This can't be it.
If Scott Zolak is to be believed, and he talks to a lot of people around the team, this is his anticipated Patriots coaching staff with fitting some puzzle pieces:
Offensive coordinator: None, with Bill Belichick influence.
Playcaller: Matt Patricia.
QBs coach: Nick Caley (formerly tight ends)
WRs coach: Troy Brown
TEs coach: Joe Judge
RBs coach: Vinnie Sunseri
OL coach: Patricia/Billy Yates
Some of this, I don't have an issue with.
Brown is a good coach, has learned and is ready. Caley deserved to be elevated, he was next in line (which is why Mick Lombardi left). Judge, even though his tenure as special teams coordinator/receivers coach was widely viewed internally as a disaster for Tom Brady and the receivers, is a good coach and does so at just about any position. Don't love replacing one of the best position coaches on the team (Ivan Fears ... Dante Scarnecchia would be the other) with a relative rookie in Sunseri, but running backs is usually an entry-level spot. Don't love the lack of experience at offensive line, especially when the tackles need a lot of help, but Yates has some experience.
These are all good coaches. Some of them are green in their roles, but sometimes that happens.
I just don't like the drop-off from Josh McDaniels, and the lack of succession planning. We've already pointed this out as far as personnel — the Patriots let Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman (among others) walk/retire and didn't even attempt to have someone ready to go when that was a staple for years — and how it helped lead them into mediocrity. It also coincided with the Belichick quote, via Urban Meyer: "At this point in my career, I want to coach guys I like. I want to coach guys I want to be around and that's it, and I'm not going to coach anybody else."
But this has also happened on the coaching side — and personnel, with the sudden promotion of Matt Groh to director of player personnel. It didn't need to be this way, and that's where I fault Belichick for leaving his offensive staffing short around his promising young QB.
Belichick could have had real plans to replace Brady, Gronkowski, Edelman, McDaniels and Dave Ziegler, but Belichick chose not to. If Belichick was surprised by McDaniels' departure, then he wasn't talking to the former offensive coordinator or willfully ignoring the possibility. McDaniels has been trying to leave since before the Colts' offer, and he didn't really take himself off the market. Once QB coach Jerry Schlupinski (my preferred option at QB coach) left to follow Judge to the Giants, why didn't the Patriots promote Caley then to work with the QBs?
When McDaniels (after Charlie Weis) and O'Brien (after McDaniels) each elevated to playcaller, they had multiple years as QB coach. The Patriots could have done that with Caley and didn't. That would have helped with the continuity and comfort of Mac Jones. Now it's sure to be a convoluted mess for the second-year QB.
The job of director of player personnel deals equally with the draft (college scouting) and pro personnel. Scott Pioli, Nick Caserio and Ziegler each had multiple years in pro personnel before ascending. I'm sure Groh dabbled in pro personnel in his time here, but on paper, Groh has zero pro personnel experience — he was college scouting director last year, national college scout two years previous, and started as an area scout. Why wasn't he put in a pro personnel role last year? Why not keep the status quo and promote Eliot Wolf, who has way more experience than anyone else in personnel? (It's purely because of seniority with the Patriots, that's why.)
If you're still blindly in the "In Bill We Trust" camp despite being 19-22 since December 2019, then you're willfully ignoring the evidence that says Belichick is no longer performing his duties in the same manner that allowed the Patriots to become the most impressive dynasty ever in pro football history (along with no longer having the QB). He is no longer playing chess when everyone else is playing checkers. He's playing his own game out of comfort.
There's no way Belichick 15 years ago would have made these same staffing choices. That Belichick would have gotten O'Brien to come back just like McDaniels did. Old Belichick would have brought Adam Gase into the fold to help with his young QB. He would have made it enticing for Ziegler to stay, like he did Pioli with a grand title of VP of player personnel that he hasn't given out in years. Instead, no one seemingly wants to stay here anymore with the end of the regime coming rapidly.
Why does this matter so much? Because position coaches are important. They might get away with this for a year or so, but at some point, the bills are going to come due, like the Patriots' cap mess in 2020 (and this offseason).
There seems to be some hangover the first season after a coach leaves. The year after Dante Scarnecchia retired both times, the Patriots fared well on the line in '14 and '20. But in those second seasons, it devolved into a mess the longer Scar's teachings were removed. The QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs will be ok this first season. But the following year, when everything isn't new and as simple, and players need to be pushed, it could be rough.
I want to believe this isn't over, that Belichick will finally realize that an O'Brien and/or Gase would save Jones and the offense — it's not like the defense and special teams are in great shape and can be neglected by the HC — a lot of unnecessary pain. But the longer this goes on, and Indianapolis is sort of the alarm clock, the odds become more remote.
So the Patriots could very well slap it together with the offensive coaching staff, to go along with the defense and special teams still a muddled and ineffective mess when it really matters. Toss an inexperienced player personnel situation on top of it, and these are no longer The Great, Feared Patriots. They seem as listless and problematic as any other team.