Bill Belichick is playing a dangerous game.
It's certainly not the first time, and he's racked up an impressive record in these kinds of circumstances over the last 20 years. But, as they often do, times change. Even — maybe especially — for aging legends.
This is a crucial point in Belichick's tenure. Obviously, at 70, he's close to the end. He's 24 victories shy of passing Don Shula for first place on the all-time wins list, and everyone would like to see him set the record standing on a Patriots sideline.
You might be a little surprised to know that when Shula set the record in 1993, it really wasn't all that big of a deal across the nation (I was a pretty big Dolphins fan at the time). Of course, things have changed in terms of how much the NFL is consumed across the country, but Shula didn't land on the cover of Sports Illustrated until a month later, as Sportsman Of The Year. No sign of the Dolphins on there, either.
That was Shula's first cover. His next one was two years almost to the day:
Life, and success in the NFL, comes at you fast. Shula would "retire" a month later under fire at 66.
Belichick staying on long enough to pass Shula's record — probably sometime in 2024, when Belichick would be 73 — has long seemed like a no-brainer. But is it?
Basically, the rest of the season will tell the tale. A victory on Sunday against the beat-up Jets could get things rolling in the right direction. Momentum has a way of building.
The Patriots, at 3-4, are already off to their worst start since 2002. They were also 3-4 in 2001. In '01 and '02, the Patriots responded with two-straight wins. These Patriots could do the same thing with the Jets and Colts up next (or more, the Jets at home is after the bye).
But a loss could send things spiraling.
A loss would give the Patriots their worst eight-game start since 2000 (2-6, on way to 2-8 and 5-11).
That's why it is so important for Belichick to get the train back on the rails. The entire team has issues — special teams continue to underwhelm, and the defense just made Justin Fields look like Lamar Jackson — but the drama on the offensive side of the ball must be quelled.
And that can only be done by Belichick. It's not a given he can solve this mess. In the past, he could grunt, lay down his law, and it would be over.
This will need a delicate touch. It's not black and white, or easy. Belichick's handling of Mac Jones against the Bears was already a sign of how badly this could go off the rails.
And the Krafts are watching.
Whether anyone chooses to believe it or not – we tried to warn you months ago — there is friction below the surface behind the scenes between Jones, offensive coordinator Matt Patricia and quarterbacks coach Joe Judge. Anyone who says differently is carrying water for the team.
Jones hasn't been on board with much on offense since Josh McDaniels left for Las Vegas — not the coaching choices, their changes to the system from Jones' rookie season, and the overall offensive approach. Many of Jones' veteran teammates share his concerns. And the coaches know it.
It didn't help that Bailey Zappe found success running a lot of the old scheme, with much less risk, against bad defenses.
Then Jones returns and he's immediately put back in shotgun, and his first pass attempt (negated by penalty) was a 20-yard deep play-action route – one of the toughest in football. Zappe's first pass attempt was a 5-yard hitch.
Then there were the playaction shot plays, on the same down from similar areas of the field. Jones' first one that counted, on his 15th play, was mundane. Zappe's had more flair than a TGI Friday's waitress, and the result was a wide-open touchdown for Jakobi Meyers. Those are facts. How they came about and why, there's never going to be a definitive answer.
It doesn't really matter. The bottom line is this: Belichick needs to get all the parties together and get them on the same, unified page. Belichick might not think it — and judging by the harsh words delivered by close friend Mike Lombardi (15-minute mark below), Belichick doesn't — but he needs Jones to succeed.
There might not be a bigger Jones fan in the building than Robert Kraft. Everyone remembers Kraft's stinging words at the league meetings about the current state of the team, which came off the top and unprompted.
"I'm a Patriot fan, big time, first. More than anything, it bothers me that we haven't been able to win a playoff game in the last three years," Kraft said. " ... I'm not happy that we haven't won a playoff game in three years. I think about that a lot."
But Kraft's words about Jones have largely been forgotten.
“These young quarterbacks — good ones — in the second year, have usually grown a great deal,” Kraft told reporters. “… I’m a big fan of Mac Jones. I think, I see how hard he works, and he wants everything to go right and he puts the time and energy — and his personality as a team guy. So, we have a chance. Because, without a good coach and a good quarterback, no matter how good the other players are, I don’t think you can win consistently. Hopefully, I believe we have both an outstanding coach and a good young prospect. ... So, I’m very high on him. I think we really, the staff did a great job drafting him. And we’re lucky to have him for our future, and this will be a good pick.”
The Krafts aren't dumb. They were as uncertain as anyone when Belichick decided to put Patricia and Judge in charge of the offense and Jones. But Belichick had more than earned the right to do that.
He just had to be right about it.
We'll see how things play out, but it's obvious to anyone and everyone that Jones has regressed badly in his second season, to this point. Because Belichick is a sacred cow to many, Jones has gotten way more criticism than most second-year, first-round quarterbacks — especially those that actually showed promise as rookies.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
A lot has been made — in hindsight mind you, not in real-time — of how Jones struggled down the stretch of his rookie season. Of course, this is the hyperbole generated by the bottom-line people who refuse to look at context, think QB wins are a real thing, or even history.
Mac Jones is 2-7 in his last nine starts? Oh, I'm sorry, I forgot that Jones suited up on defense and couldn't get off the field against the Colts, Bills, Tua (twice), and the Ravens. No talk about Matthew Judon disappearing at the end of the season? Just Jones. Let's just forget that for three years running the Patriots have finished the season 2-4, 1-3 and 1-4 (4-11) with three different quarterbacks, including Brady.
Brady seemed to rebound pretty well in his first season out of New England. But only Jones is to blame for last season's slide. Maybe, just maybe, the Patriots have not been good enough, and that has continued into this season.
He should have put up more points. Points scored by the Brady-led Patriots down the stretch of '01: 12, 20, 38, 16, 24, 20.
How on Earth did the Patriots win anything averaging 21.6 points per game down the stretch? That's right ... those were great teams. That's the whole point of football.
What about Jones' interceptions ... 13 in his last nine starts (1.4 per game). Yes, that's a lot and something that needs to be corrected – more conservative playcalling and better coaching would help.
How did Brady finish his rookie season? Oh, right, he didn't play. What about his second season, on his way to winning a Super Bowl and becoming The GOAT? Brady threw six interceptions in five games (1.2) from Week 13 through the wild-card win over the Raiders.
In the first nine games of his second season, on the way to a Super Bowl appearance, Joe Burrow threw 12 interceptions (1.3). And why do I have a sneaking suspicion that if Jones was sacked as much as Burrow has been, it would be Jones taking the brunt of the criticism, and not the coaching and personnel?
That's the way it goes when you play for Belichick, especially now that Brady has left. Fans have either drifted away from the Patriots with Brady, or you Believe in Bill. So if things go wrong, they can't be Belichick's fault. What else would they be able to believe in?
Fortunately, the Krafts have no such trouble with allegiances. They owned this team before Belichick, and they'll own it long after he's gone. The Krafts' only allegiance is to the Patriots and their brand. And not only are their eyes wide open, but they talk to people who know what's going on behind the scenes — and know exactly where the blame lies. Let's just say a lot more people believe Jones is a franchise quarterback in training, than Patricia and Judge are the next great offensive coaches.
That's why if things go poorly here for the Patriots, there is a chance this might not end well for Belichick. If he keeps yo-yo'ing Jones and Zappe, and Zappe isn't a latter-day Brady, they are going to want answers on why yet another asset has been squandered later in Belichick's tenure.
The bottom line is this: Jones is by far the best quarterback for the Patriots on the field. It is his coaches' jobs to get him to play his best, through gameplanning and playcalling. That should be their only focus – not proving their worth by one-upping McDaniels in obscure statistics, or that their summer of outside zone and other grand ideas was really, really worth it. What Belichick should be doing is directing Patricia and Judge to make sure Jones is at his best, because their jobs should depend on it.
There should be doubts that is happening. Belichick failing this week to clearly declare Jones the undisputed QB of this team – like he did with Cam Newton — looks like Belichick defending his hand-picked, unconventional coaches instead of doing what's best for this team right now.
But time will tell if Belichick still has the right touch. These next three games are crucial. Not only for this team, but Belichick as well.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Tough to see Brady have to go through this kind of week, on the field with a third-straight loss and off it with the announcement of his divorce. There's so much wrong in Tampa right now — the effort can definitely be questioned on defense – that a trade out by Tuesday's deadline might be the best-case scenario. The 49ers should make it happen.
2. Didn't have time to do a complete Jets breakdown this week, but here's what you need to know about the offense: they are a mess with injuries to three starters on the offensive line (latest was their best one, G/T Alijah Vera-Tucker), RB Breece Hall and WR Corey Davis. The Patriots, especially after last week's embarrassing performance, should have no trouble stopping Zach Wilson and the Jets — but we thought that about the Bears and Justin Fields, and Wilson is a more accurate Fields (when he's not scared of the rush and running into trouble).
3. The Jets' defense is a big challenge. This is a really bad week to not have David Andrews (concussion) having to deal with excellent DT Quinnen Williams, and DE/DT John Franklin-Meyers, who is annually one of my favorite players to watch on film. Add in DEs Shaq Lawson and Bryce Huff, and the Jets are a bear to deal with up front. They also have a lot of speed, especially at linebacker, and outside corners Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, and SS Jordan Whitehead are very good. Slot Michael Carter II and FS Lamarcus Joyner are the weak spots.
4. I don't really expect the Patriots' defense to have many issues, and they might have to get a few turnovers. But this is a huge, huge test for the offensive line and their coach, Patricia (how many hats does this guy wear?). In years past, I would feel very confident that the Patriots would have a good plan to use the Jets' aggressiveness against them with draws, screens and a few other techniques, but that has yet to be proven this year. This game will solely come down to the Patriots' line controlling the line of scrimmage. If they can do that, they will win.
5. Will it happen? I think this is going to be a very close game, and low-scoring. I'm hopeful that coming off a loss, and the Jets riding high at a fraudulent 5-2 (QBs beaten: Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, Skylar Thompson and Brett Rypien), the Patriots will respond to adversity well and get me back on the winning side.
BetOnline.ag line: Patriots -2.5, 40 o/u.
Bedard's Pick (6-1, 6-1 vs. spread): Patriots 17, Jets 13.