Exactly how and why the Patriots and Bill Belichick came to the conclusion that rookie Mac Jones should be the Week 1 starter at quarterback and Cam Newton needed to be released will likely remain cloudy for some time. When we get information and details on that, we'll pass it along in an occasional series, The Decision.
Along those lines, we have the coaches' film from the preseason games now. These are not widely available, as they are not part of GamePass. So we're going back over these games and re-grading the film. We're going to grade every throw and decision now that we have better context through the all-22. And, as always, we'll be providing video analysis of key plays (eight clips here). There's some new information in here, including why Mac Jones scrambled instead of throwing the ball, how Kristian Wilkerson had some route-running issues that were a problem, and Gunner Olszewski costing a big final play because he didn't run the route full-go:
PATRIOTS VS. WASHINGTON
Cam Newton
2-8-NE 22 (11:24) C.Newton pass incomplete short right to J.Smith.
Snap to pass: 2.53 seconds
Comment: Could have put it on Jonnu Smith and given him a chance to make a play. Could have faked the rusher and bought time to go to LaCosse.
Pass grade (out of 5): 2.0
3-8-NE 22 (11:20) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass incomplete short middle to J.Meyers [C.Young].
2.27 seconds
Could have been in a little more of a hurry with obvious pressure coming with seven players in the box. Possibly just run to right at the snap.
Pass grade: 2.0
1-10-NE 30 (7:26) C.Newton pass short right to J.Meyers to NE 41 for 11 yards (W.Jackson).
3.46 seconds, playaction
Good throw as Meyers was being held at the top of the route. Good heat. Might have run playaction to wrong side.
Pass grade: 4.0
1-10-WAS 47 (6:07) C.Newton pass short left to J.Smith pushed ob at WAS 31 for 16 yards (K.Fuller).
2.93 seconds
Not sure why he went so quickly to checkdown. Had all day with Washington in obvious zone coverage.
Pass grade: 2.5
1-10-WAS 31 (5:34) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass short right to J.White to WAS 14 for 17 yards (C.Holcomb).
1.97 seconds, screen
Pass grade: 2.5 (screen times are not counted; all completed screens get neutral grade)
2-17-WAS 21 (3:56) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass short right to J.White to WAS 16 for 5 yards (J.Bostic).
3.03 seconds
Quick checkdown to White. Heard Chase Young’s footsteps. Didn’t step up. Had options on this play to Smith and the dig. The play I had the most problem with.
Pass grade: 1.5
3-12-WAS 16 (3:19) (Shotgun) C.Newton pass incomplete short left to J.White
1.93 seconds
White screen. Young didn't take bait. Looked like White was maybe going to take it inside but Newton didn't read it the same way. A messy play that didn't need to be this bad.
Pass grade: 2.0
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MAC JONES
2-5-NE 31 (:20) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to J.Meyers
2.75 seconds
Hit as he was throwing. Low throw without much juice, but got the job done vs. pressure.
Pass grade: 3.5
3-5-NE 31 (:14) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to K.Wilkerson to NE 38 for 7 yards (T.McTyer).
2.27
Quick hitch. Good, safe decision and delivered on time.
Pass grade: 3.0
1-10-NE 38 (15:00) M.Jones pass short middle to K.Bourne to WAS 49 for 13 yards (B.McCain; J.Davis).
2.19
Staple bang action play delivered well and on time by Jones. Nothing all that out of the ordinary, but into traffic.
Pass grade: 3.0
1-10-WAS 34 (13:23) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to K.Wilkerson.
2.26
Dropped by Wilkerson in end zone. Perfectly thrown. A better receiver stems the route and leaves himself an opening on the sideline.
Pass grade: 4.0
3-7-WAS 31 (12:37) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short right to K.Bourne.
2.13
Decision was fine. No one open.
Pass grade: 2.5
1-10-NE 20 (6:37) M.Jones pass short middle to J.Taylor to NE 31 for 11 yards (J.Phillips).
3.19
Decision to checkdown was solid. Harry not settling into zone on second level might have been a problem.
Pass grade: 2.5
1-10-NE 31 (5:58) M.Jones pass short left to J.Taylor to NE 33 for 2 yards (J.Moreland). PENALTY on NE-A.Redmond, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at NE 31 - No Play.
2.95 Screen
Pass grade: 2.5
1-15-NE 26 (5:28) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to K.Wilkerson pushed ob at NE 34 for 8 yards (J.Phillips).
2.64
Right decision to check down. Nothing readily open down the field.
Pass grade: 2.5
2-7-NE 34 (4:59) M.Jones pass short left to J.Johnson pushed ob at NE 39 for 5 yards (J.Phillips).
1.76
Low throw. Solid decision.
Pass grade: 2.0
3-2-NE 39 (4:33) (Shotgun) M.Jones scrambles up the middle to NE 40 for 1 yard (W.Bradley-King)
2.94
Looks like Jones wanted to go Bourne on a rub route, but Bourne gets tripped up by the linebacker, and Jones has to keep the ball. Good decision. Bad spot. Should been a first down.
Pass grade: 3.0
Second half
1-10-NE 25 (15:00) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to J.Taylor to NE 32 for 7 yards (J.Norris).
3.15
Wanted Harry, but not open. Gunner open but too late for Jones.
Pass grade: 2.5
2-3-NE 32 (14:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to N.Harry to NE 36 for 4 yards (D.Forrest).
2.15
Nothing open.
Pass grade: 2.5
1-10-NE 36 (14:03) (No Huddle) M.Jones pass short right to K.Wilkerson to NE 40 for 4 yards (T.McTyer).
1.43
Quick out. Liked Gunner on other side better with better numbers so minus decision.
Pass grade: 2.0
2-6-NE 40 (13:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to K.Wilkerson pushed ob at NE 46 for 6 yards (D.Forrest).
1.14
Designed screen.
Pass grade: 2.5
1-10-NE 46 (13:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to J.Taylor to WAS 48 for 6 yards (K.Hudson).
2.0
Little quick on this decision. May have had LaCosse if he waited a beat longer.
Pass grade: 2.0
3-3-WAS 47 (12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to K.Wilkerson to WAS 39 for 8 yards (T.McTyer).
2.4
Moves linebacker with slight shoulder fake. Throws it to Wilkerson before he's out of break in a perfect spot.
Pass grade: 4.5
1-10-WAS 39 (11:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to J.Taylor to WAS 37 for 2 yards (D.Lawrence).
Screen
Pass grade: 2.5
2-10-WAS 28 (10:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to K.Wilkerson to WAS 22 for 6 yards (B.Rotimi, J.Kunaszyk).
Screen
Pass grade: 2.5
3-4-WAS 22 (9:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to K.Wilkerson [J.Reed].
2.84
A FUBAR play. Both tackles miss their cut blocks, Wilkerson ran the wrong route. A lot went wrong.
Pass grade: 2.5
1-15-NE 35 (2:05) M.Jones pass incomplete short right to K.Wilkerson [D.Wise].
2.90
Really good throw under pressure. Wilkerson a) was really soft at the top of his route, and b) still dropped the ball that would have been perfect had he come out of his break well.
Pass grade: 4.0
2-15-NE 35 (2:00) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 26 for -9 yards (sack split by B.Rotimi and D.Bada).
3.5 seconds.
Nothing open. Actually moves well to avoid first rusher.
Pass grade: 2.5
3-24-NE 26 (1:20) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to G.Olszewski.
3.72
Perfect pass, should have been a big play in long yardage, and Gunner didn’t run the route out full.
Pass grade: 4.5
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IN CONCLUSION
Obviously Newton didn't receive all that many opportunities. And it was also obvious the Patriots were more interested in giving Jones a series with the first-team offensive line (his only one of the preseason) than making sure Newton got his work in. We definitely thought that was significant at the time, but looms even larger in hindsight. There were times during this camp and preseason where it felt like the Patriots were testing Jones to see if they should keep pushing him. This was a big test, in my opinion, and he did very well.
I don't think either quarterback was all that great in the game, as evidenced by two grades in C range.
Jones was quicker, and he was clearly better although that's a bit unfair given that Jones had 22 dropbacks and Newton just seven.
Jones did have 4 "A "(4-5 points) throws in 22 attempts (18 percent). Newton had 1 in 7 (14 percent).
But Jones had only 3 of 22 plays below average (13.6 percent). Newton had 4 in 7 (57.1 percent).
That could be the point of all this, and a big reason why Jones won out over Newton: Both will give you similar good plays, but Jones will minimize the poor plays.
Through one game, similar ceiling, Jones has the higher floor.
Game 1 winner: Jones.