For a very long time, the Patriots were like a machine when it came to personnel.
It wasn't perfect and it didn't always work out this way, but they were pretty darn good at it.
For years, it was as if you could set your watch by it. The Patriots had an ascending player who was headed toward free agency, they would have a young replacement who had been developed ready to step in.
Bill Belichick knew Ty Law's contract would be an issue at some point. Asante Samuel was drafted and ascended in '03 making Law expendable the '05 offseason.
Rodney Harrison was getting up there, Brandon Meriweather was drafted in '07, Harrison was done in '08 and Meriweather took over for good in '09.
Tedy Bruschi was nearing the end, Jerod Mayo was drafted 10th overall in '08 and that was Bruschi's final season.
Matt Light's final season was 2011. Nate Solder was drafted in the first round that year to play right tackle, and then took over at LT in '12.
Wes Welker's contract was going to be an issue at some point. Julian Edelman, an UDFA in '09, was slowly brought along to the point the team was ready to move on from Welker in '12 with Edelman, but he was injured and Welker retained his job. In the offseason, the Patriots quickly moved on with Danny Amendola, but Edelman eventually took the job and never let it go.
Kevin Faulk's final season was '11. Danny Woodhead was brought aboard in '10. Shane Vereen was drafted in '11, sat a year and took over in '12. James White was drafted in '14, sat and was ready to take over in '15 when Vereen left in free agency.
Everyone knew Tom Brady's age and contract situation in 2014, so the Patriots drafted Jimmy Garoppolo.
There are surely a million more examples of the Patriots doing this for many years. The draft and develop cycle with the Patriots with so predictable, that's when I started color-coding contracts on the depth chart heading into the offseason.
So-and-so is coming up on a contract year in another season. The Patriots will want to give themselves options as leverage, so expect them to draft a player there or sign an under-the-radar player in free agency.
But then, around 2015-ish, The Succession Plans suddenly stopped.
If you want a big clue for why the Patriots have slumped to 10-16 since Thanksgiving of 2019, look at what they've done at key spots in recent years:
Quarterback
Situation: Patriots were wisely ahead of the curve in the drafting and development of Garoppolo, but Brady won the age battle and the backup was traded at the deadline in 2017.
Moves: That offseason, the Patriots did not trade or draft another developmental QB.
Aftermath: After Brady moved on in 2020, Jarrett Stidham was not ready in his second season, Cam Newton was the last QB available and he was gone after a 7-9 season. Patriots had to rely on rookie Mac Jones in 2021.
Tight end
Situation: Everyone knew Rob Gronkowski was coming to the end and an injury risk well before his final 2018 season.
Moves: Patriots drafted a sixth-round TE in '15 (AJ Derby), didn't take one in '16 or '17, took Ryan Izzo in the 7th in '18.
Aftermath: Patriots were in dire straights in '20, so they traded up for two in the third round (Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene). Neither showed any promise, so in '21 the Patriots shelled out top-of-the-market money for free agents Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry.
Slot receiver
Situation: Julian Edelman was having growing injury issues with every season.
Moves: Braxton Berrios was drafted in '18 but released. Gunner Olszewski signed as an undrafted free agent in '19 but has shown limited receiver upside.
Aftermath: Jakobi Meyers is the slot receiver, and he's a good player, but he doesn't have close to the quickness needed. Patriots may have to make a trade here, or sign someone in the offseason.
Boundary receiver
Situation: Patriots have long had to find veteran receivers due to draft woes.
Moves: Tried in the first round with N'Keal Harry in '19/
Aftermath: Had to overpay for Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne this offseason, but both could very well work out. It's early. Still, lack of productive player on rookie deal hurts.
Interior defensive line
Situation: Malcom Brown was not going to be re-signed as a free agent in '18 if he got a good offer.
Moves: Patriots struck gold with Lawrence Guy in free agency in '17, but did little else via the draft as far as nose tackle.
Aftermath: This offseason, with nothing in the pipes in the interior, the Patriots had to overpay for Davon Godchaux, Henry Anderson and Guy.
Edge
Situation: Rob Ninkovich was nearing the end of his career.
Moves: Drafted Chase Winovich in '19 and Anfernee Jennings in '20, but neither developed quickly.
Aftermath: Patriots played with veteran retreads like John Simon for a while, had to overpay for Matthew Judon in free agency and bring Kyle Van Noy back.
WHAT'S NEXT?
The Patriots have several key positions getting older or set to be free agents after the season, and there are no ready replacements:
Devin McCourty: Myles Bryant only option right now.
Trent Brown: Possibly Justin Herron or Yodny Cajuste. Patriots thought they were thin so they signed Isaiah Wynn to a fifth-year option. If they had a player ready, they might not have done that.
Dont'a Hightower: No one ready. Cam McGrone will be coming back from ACL.
JC Jackson: Patriots will have to overpay in either an extension or the franchise tag.
Adrian Phillips: Set here with Kyle Dugger but they may overpay to retain. Good player.
James White: Unless JJ Taylor is ready, the pass back succession line ends here (it did, really, this offseason with having to pay to bring him back).
Ja'Whaun Bentley/Jamie Collins: See Hightower.
WHY DID THINGS SUDDENLY CHANGE?
No one really knows what happened but here's one line of thought: Right around that time, Belichick shifted his philosophy on players.
In April of 2017, Urban Meyer introduced Belichick at a football clinic and shared a story.
"I'm always amazed how he takes the non-stars and makes them stars," Meyer said while introducing Belichick at an Ohio State football clinic in April (via landof10.com). "He takes these players that you haven't really heard much about and all of a sudden they're making great plays in the biggest games of the year.
"I started asking him about it and he made this point to me, and I shared this with our team. He said: 'At this point in my career, I want to coach guys I like. I want to coach guys I want to be around and that's it, and I'm not going to coach anybody else.'"
It's unlikely that discussion happened that weekend between the two colleagues. That would mean they discussed it in either '15 or, more likely, '16 as the Patriots were on their way to another Super Bowl title.
In other words, Belichick started becoming more sentimental with his most coachable players. Players that, in the past, Belichick easily and quickly would have moved on from, were retained, some given contract extensions that didn't make sense (Rex Burkhead, Deatrich Wise), and he overpaid to retain some (Vince Wilfork, Devin McCourty).
Certainly those types of players have value, but they also become older, more expensive and injury-prone. It's how you get a roster/cap reset year like 2020, and expensive in 2021.
Sometimes it works (the 2018 miraculous Super Bowl run), but more often than not it doesn't.
That's where the Patriots find themselves now.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. If you were appalled by Urban Meyer's antics in his Columbus bar, you should spend some time at the Prime 47 steakhouse in Indianapolis during the scouting combine. NFL coaches, even those married ... not exactly known to be well-behaved, even head coaches. That wasn't the real problem. The issue was Meyer not traveling back with the team. Unless there's a serious personal issue or the team is heading into a bye week with no meetings back at home, that is virtually unheard of. Meyer was hired to build a culture, needing everyone all-in. Unless Jaguars start to win, this will be hard for him to overcome and he might not last the season.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo's injury is another example of how even if your team acquires him in the offseason, you have to have a real alternative.
3. Speaking of that, Trey Lance has not looked ready to start games. We'll see what kind of wizard Kyle Shanahan this week.
4. Jon Gruden's explanation of the DeMaurice Smith email — "Dumboriss Smith has lips the size of michellin [sic] tires" — might have worse than the email. Gruden said he often says people have "rubber lips" when they lie. Ok, sure. He's going to have issues with his players. If they don't continue to win, this could also be a big issue.
5. The Bills can earn some wide respect by beating the Chiefs on Sunday night. But make no mistake, the Chiefs' defense is awful this season. They have serious issues there.