NFL Notebook: Expect the Patriots' QB situation to unfold like every other post-Brady, not some contrived nonsense

In the name of sanity and service to our readers, I'll bite.

There will be a quarterback competition this summer for the Patriots — just like there has always been, especially after Tom Brady departed, and at most NFL camps without an elite, bonafide franchise quarterback. Mac Jones has not earned that status yet, not even close. So he will have to fight for his job.

But it's not some big drama, even though sports talk radio is trying hard to make it a thing. Apparently, the Red Sox, and the strong-looking Bruins and Celtics aren't moving the needle enough. Nothing like the fake outrage over the quarterback and a competition to drive numbers.

Like always, my advice is to ignore the noise and only listen to informed and experienced voices on this.

Remember, in the summer of 2021 when Cam Newton and Jones were on the roster at the same time, there were members of the media that declared that the competition was over in favor of Newton in the early going, and that Jones had dramatically fallen. Some of us set you straight and told you that, in fact, the competition hadn't even started yet:

July 31st: Some things you should know about the Patriots' QB competition that hasn't started yet
Aug. 5: True and false about the Patriots' quarterback competition
Aug. 25: When Cam Newton returns, Bill Belichick shouldn't give him his job back

(There's also this three-part series after the fact on how Jones won the job that summer.)

Here's the absolute truth about the Patriots and their quarterback situation. Jones hasn't earned anything yet, and that has nothing to do with any ax-grinding leaks coming out of Foxborough or last season. It's just a fact.

In the lead-up to offseason practices and training camp, I expect to hear similar statements to what Belichick said in 2021:

"Every year is pretty much a clean slate for me with everybody," Belichick said. "Myself, other coaches that have a lot of experience, players that have a lot of experience, we all have to start all over again, new players, how fast, and what kind of impact they'll have. There's really no way of knowing or predicting, you just have to take it day by day and see how it comes along. Some young players start fast and fizzle out. Some start slow and come on strong. Some start fast and keep it at that level. Some players never really have a big impact.

"I'm not really big on the expectations. We'll go out there and continue the process we started in the spring and see how all the players and our team come along and how it all fits together. I don't know exactly how that's going to go, and I'm sure we'll see some things along the way that we haven't prepared for that we'll have to adjust to. That's part of football and part of coaching and part of the NFL season. I think we'll just have to see how it goes."

It should also be noted that Belichick, after Jones was drafted 15th overall, said this about his QB situation:

"Cam's our quarterback," Belichick said on April 29th. "Whatever position, whatever time Jarrett or Mac are ready to challenge and compete, then we'll see how that goes."

No, Belichick did not say the same thing about Jones this year at the league meetings. But he did set a similar tone to the one before the 2021 training camp, when he did not make any grand declarations about the QB position.

"As I said every one of us has to go out and establish our level of performance whatever our role or capacity is," Belichick said. "It's a new season. We've done some things in the spring, but this is really the start of football season in terms of the team-building part here in training camp. We all have a lot of work to do. That includes all of us. So we go out and do anything, so it's pretty much a clean slate."

Does that mean things have changed?

Not exactly. Some might bring up the fact that Belichick didn't say Newton's name during Tuesday's session. But it's also a fact — and likely not a coincidence — that Belichick did not name one player during the interview.

Camp is starting. Time for the team to get better, in other words.

A year ago (before 2020), Belichick said similar things about the quarterback position when the only players on the roster were Newton, Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer.

"Well, I think that spot is the same as all the other spots on the team. We’ve got a long way to go and we’ll see how things turn out," Belichick said. "I can’t control how players perform. That’s up to them. We’ll give everybody an opportunity and see what happens. I don’t know."

I would expect Belichick to use similar phrases this year that will be jumped on ... but, in fact, are status quo for him.

How do I think things will go at quarterback this spring/summer? Will Bailey Zappe get a real chance?

The short answer is, yes, he'll get a real chance — just not in the sexy manner some people would want.

I think Jones will get the majority of the first-team reps, but you have to remember that with Bill O'Brien here and with many different experiences (Deshaun Watson, college game at Alabama) since the last time he was on those practice fields, the entire Patriots offense is going to be learning a (somewhat) new system. I expect OTAs and mini-camps to be a lot of teaching, and everybody needs to learn. There won't be a "competition" in the spring, but the Patriots are keeping track. Training camp will start with more teaching, and then the competition is on.

How Jones and Zappe fare during through mini-camp in June will determine how heavy the competition is, come August. If Jones is comfortable, coachable, improving and executing at a high level, he'll get the majority of first-team snaps in August. If Jones stumbles and Zappe looks good on the same plays, then it will be much more even in camp.

Jones will have an edge — there's a reason he was drafted 15th overall and Zappe went 137th one year later (the Patriots adhere to a strict grading system), plus Jones looked like he was on his way as a rookie with a 10-7 record and playoff berth under a real offensive coordinator — but that can easily evaporate, even in the spring. Jones will have to re-establish himself, and that goes for most everyone coming off an 8-9 record.

Jones, who beat out future Heisman Trophy winner and top overall pick Bryce Young at Alabama when most expected him to take the job easily, is not afraid of competition and doesn't expect to be handed anything.

Outside of that, Zappe also deserves no special treatment.

If, as reports have stated, the Patriots believe that there's not a huge difference between Jones and Zappe, and Zappe follows the coaching better, why didn't the Patriots insert Zappe into the starting lineup after Jones acted his worst as the team went 1-2 against the Bills, Cardinals and Raiders?

I'll tell you why: it's revisionist crap.

The Patriots were 7-7 and the season was hanging in the balance. Jones was out of control at times and hurting the team, which we said at the time. If Belichick truly believed Zappe and all his executing and following the coaching gave the Patriots the best chance to earn a playoff berth, then Belichick easily could have benched Jones — and he would have been justified.

But he didn't. Why? Because he knew Jones gave the Patriots the best chance for victory. He didn't make more of Zappe's playing time against the Packers, Lions, Browns and Bears. Even if others want to ignore the context, Belichick did not.

I mean, by the same rationale used against Jones, why didn't the Cowboys keep Cooper Rush at quarterback over Dak Prescott?

Rush won the first five starts of his career, including 4-0 in 2022 as the Cowboys went from 0-1 to 4-1 with Rush as the starter — and two of those wins, as opposed to Zappe's resume, were over future playoff teams (Bengals, Giants). Why did Prescott get his job back? He had just a 1-3 postseason record before this season, and that was with Dallas riding Zeke Elliot (30 touches, 169 yards, TD) against the Seahawks.

Because, like Belichick, Mike McCarthy lives in reality — and Rush was 18 of 38 with 3 INTs against the Eagles even though they were a wagon and a future Super Bowl participant, and never heard from again.

Meanwhile in New England, Zappe's Rush-esque pumpkin moment came against the Bears. The Patriots were outscored 23-0 and Zappe was 9 of 16 for 76 yards and 2 INTs in the second half — against a team that would not win another game the rest of season.

Zappe never played another snap. Not one. Rush only got into two blowouts.

Does Zappe's playing time sound like a player that the coaches believe is thisclose to Jones?

Of course not, so why would things be any different now after an offseason when Jones hasn't said anything, and the sniping has all come out of One Patriots Place?

It isn't, no matter what the contrived noise says.

But make no mistake, there will be a competition ... if Jones opens the door. He and the Patriots haven't proven anything yet.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Happy 71st birthday to Bill Belichick.

If he coaches two more seasons, he will be the oldest coach in NFL history (Belichick would beat Romeo Crennel's record by two months) when the 2025 season commences.

2. Here are the other oldest NFL coaches, and their records down the stretch by age.

Marv Levy (career winning percentage: .561)

1994/69: 7-9
1995/70: 10-6/1-1
1996/71: 10-6/0-1
1997/72: 6-10

Total: 33-31/1-2 — 34-33 (.507)

George Halas (career winning percentage: .682)

1964/69: 5-9
1965/70: 9-5
1966/71: 5-7-2
1967/72: 7-6-1

Total: 26-27-3 (.491)

Romeo Crennel (career winning percentage: .337)

2020/73: 4-8 (.333)

Bill Belichick (career winning percentage: .662)

2020/68: 7-9
2021/69: 10-7/0-1
2022/70: 8-9
2023/71: ?

Total: 25-25/0-1 — 25-26 (.490)

3. I don't know what the heck this means, but DeAndre Hopkins had the same reaction to possibly being traded to the Patriots as the Jets. He was very excited about the Bills and Chiefs.

4. The Dolphins signed former Panthers and Cardinals receiver Chosen/Robby Anderson, giving them even more weapons — and they're being rumored to be on Vikings RB Dalvin Cook, who could be traded or released.

Dolphins weapon ... Patriots equivalent (not same positions but in terms of initial depth)

Tyreek Hill ... Juju Smith-Schuster
Jaylen Waddle ... Devante Parker
Cedrick Wilson ... Kendrick Bourne
Braxton Berrios ... Tyquan Thornton
Chosen Anderson ... Mike Gesicki

Right now the Patriots have a huge advantage at TE (Hunter Henry vs. Durham Smythe) but Miami is expected to make that position a priority in the draft. Dolphins don't have a first-round pick, and just a second, third, sixth and seventh.

5. The Patriots media will get their first opportunity to hear from offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien (we think) — and all the assistants — on Tuesday. We'll get 15 minutes with the special teams/defensive coaches, then 15 minutes with the offensive coaches. It should be noted, because nothing is done by accident with the Patriots, that the announcement says "defensive position coaches" and "offensive position coaches." Interesting designation. They wouldn't hold back O'Brien and/or Joe Judge, would they (Judge probably more likely)? Matt Groh is also scheduled to give us 15 minutes on the draft.