In previous seasons, this would be a W in the Patriots' bank before the game even kicked off considering:
- A slumping opponent — having lost two-straight, 4 of 5 and 6 of 8 — needing one more loss to be eliminated from playoff contention;
- An opponent led by a tenuous coach who may have lost the room and players might not want to play for anymore;
- An undisciplined team in all three phases of the game;
- Someone mouthing off and poking fun at the Patriots, which defensive coordinator Van Joesph did this week basically laughing at the Patriots' offense.
"I see an offense that's running the football well. It's a very conservative pass game -- lot of screens, all kind of screens. It's how a defensive guy would call offensive plays, right? 'Let's not turn the ball over, let's get 4 yards a play, and let's try to burn clock,'" Joseph told reporters. "That's what they're doing and that's what he's going to do on Monday night. He's going to be patient. Maybe take a shot from time to time. But for the most part, it's run game, it's quick game, and it's screens."
And then Joseph thought he was giving a compliment, but was actually further illustrating the issues with the Patriots' offense.
"It's scary when you watch the group because they have so much talent around Mac, and Mac's a good, young quarterback. He can process information quickly, the ball's out of his hands quickly. He's very, very smart," he said. "So you're kind of waiting for it explode, because they have so much talent on offense. But it's been run, quick game and it's been more screens. Hopefully they don't change that much Monday for us."
Wow. In the past, you could almost put it in the bank: Patriots 50, Cardinals 10 with a few eff you touchdowns.
But even the most ardent In Bill We Trust fan knows this team isn't close to the previous versions, and not just because TB12 is no longer here.
The Patriots are at a crossroads themselves. Upstairs at One Patriot Place, there's an emphasis on this game because if the Patriots can't win this game, especially in light of the comments and frustration from the players after the loss to the Bills, there is a fear of what might happen in the final four games. This game and what happens after is basically a litmus test on if Belichick still has control of this team. No one believes that's the case, but the proof will be there for all to see, starting tonight. If Belichick has lost the team, if the team falls flat on its face and closes with potentially seven-straight losses, all options are believed to be on the table. Even the unthinkable.
It doesn't help that the team's biggest corner (Jalen Mills), best receiver (Jakobi Meyers) and best right tackle (Isaiah Wynn) have been ruled out. But if the Patriots are still the Patriots and Belichick is still Belichick, this game should still be a layup.
A closer look at the matchup with coaches film and our game pick:
OVERALL DVOA: Cardinals 30th, Patriots 11th
OFFENSE
Cardinals DVOA: 29th overall, 28th pass, 27th rush
Patriots D: 3rd overall, 4th pass, 8th rush
DEFENSE
Cardinals DVOA: 26th overall, 25th pass, 21st rush
Patriots off: 25th overall, 22nd pass, 26th rush
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA
Patriots 12th, Bills 27th
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
DL Deatrich Wise vs. LG Cody Ford: The offensive line has been a huge issue for the Cardinals all season and left guard is the weakest spot. When Wise kicks inside in the subpackage, he and Daniel Ekuale should feast on whoever is out there (it could be a revolving door).
NT Davon Godchaux vs. C Billy Price: I could list all of the line spots for the Cardinals but we'll stop here. If Godchaux is the type of player Belichick thinks he is, he absolutely dominates the weak P rice.
WR DeVante Parker vs. CB Marco Wilson: Cardinals do a lot of zone blitzing and they don't play much man coverage outside of the red zone, so the cornerbacks lay off for the most part. This should let Parker both catch the ball underneath with the ability to break some tackles and make some plays over the top of the smaller Wilson.
Nickel Isaiah Simmons vs. anyone: Once a top 10 pick due to his athletic ability — you won't find many bigger and faster — the Cardinals have never figured out how to use him right (he'd be a great project for Belichick), and he blows assignments all the time. He plays everywhere from the slot to OLB to rush edge. But he's never assignment-sure.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
S Budda Baker vs. QB Mac Jones: If there's any player who can ruin this game for the Patriots, it's Baker. He's one of the smartest and best safeties in the game. He's not Ed Reed, but he's pretty freaking close. He's just a ballhawk and will be a factor. Have to account for him on every play.
QB Kyler Murray's legs vs. Patriots: Can't single out any one player because Murray is such a dynamic athlete, especially his legs, that it will truly take a team effort. The rush has to be perfect to keep him in the pocket, and if he breaks contain, the Patriots have to limit the damage.
WR DeAndre Hopkins vs. CB Jonathan Jones: He is still one of the best receivers in the game and is open even when he's covered. Jones struggled vs. Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, and this could be the same thing with the size disadvantage. Not having Jalen Mills hurts in this game.
DE JJ Watt vs. RT Yodny Cajuste: In prior years, the Patriots would have a sound plan to eliminate Watt. But this is a different regime and RT has been a huge issue.
GAME PLAN POINTS
1. Pound the rock: This is another game where not having a fullback hurts, but the Cardinals are light in the front and their run fits stink. The Patriots should be able to gash the Cardinals with Rhamondre Stevenson, and they can't abandon the run.
2. Take the checkdowns: The Cardinals play deep zone behind their many pressures so there is huge room to just check it down to the backs. Stevenson should have a huge receiving game.
3. Keep Murray in the pocket and get your hands up: Murray is tiny and doesn't read defenses all that well so if you keep him in the pocket and get him frustrated to the point he throws the ball up for grabs.
4. Get it to the fourth quarter: Kliff Kingsbury has a really good scheme to start the game, but the Cardinals always fall apart in the fourth quarter with turnovers and blown defensive assignments. Weather the storm early and they should be fine.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Patriots -2. O/U: 44
Bedard's record: 10-2 straight up, 9-3 vs. spread
If the Patriots can't answer the bell in this one, after Van Joseph's comments about Matt Patricia and the offense, and having lost two straight games, this team is utterly broken and hopeless. The issue is, it might be the point now on offense that the players don't really care and agree with Joseph, and wouldn't mind proving him right. It's that bad.
But, with the extra time to prepare, I have to think Belichick got heavily involved in the offensive gameplanning and they'll get off to a fast start. This is a matchup of two teams on precipice almost waiting to throw in the towel and start planning the offseason. I think the Patriots, with a defense that is much more assignment-sure, is the more proud team, will get off to a good start and watch the Cardinals implode.
Bedard's Pick: Patriots 24, Cardinals 20