Ok, I've had enough of the misinformation. Here is the honest truth about where Cam Newton and Mac Jones stand.
Let's play some true/false on these statements:
Mac Jones trailed in the quarterback competition and it was slipping away until the last two days.
Mac Jones was terrible in the first padded practice, and that was a bad sign.
Padded practices mean more.
The competition started the past two practices, so ignore the noise about Jones' start to camp.
Mac Jones has gotten more reps the last two days because they are testing him.
Newton hasn't improved much.
The Patriots are definitely going with Newton to start the season.
Belichick hates rookies, he's definitely going with Newton.
You should be using the reported camp stats as a barometer of the day.
The Patriots' offense looks better with Mac Jones.
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Mac Jones trailed in the quarterback competition and it was slipping away until the last two days.
Answer: FALSE.
Certainly every rep is an opportunity to do something, positive or negative, but the first five days of practice were not competition. The Patriots were continuing the install of their red zone packages. It was largely new for all of the offensive personnel, except for Brian Hoyer (which is why he looked the best on a couple of days). The sixth day of camp, the first in pads, was about the running game.
"It’s more about the process, I think. Right now, everybody is in a learning phase," said Josh McDaniels. "To me, what we’re trying to focus on is everybody getting enough reps at the core foundational things in our offense. When we’re charting, I’m not charting — I mean, I know how many completions and incompletions we have because I am an offensive coach — but that’s really not the important part for me right now. ... Eventually, as we all know we’re going to end up dwindling down the team and all the rest of it and those guys will get more reps together, but right now everybody is taking reps and trying to build our foundation so we can carry ourselves the entire length of the season, which is really what this time to me is all about.”
The first six days of reps were not competitive in my experience. They were teaching. You certainly don't want to look bad, but they don't mean that much when it comes to other situations in practice that haven't even transpired yet.
Mac Jones was terrible in the first padded practice, and that was a bad sign.
Answer: FALSE.
The first padded practice, there was barely any passing. The passing that was there was off the running game to keep the defense honest and to start the play-action process. Was Jones good in that practice? No, he wasn't. Was Newton better? Yes he was.
Padded practices mean more.
Answer: Mostly true, but context matters.
Yes, it's true that when players have pads on, everything moves faster and it's closer to real football, even for quarterbacks who aren't supposed to be touched. But it matters what drills the team is doing, and what the plays are.
The first padded practice, to me, was sort of a "welcome back to pads" practice and "we couldn't do squat the first five days, so we're going to hurry up with our run game installs." It was not real passing. The passing was an accent piece for flair.
The competition started the past two practices, so ignore the noise about Jones' start to camp.
Answer: TRUE.
I've covered some quarterback competitions. Had them all three years I was on the Miami beat, especially Jay Fielder against A.J. Feeley. Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington wasn't bad. In Green Bay, there was a very serious backup competition between then-rookies Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm.
What we've seen the past two days has started the process because the Patriots had dropped the learning and now are trying to execute the basics of the Patriots' passing offense. You're getting real 7 on 7s in the middle of the field without down and distance or situations. You're getting the same with some 11 on 11s.
The Patriots are in the process of ramping up. I think they're building to the joint practices. What we have yet to see are all-out drives, and two-minute drills. The only two-minute drills we've seen the past two days have been glorified walkthroughs. They were not competitive. Mac Jones went with the ones on Wednesday, Newton got them today.
At some point, probably early next week, you're going to see 11 on 11 drives where the ball starts on the 25 and 1s go against 1s and 2s go against 2s. How the QBs are split will be an early indicator of where the competition is, but I expect the two QBs to flip days with the 1s on drives. That will tell you that there's a competition.
Patriots will also run two-minute at full speed next week, I suspect. Again, this is another barometer and test. In my mind, drives and two-minute — how each QB handles the offense getting into good plays and adjusting to the defense in those situations — are where QB competitions are won and lost. The other drills are nice, but they're mostly window dressing and a means to an end.
"The important part for me is are we improving in our protection identification? Are we improving in our blitz pickup? Are we improving in our route techniques?" said McDaniels. "For the quarterbacks, are we improving in our read progressions, our throwing mechanics? Those are the things really that are going to carry us through the entire season. It’s not going to be, ‘Well, did we hit this today? Did we hit that the other day?’"
Mac Jones has gotten more reps the last two days because they are testing him.
Answer: Possibly, but to be determined.
Yes, Jones has gotten the vast majority of the reps the past two days, but his time with the starters and backups has been split. My inclination is to say that the Patriots are having him take a few more snaps because Newton at least did it last year, he's a veteran and is used to playing at this speed. Jones has a lot to learn about all this, so he needs a few more reps. I don't take the reps as an indictment of Newton, although I do think he's getting a little impatient with it. For this reason, I would guess a Newton-heavy practice is coming, perhaps in the stadium on Friday night.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Newton hasn't improved much.
Answer: FALSE.
It looked that way during OTAs, but Newton clearly has more comfort in the system and is playing more loosely.
"He just knows much more about we’re doing. It’s a lot less new learning every day, more repetition of things he already understands. That would be true for I think every player I have ever coached in their second year in our system. Things slow down. Things make more sense," said McDaniels. "There were things I was telling him to do last year that he didn’t quite understand, but I was telling him, ‘Hey, do it this way. Try and do it that way. Make him the Mike, whatever.’ He was trying to do everything I said. Now, he actually understands the why on most things. That is really the goal for the quarterbacks — when you’re out there trying to read defenses on a play-to-play basis, if you don’t understand why we’re doing something or why you’re supposed to make the protection slide here or there, it’s a tough position to play. The game has slowed down for him. The offense makes a lot of sense. Like I said, there’s a lot less new learning for him.”
He has stretches where you're like, 'Hey, that looked pretty good.' That even happens on his worst practice days. Certainly, the running aspects help him and he looks comfortable.
The Patriots are definitely going with Newton to start the season.
Answer: FALSE.
McDaniels said something about how all the players need to learn and get comfortable with each other so who is playing with who doesn't really matter at this point.
"There's no way to build the depth on your football team without giving them realistic reps in training camp," he said. "We can sit here and say, ‘Shouldn’t we give N’Keal Harry all the reps at X?’ Well then Nelson Agholor wouldn’t get any reps. It's really impossible to do that. Our goal at the end of training camp is to prepare the entire team, which means there's gonna be a few quarterbacks, a few receivers, a few tight ends, a bunch of linemen on the roster, a bunch of backs. We don't know which guys are going to be healthy and ready to play Week 1 or not. We’ve got to do a good job of giving everybody an opportunity to learn and improve in camp.”
That's true in certain respects, but know this: if you know who your starter is, then that guy is getting a vast majority of the reps with the first team. The backup has to get his work in with the backups.
That may still happen — we're only eight days into this — but everything we've seen so far has been split fairly evenly, with Newton definitely being given deference.
That being said, it sure looks like the Patriots are trying to fast-track Jones to give him an opportunity to really compete. Will he get there? We'll have to see.
Belichick hates rookies, he's definitely going with Newton.
Answer: FALSE.
Probably the most telling snapshot of practice today was, following a Jones completion on a throwback screen, on the way to the next period, Belichick walked with him, for a time with his hand on his shoulder pads, and was teaching Jones.
"We were just talking about some fundamental stuff with the throw," Jones said. "How you have to lead the receiver whatever throw it is, and give them a chance to run with the ball. So it’s something I have to work on, on any route, you want to give them a catchable ball, regardless of the play. And, just going back, and working on your fundamentals, so getting those extra reps, whatever type of play it is, just get the extra reps and try and get the ball one foot in front of the numbers so he can go and run and turn. That was pretty much it.”
Belichick was not doing that with Jimmy Garoppolo at this stage, and he certainly wasn't doing it with Jarrett Stidham or Ryan Mallett. Belichick is involved with Jones. He would leave it all to McDaniels if Newton was definitely the starter.
You should be using the reported camp stats as a barometer of the day.
Answer: FALSE.
I think there's some value in them, but context is huge. Not all reps are created equally and to treat them all as such is, in my opinion, very misleading.
"The thing that you guys got to remember is this is practice, this is when you try new things, this is when you’re learning new plays, and there’s also different goals of every period, some periods it may seem like oh man no one completed a pass but if you’re going to the right place, and it’s a new play and you’ve got to work on the timing of the route, that’s what practice is for," said Brian Hoyer. "I don’t really follow the media very much but for us, it’s more about did you run the play correctly, did you go to the right area, you always want to complete the ball, that’s obviously the goal, but maybe you’re trying to hold a safety a certain way and now you’re throwing a ball blind, that’s what you have to do, when Devin McCourty's back there you can’t stare someone down, so you’re a little bit experimenting with things and the only chance to learn is on the practice field."
The Patriots' offense looks better with Mac Jones.
Answer: TRUE.
In the practice setting, especially with passing, that's absolutely true. But you also have to remember that Newton brings the whole package and the Patriots believe he can play winning football when he's surrounded by more talent, and he doesn't have to be Superman, which no one believes he is still capable of being.
But that only goes so far in the NFL. To move the ball and score a lot of points, you're going to have to pass on third down and drive quickly at the end of each half. You can't do that doing read option or on bubble screens.
The bad news for Newton is that Jones appears to be a sponge and is getting better, largely, each day and from rep to rep. The ball comes out much quicker and his decisions are better. If that continues, then Jones could win the job. But Newton is also getting more comfortable. There's a long way to go in this.