Trust me, I didn't think I'd be writing this column at this point this season. Or maybe any season.
But after checking in with multiple sources around the team in the wake of Thursday's dispiriting home loss to the Bills, hearing the way they've been talking about Bill Belichick and his future with the Patriots — and how they're not saying certain things — I think it's fair to ask the following question:
Is Belichick's future with the Patriots possibly riding, in large part, on how the team performs on Monday night against the Cardinals?
I'm beginning to think it is.
Do I think that it will play out that way? We'll get to that.
The important thing to know is, why now for the Krafts? There are two reasons, with various offshoots. One has to do with the Patriots and Belichick's decisions, and the other is a matter of circumstances.
1. Belichick has, to this point, taken three major losses in the eyes of the Krafts: the pushing out of Tom Brady, not getting close to good enough production from the record 2021 free agency class (which was needed due to Belichick's poor drafting), and the regression of a possible young franchise QB in Mac Jones. All three are the direct result of Belichick's decisions and have led the team to the point no one thought was possible — two losing seasons in three years.
The situation with Brady could have been avoided years prior if Belichick just gave Brady the extension he wanted after the Falcons' Super Bowl. Belichick declined. Even with that blunder, Belichick could have saved face by giving Brady the contract he wanted entering his final season, and before his free agency. Brady would have taken it. Belichick declined once again.
And all Brady has done since leaving New England is continued to win: a Super Bowl title, a close divisional-round loss to the eventual champion Rams, and the Bucs are back in first place thanks to another dramatic comeback victory (trailing 16-3 with six minutes left).
Meanwhile, in the same week, the Krafts watched the coach (the one they made the highest-paid in pro sports) punt, at home, from their 46-yard line on 4th and 7 with 12:17 remaining trailing the Bills 24-7. If the Patriots went for it and kicked a field goal, they would have been in the same position as Brady's team. Belichick declined, saying that he was "trying to stay in the game." Brady is not only competing, but winning games. Kraft's team wasn't even competitive with the Buffalo Bills, a team they used to laugh at and Brady owned.
And to add insult to injury: Kraft's Patriots, who have lost their last five primetime games (including playoffs) by a combined score of 164-84, were flexed out of Sunday Night Football against the Raiders in favor of the Giants and Daniel Snyder's Commanders.
The Krafts understood the need to reset the team and the cap after Brady's departure for the 2020 season, and were on board with shelling out a record $160 million in guaranteed money in 2021 free agency — even though they know it was only needed due to Belichick's neglected drafts for multiple years — if they got bang for their buck.
A 10-7 record and playoff appearance was a good start, but while Matthew Judon has lived up to his price tag, have Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Davon Godchaux (questionable extension), Jalen Mills, Henry Anderson (gone), Raekwon McMillan (questionable extension) and Kyle Van Noy (released after one season)? Was the trade of Shaq Mason to Brady and the Bucs worth the compensation, drop in offensive line play, and $3.2 million dead cap hit (Patriots have $17.4 million in dead cap this year alone, bringing their three-year total to $84.7 million)?
Then there has been the well-documented regression of the Patriots' offense and quarterback Mac Jones — who Kraft is very fond of — from his promising rookie season under Josh McDaniels. The players are basically the same. The only thing that has changed is the coordinator and QB coach, and the results speak for themselves to this point. The unconventional decision to go with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in those spots was Belichick's alone.
The 2021 free agency class and the offense still have five games to rebound, to secure a playoff spot and possibly win a postseason game — which would be tangible progress for the Krafts. But it looks more likely the team will miss the playoffs than make it, which basically leaves the Arizona game (and probably Vegas) as a must-win, illustrating the importance of this one game to the team's prospects, and that of Belichick.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
2. Timing on possible successors may not get better than this for the Krafts.
Part of the argument in previously dismissing any chatter about the possible end of Belichick's tenure — and even Robert Kraft has said he hopes Belchick is coaching into his 80s — has been the legitimate question: "Well, who would you get that would be better?" In past years, it's been a valid point. But you can make the argument that the Krafts may not have a better candidate pool than they have right now. At least three very viable candidates are available, and that may not be the case a year from now: former Saints coach Sean Payton, former Patriots offensive coordinator and Texans head coach Bill O'Brien, and former Patriots defensive coordinator and Dolphins head coach Brian Flores. All three figure to be in the mix for other openings after this season.
Payton is still under contract with the Saints, so the Patriots would have to send draft pick compensation to New Orleans, which they did to great success with Belichick. O'Brien was mentioned in Seth Wickersham's book, It's Better To Be Feared, as a possible Belichick successor by Brady and Kraft:
"Ultimately, according to the book, Kraft, Brady and a few others discussed scenarios about who would replace Belichick. If offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left after the season to be a head coach elsewhere, New England could hire O'Brien and he could perhaps one day succeed Belichick."
Flores was a strong candidate for the Texans before his lawsuit against the NFL. With Lovie Smith floundering, perhaps that could be revisited. That would take Flores off the market.
Another possible timing factor in all this that can't be ignored: could the Krafts view ousting Belichick as a way to get what they always desired: Brady, who will be a free agent, ending his career in a Patriots uniform? It's impossible to imagine Brady returning to play for Belichick. But he was linked with Payton as a possible tandem for the Dolphins before Flores' lawsuit. And O'Brien and Brady obviously worked well together to the point Brady reportedly brought up O'Brien to the Krafts as a possible McDaniels/Belichick successor.
If you're the Krafts and Belichick posts a second losing season, do you want to possibly miss the boat on all those enticing succession options because, why, Belichick will set the NFL all-time wins record in a couple years? The six Super Bowl titles he won for this once hopeless franchise?
The latter is certainly a persuasive argument, but Belichick never kept players around for past performance. Should the coach be held to a different standard? How did hanging onto the past work out for the teams coached by Chuck Noll, Tom Landry and Don Shula at the end?
(Getty Images)
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Having said all of that — and it certainly makes sense if you're the Krafts — do I think it will come down to that? No, I don't. While the Cardinals are talented and dangerous, and in many ways a poor matchup for the Patriots, I expect Belichick's coaching and adjustments to deliver a win on Monday night heading into a showdown with McDaniels that is no longer must-see TV for NBC, apparently. A Patriots two-game West Coast triumph and strong finish is not out of the realm of possibility. Just one victory, after losing two straight, can change a lot for a team in the NFL.
I expect the Patriots to be competitive enough down the stretch, finishing either 8-9 or 9-8 (possibly good enough for a playoff spot while battling the underwhelming Jets and Chargers), for there to be a discussion between Belichick and Kraft after the season about the future. And I also expect Belichick, who at the end of the day is honest about his football team, to come ready to admit his errors with the coaching staff and to present a plan to rectify it (possibly O'Brien) and to talk about a succession plan for the first time.
But if the Patriots somehow lose to the Cardinals, I believe all options are on the table for the future of this franchise — even the previously unthinkable. That makes this game extremely important.