CURRENT SITUATION
On the roster: Ja'Whaun Bentley (2024 UFA), Raekwon McMillan (2024 UFA), Mack Wilson (2024 UFA), Jalani Tavai (2025 UFA), Chris Board (2025 UFA)
Futures contracts: Olakunle Fatukasi, Calvin Munson, Terez Hall.
Patriots Historical Drafting
Over the last 16 years, the Patriots have made 20 selections. Zero last year. Thirteen of those picks have come from major conferences, with the SEC and Big 10 leading the way. Interestingly, they haven’t picked a LB from the Big 12 or ACC over that period. But they weren’t afraid to pick guys from smaller conferences (7).
The Patriots hit home runs with Jerod Mayo (Tennessee) and Dont’a Hightower (Alabama); both first-rounders. They also did well with second-rounders Jamie Collins (Southern Miss) and Brandon Spikes (Florida). They’ve added some Day 3 picks who have been helpful contributors Ja’Whaun Bentley (Purdue), Elandon Roberts (Houston), and Kamu Grugier-Hill (Eastern Illinois), albeit for other teams.
Draft Expectations for the Position
From a league perspective, draft numbers aren’t as clear because of how teams classify linebackers (LB vs. OLB/Edge). So, the numbers are inflated but according to the NFL, over the last 6 years, there've been 4 linebackers selected in the first round. Last year there were only 2.
This year is a below-average class. There are a number of players that are listed at Edge that I see (and like) as more off-the-ball linebackers (Nolan Smith/Georgia, Nick Herbig/Wisconsin). Then there are players like Drew Sanders (Arkansas) who I see as versatile players who might fit best on the edge (think Kyle Van Noy).
This is a position the Patriots are likely to target at some point in the draft. They traditionally have gone for bigger, stronger linebackers that can withstand the box where things get tighter and move faster in the NFL game. But keep in mind, Teddy Bruschi was one of the best Patriot linebackers over the last 20 years, so they aren’t afraid to go smaller if the player has the right traits (leadership, toughness/physicality, smarts, and blitzing ability).
Patriots fans are begging for them to get more athletic at the LB position and over the last couple of years, the NFL is seeing a trend toward coverage LBs. These guys are either bigger safeties in college or smaller linebackers, but they can specialize against backs and tight ends. For what it’s worth, the Patriots have been using Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers in those types of roles.
I think the best Patriot defenses over the last 20 years have been strong up the middle (Bruschi, Mayo, Hightower, Jaime Collins). At some point, they need to find the next generation linebacker to QB their defense.
Potential First-Rounders
LB Nolan Smith, Georgia (6-2, 238): I think his transition is to off the ball LB. Smith is very athletic, really smart and a team leader. He’s quick off the edge but never produced at a high clip. I think his best trait isn’t rushing the passer, it’s stopping the run. Therefore, I think a move off the ball maximizes his athleticism and time on the field. He tested at an elite level (ran a 4.39) at the Combine. The Georgia coaches rave about him, and they kept him on the travel squad even after he was ruled out for the year with a torn pectoral. He plays hard, he’s physical and his speed shows up when he’s able to track the ball. The fact that he has Edge rushing experience would allow some unique scheme versatility.
Potential Fits for the Patriots by Round
Round 1: Nolan Smith. Provides elite athleticism with the size Belichick covets. He would need a partial redshirt year to adjust to the position change but that aligns with the contract situation on the current roster.
Round 2: Jack Campbell, Iowa (6-5, 249).
He won the Butkus Award, Big Ten DPOY, and Campbell Trophy (Academic Heisman) this year. He’s an effective MLB who communicates and commands the defense. Great feel for the game, solid play recognition and he's consistent as evidenced by leading the country in tackles (143). Plus, everyone in the Iowa building loved him.
There’s a chance a 3-4 team moves him outside to take advantage of his size and length. Good short area quickness and good balance for that height. Iowa has put out good college linebackers but none that have top-tier athleticism that has transferred to NFL success. However, Campbell’s 3-cone drill was elite, and he was a good basketball player in HS. I think he’s a solid Day 2 pick with good instincts, durability, and size (with the frame to add more).
Round 3: Daiyan Henley, Washington St (6-2, 225).
Henley was impressive at the Senior Bowl. I thought his work in coverage was great and he showed good blitzing. He could be an athletic WILL or MIKE. He was a HS QB who was recruited to college (Nevada) as a WR before changing positions. He transferred last year to Washington State and those coaches rave about him and his work ethic. While he’s not a thumper, I do think he has excellent range. Good news for the Patriots, he has special teams’ experience. I came away thinking he’d look good in a Pats uniform.
Round 4: Nick Herbig, Wisconsin (6-2, 240).
He’s a 3-year starter who’s been a very good 3-4 OLB for the Badgers. He's short for an edge guy and not the heft they traditionally like in that role but he's active and plays hard. As a rusher, he wins with effort, quickness, craftiness, and effective hands to free himself from blockers. I believe his best fit at the next level will be off the ball, a better version of former Badger and current Saints LB Zach Baun. Herbig is known for his work ethic inside the program. Reportedly has good range and COD. He did have 95 snaps in coverage this past season so it’s not totally foreign. Per PFF, he broke up more passes (3) than Clemson’s Trenton Simpson did in his entire career. His versatility would be good for a defense, and I don’t think there's any question he's a tough football player.
Round 5: Dorian Williams, Tulane (6-1, 228).
He’s a 3-year starter, team captain and known to be a good leader within the program. He would be an undersized LB for the pro game (similar size to Kyle Dugger). He’s decent in coverage and has a huge wingspan. Not the best at reads but he's fast on the field, closes quickly and he's a strong tackler. Some of the players at the Senior Bowl talked about how hard he was to play against. He'd be a good depth backer in a nickel/WILL role, that would get the team faster and contribute on ST.
Round 6: Aubrey Miller Jr., Jackson St (6-0, 229).
He originally went to Missouri before transferring to play for Coach Deion Sanders. He's been the top LB in HBCUs for a few years and was the SWAC DPOY this year. I heard at the Senior Bowl that he was a good interview for teams and has solid leadership traits. Playing against better competition in Mobile, I thought he got better as the week went along. He packs some power in his shoulders and he forced a fumble in the team session. I liked his athleticism which will help his ST value.
I also like Yasir Abdullah who played more on the edge at Louisville, but I think projects off the ball.
Round 7: Isaiah Moore, NCST (6-2, 233).
He has good size and great traits (3x captain for the Wolfpack). Good instincts to recognize plays and meet the collision with force. Injuries have zapped some of his speed, at least in coverage. I don't know if he's a 3-down backer, but he is good against the run and can make plays behind the LOS. I thought he was the best LB on the "West" squad at the Shrine practices. Because he doesn't have the clean medicals, I expect him to be available later Day 3.
Rankings
Preseason Rankings
- Noah Sewell, Oregon
- Trenton Simpson, Clemson
- Jack Campbell, Iowa
- Nate Herbig, Wisconsin
- DeMarvion Overshown, Texas
Post Combine Rankings:
- Nolan Smith, Georgia
- Jack Campbell, Iowa
- Daiyan Henley, Washington St
- Nick Herbig, Wisconsin
- Drew Sanders, Arkansas