linemen. He started all 4 seasons for the Badgers and yet he’s only 21 years old. His size, traits mean he may be able to play all over the line of scrimmage as he develops. His best football is still in front of him.
Round 3: Zacch Pickens, South Carolina (6-4, 291).
He's athletic with a great frame. He plays with a good first step and strong motor when on the field he’s not always consistent, which correlates to technique. Disengaging blockers, pass rush plan, etc. He was a top recruit (even played some RB in high school), team captain, and had over 30 starts in the SEC. He cut weight in the offseason and so there's a question of his fit in a two-gap scheme, but he was awesome at the Senior Bowl. I thought he was consistently the best DT in Mobile. He has the upside to be a good starter.
Round 4: Colby Wooden, Auburn (6-4, 273).
Listed as a DT but I think he’s a strong-side DE at the next level. Auburn is more of a traditional gap-penetrating scheme vs. stack and shed so he’ll have an adjustment to a team like the Patriots. But I think he could be a successor to Deatrich Wise. He can play the run or the pass (41 pressures last year). He doesn’t have elite speed or quickness for a true edge, but he offers good agility. He plays with heavy hands to knock back blockers. On passing downs he could be moved inside. Auburn suffered lots of transfers last year due to program turmoil and he stuck it out as a team leader. In short, dependable off the field and on the field. He started every game the last 3 years for the Tigers and coaches talked about how he loves football. One of those guys who will do what it takes to make it.
Round 5: Cameron Young, Miss St (6-3, 304).
Plays with strength and has really long arms attached to powerful hands. He’s consistent with his role, fills the gap and holds up linemen to free up tacklers. In 2021, he made tackles on 11% of snaps which is super impressive from an NT. I thought he was consistently good at the Senior Bowl and could be a backup in the run game next year. If he played 10 years, he might not have 10 sacks but he could develop into a starting DT/NT for early down work.
NT Keondre Coburn (Texas) is another player to watch. He played a ton for Texas and is a true NT.
Round 6: Dante Stills, West Virginia (6-3, 286).
He’s the Mountaineers' all-time leader in TFL and he was a 4x All-Conference player. Stills largely lined up as a 3 technique but he does have experience rushing from multiple roles. For a team like the Patriots, I see him as a rotational 3-4 end. While he needs more anchor strength, he plays with solid quickness and he could be moved inside on passing downs. I thought he was the best defensive lineman at the Shrine Bowl. Both his father and brother played in the league. He was also a locker room leader and his coaches speak highly of him.
DT Scott Matlock (Boise St) is a similar type of target.
Round 7: Jerrod Clark, Coastal Carolina (6-4, 334).
Bonus local selection! Clark is from Dorchester and played at Brighton High. He was originally a TE in high school, so he has decent feet and athleticism. He was a team captain with some long arms which is a plus at the nose. Improving on his hands and feeling the speed on the inside will help him. Some of the guys at the Senior Bowl talked about how hard he was to play against because of his size. He doesn’t have a great body, but he uses the weight to effectively lean on linemen and eat up blocks. I think he’s late Day 3 or a PFA.
Priority Free Agent: PJ Mustipher, Penn St (6’4, 320).
He hurt his knee (ACL) last year but worked his way back this season to have another All-Big Ten-type season. He’s a leader of men and 2x captain for the Nittany Lions. Patriots coached him at the Shrine, and they will know how other players are drawn to him and how he has elite football intelligence. While he’s tough and stout, he’s limited athletically. Good late roster addition to see if he can make the roster as a depth piece.
Rankings
Preseason Rankings
- Jalen Carter, Georgia
- Bryan Bresee, Clemson
- Siaka Ika, Baylor
- Gervon Dexter, Florida
- Brett Johnson, California (lost the season to injury, returning to school)
Post Combine Rankings:
- Jalen Carter, Georgia
- Mazi Smith, Michigan
- Bryan Bresee, Clemson
- Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin
- Zacch Pickens, South Carolina