Exactly how and why the Patriots and Bill Belichick came to the conclusion that rookie Mac Jones should be the Week 1 starter at quarterback and Cam Newton needed to be released will likely remain cloudy for some time. When we get information and details on that, we'll pass it along in an occasional series, The Decision.
Along those lines, we have the coaches' film from the preseason games now. These are not widely available, as they are not part of GamePass. So we're going back over these games and re-grading the film. We're going to grade every throw and decision now that we have better context through the all-22. And, as always, we'll be providing video analysis of key plays (six clips here).
There's some new information in here, including one play that showed the clear disparity between how this pass offense would run with Jones compared to Newton.
Just in this game, Newton had trouble dealing with the pressure from the Giants. He basically had to throw two passes to end his first drive away because he didn't or couldn't adjust the play at the line of scrimmage.
Remember last year when we would complain about Newton not dealing with obvious pressure well because he couldn't access the tools this system provides? Well, Jones used four of those tools on one play.
If you were looking for one play as to why the Patriots chose Jones over Newton, it's in here.
PATRIOTS VS. GIANTS
Cam Newton
2-6-50 (12:06) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass short right to J.Meyers to NYG 44 for 6 yards (D.Holmes). P1
Snap to pass: 2.88 seconds
Comment: Good, timely low hard throw by Newton to Meyers to pick up the first down.
Pass grade (out of 5): 4.0
2-7-NYG 23 (10:15) C.Newton pass incomplete short left to J.Meyers.
1.25 seconds
There were eight guys in the box before this snap ... the good thing is Newton realized the linebacker was going to be unblocked so he had to get rid of the ball. Possibly the receivers were supposed to do something different. But ... the Patriots, with Newton in his second season, don't have a better answer for this by now? No check to a quick rub route or something? I think Newton should have changed the protection.
2.0
3-7-NYG 23 (10:11) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass incomplete short left to N.Agholor
2.46 seconds
Giants at least show pressure again, and no one is really open so I don't have a problem with decision because it ended up being right. Wanted to give Newton credit for seeing the robber diving down on Meyers in the middle of the field, but the end zone shot shows Newton just stared Agholor down to no avail. The staredown is a slight minus for me because if the Giants stayed two shell, Meyers was going to be wide open.
2.0
2-6-NE 7 (2:22) C.Newton pass short right to N.Agholor to NE 11 for 4 yards (J.Bradberry).
1.52 seconds
Newton gets the ball there but kind of telegraphs it. Could have been even quicker. No better options.
2.0
(1:17) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass deep middle intended for J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by B.Martinez at NE 41. B.Martinez to NE 41 for no gain
2.83 seconds
This is the play we all saw a million times. While this was mostly a great interception by Blake Martinez and Newton's pass wasn't terrible, still think the better play was for Newton to follow Jakobi Meyers' raised hand and just throw a go. And if you're going to put it on the receiver, at least throw it back shoulder to he can make a play and the linebacker can't.
1.5
MAC JONES
1-10-NE 20 (11:20) 10-M.Jones in at Quarterback. (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle.
PENALTY on NYG-D.Lawrence, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 20 - No Play. X3
Screen snuffed out by the Giants, and JJ Taylor was held coming out.
2.5
1-15-NE 20 (11:16) M.Jones pass deep middle to K.Wilkerson to NE 41 for 21 yards (R.Williams). P4
3.34 seconds
Playaction pass, Jones is getting pressure from the Giants' starting defensive line against the Patriots' backups and can't follow through, but he still gets enough on it to complete it 30 yards in the air. Really nice throw.
4.0
3-4-NE 47 (9:30) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to K.Wilkerson.
PENALTY on NYG-J.Bradberry, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play. X5
1.96 seconds
If you were Josh McDaniels and you had one play to take to Bill Belichick to make your case as to why Jones should be the opening-day starter, this would be it.
Remember how Newton handled obvious pressure earlier in the game (let alone last season)? Compare it to this play.
On this play, Jones:
- Used a dummy snap count to get the Giants to show their pressure look;
- Changed the Mike identification and told Devin Asiasi to stay in to block;
- Changed Kristian Wilkerson's route;
- Changed the routes on the left side of the formation.
Asiasi doesn't block this correctly (I don't think) and Jones doesn't make a great throw (if Wilkerson ran the route properly) to complete this pass without the defensive hold, but Jones used the tools at his disposal in this offense to counter the defense, and that hasn't been seen since the former starting QB.
4.5
1-10-NYG 48 (9:24) M.Jones pass short left to D.Asiasi pushed ob at NYG 29 for 19 yards (L.Ryan). P6
2.63 seconds
Not exactly the most difficult play, but perfectly run by Jones and the ball placement allowed for YAC.
4.0
3-9-NYG 28 (7:41) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NYG 30 for -2 yards (D.Lawrence).
3.52 seconds
First sack of the game ... the line wasn't great. Olszewski seemed to have the best potential but not sure Jones could see him with Dexter Lawrence driving Justin Herron back. I think this play was supposed to be a Wilkerson pick for JJ Taylor, but I don't think Wilkerson got to his spot in time. The play was a bit of a mess, which is what you get with starters against backups.
2.0
1-10-NE 20 (3:51) M.Jones pass incomplete short right to G.Olszewski.
2.57 seconds
Great throw against pressure, bad drop by Olszewski.
4.0
2-20-NE 10 (3:22) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to J.Taylor to NE 18 for 8 yards (D.Holmes; R.Ragland).
3.70 seconds
Checkdown. Right decision.
2.5
3-12-NE 18 (2:42) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to G.Olszewski (J.Love).
3.51 seconds
Little late on the throw but Olszewski could have helped his QB a little bit more by a) settling into the zone better, and b) coming back to the ball to cut off the cornerback.
2.0
1-10-NE 36 (:12) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 29 for -7 yards (L.Carter)
3.53 seconds.
No one was open and this was end of the half, just want to hold onto the ball.
2.5
1-10-NE 25 (15:00) M.Jones pass short left to K.Wilkerson to NYG 48 for 27 yards (C.Johnson; M.Harper). P8
3.88 seconds.
Good throw with some heat and right on the money for some YAC.
4.0
1-10-NYG 48 (14:20) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to R.Stevenson to NYG 42 for 6 yards (D.Downs).
Quick throw in flat.
2.5
2-4-NYG 42 (13:38) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to K.Wilkerson (W.Henry).
1.81 seconds.
Pass batted down. Had a couple of inside seam routes coming open, would have liked to see him throw one of those.
1.0
1-10-NYG 17 (12:16) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to I.Zuber for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. P11
1.82 seconds.
Pre-snap recognition? Check. Look off the safety? Check. Rip it in there? Check. Throw a timely ball so your receiver has time to protect himself and power into the end zone? Check. Outstanding.
5.0
1-10-NE 31 (5:32) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to D.Asiasi to NE 40 for 9 yards (C.Coughlin).
2.78 seconds.
Jones held the safety, stepped up in the pocket and despite getting hit, delivered a perfect backshoulder throw to Asiasi. Contrast this to Newton's INT.
5.0
1-10-NYG 20 (9:55) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to R.Stevenson to NYG 9 for 11 yards (R.Williams; N.Lalos).
1.33 seconds.
Quick throw for the easy money against this defense.
3.5
1-9-NYG 9 (9:14) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to I.Zuber (R.Williams).
1.64 seconds.
Should have been a touchdown. Drop. Perfect backshoulder throw.
4.5
1-10-NE 31 (5:32) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to D.Asiasi to NE 40 for 9 yards (C.Coughlin).
2.19 seconds.
Solid zone read and throw.
3.0
1-10-NE 46 (4:16) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 41 for -5 yards (T.Harris).
3.87 seconds.
Should have just checked the ball down to Taylor. Got a little greedy.
1.0
2-15-NE 41 (3:39) M.Jones pass short right to J.Taylor to 50 for 9 yards (C.Coughlin).
PENALTY on NE-I.Zuber, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.
Screen.
2.5
2-25-NE 31 (3:10) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to I.Zuber to NE 39 for 8 yards (R.Williams; S.Beal).
3.63 seconds.
Solid checkdown decision.
2.5
3-17-NE 39 (2:32) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 33 for -6 yards (W.Henry).
5.13 seconds.
Not sure if Jones was under orders or had designs to throw it to the sticks, but he passed up three checkdown options to take a sack after an eternity. Not a great way to finish.
1.0
IN CONCLUSION
Passes graded below average (Giants game)
Newton 4 of 5 (80 percent)
Jones 5 of 21 (23.8 percent)
Passes graded below average (3 games)
Newton 11 of 21 (52.4 percent)
Jones 11 of 64 (17.2 percent)
Passes graded above average (Giants game)
Newton 1 of 5 (20 percent)
Jones 10 of 21 (47.6 percent)
Passes graded above average (3 games)
Newton 6 of 21 (28.6 percent)
Jones 27 of 64 (42.2 percent)
You combine those numbers — plus the huge disparity in reps for Jones — and add in the play that we illustrated where Jones showed his potential operating this system to some of it's capacity, and this seems like a very open and shut case.
Not more really needs to be said about the on-field competition.