I've seen it happen too many times.
Over the last 20 years of covering the NFL, the vast majority of seasons ends with observers of each team saying to themselves, "Well, that was a fitting end for this group." Basically, your final self is who you have previously revealed yourself to be, especially when the stress and stakes are the highest in the postseason.
Is it possible to have an against-character game and for things to suddenly just come together at the same time? Absolutely. Many of the Patriots' most painful defeats came as a result of that. Outside the first Super Bowl, can't think of many times the Patriots suddenly came out of nowhere to win a big game — they always had Tom Brady, were always the best-coached team with Bill Belichick.
Who you think these 2021 Patriots are, depends on your outlook.
If you're an optimist, you're hoping the Patriots recapture how they competed well in early losses to the Bucs and Cowboys, and how they rolled at times during the seven-game win streak. You probably also believe the bye week screwed up some sort of rhythm, instead of an easy schedule just getting harder. That can come back when they're focused on one game, and it's win or go home.
I totally get feeling that. I'm not going to argue with that. There's certainly a chance things work out that way tonight in Buffalo.
I just think there's way too much information stacked up on the other side of the ledger that points to a clear Bills victory. The Patriots' only hope for a victory is if Josh Allen is who I believe him to be — an uber-talented player who will fail in the biggest games (the last Bills' victory was more about the Patriots' inept defense than Allen) and make crushing mistakes. I don't think he's past being that person, but he's past being him if you don't do certain things.
So, in a way, I guess I can't lose tonight. If the Patriots pull the upset, it's because Allen again showed he's not a great quarterback. If the Bills win, it's because everything we've seen over the last month was a huge flashing billboard of something being wrong with this team, and this was just confirmation. It is what it is.
I just think it would take a near-perfect game by the Patriots to pull this upset — if what they've put on film and the field this season is who they are, and it usually is.
1. Patriots can't put Allen in a box.
To get Allen to give you the game, and this is the biggest factor in the game, you need certain things to happen:
- You have to get him trailing and desperate;
- You have to squeeze the pocket with discipline and keep him in the pocket;
- You have to have an answer for his designed runs;
- You have to man cover like crazy and with physicality to make Allen get off his first read and start running around.
I don't think the Patriots can do any of this consistently. I don't see the Patriots grabbing a two-score lead at any point, unless Bill Belichick finally says, 'Screw it, let's play aggressive on both sides, it's win or go home.' Belichick is much more likely to try to make this a one-score game in the fourth quarter and hope Allen gets chokey.
The Patriots' rush discipline and run defense has largely been horrible this entire season. Allen scrambling past Matthew Judon like Tua Tagovailoa last week would be THE fitting end to this Patriots season.
The Patriots, after shipping out Stephon Gilmore and injuries to Jonathan Jones and now Jalen Mills (Covid), are now going with a CB crew of: JC Jackson, Myles Bryant, Joejuan Williams, Justin Bethel, D’Angelo Ross and De’Vante Bausby.
Does anyone truly think Belichick is going to suddenly say, "Yeah, let's go man to man all game with Jackson on Stefon Diggs, Bryant on Beasley, Williams on Gabriel Davis, Ross on McKenzie?" The Patriots will do it at times as they spin the dial, but Belichick is not going to do that a lot until it's desperation.
Look, Allen wants to give you the ball. In four career postseason games, Allen has seven turnover-worthy pass plays and four fumbles. That's nearly three huge opportunities to turn the game around each time Allen takes the field in the postseason. Allen absolutely choked in both the divisional and AFC Championship Game last year. He psyches himself out. That will happen.
I just don't think the Patriots are talented enough to take advantage. If the Bills spread things out again, the Patriots don't have enough options to counter that. They can't match up. They need Allen to just give them the ball once or twice. I don't think they have enough speed and ability to force him into that.
2. The cold weather absolutely favors the Bills.
Everyone wants to make a big deal about Allen and the cold weather ... yet no one talks about how Mac Jones has never been in this spot before and has by far the worse physical tools.
The coldest game I ever covered was the 2007 NFC Championship Game at Lambeau, Giants at Packers. It made tonight's forecast look balmy.
Both teams continued to throw the ball, and while neither Eli Manning nor Brett Favre was great in this game, the coaches — even Tom Coughlin — were not shy about airing it out in worse conditions.
Favre, who was much older and there were many questions about him playing in the cold at that stage, obviously had the two interceptions. The Giants won that game because they ran way more plays (81 to 49) and were able to stay balanced.
Which team tonight has a chance to stay balanced and on the field more? To me, it's clearly the Bills due to Allen's legs. The Patriots really don't have a guy to match up with him. Jamie Collins got faked out on a fourth down. Dugger will probably be against Dawson Knox. Adrian Phillips is too small. Maybe McCourty, but who's playing deep safety, Bryant? Maybe. Judon is too slow and undisciplined. Maybe Josh Uche can do it and be the "secret weapon" after being in mothballs for two years.
Are the Patriots going to let Jones throw 30 times if they run it 30? Doubtful. I have no doubt the Patriots can be the better running team, but you need the QB element to keep the opponent guessing. Jones has yet to show me he can do that for that 60 minutes in a big spot. I know Allen is going to do damage at some point in the passing game.
3. Jones and his weapons aren't ready for this spot.
It's been a very nice rookie season for Jones and, for the most part, the offensive free agents signed in the offseason — unless you thought this was fantasy football and guys would just plug and play and be great.
But there's a big difference from being successful during the regular season against largely subpar teams, and what they are about to encounter on the road. Patriots have faced four playoff teams this year and are 2-3 in those games, with the wins coming against a decimated Titans team and the first Bills game. And in the two real road environments against playoff-caliber teams, the Colts and Dolphins, the Patriots made a ton of miscues.
To win as an underdog on the road, the QB basically has to play flawless and Jones has not been that player down the stretch in big games for this team — before you even get into the weather. If a good team takes Hunter Henry away, the Patriots have a hard time moving the ball. Plus, the weather is going to affect Jones much more than Allen, who is strong, well-built and already possesses a world-class arm. If the cold diminishes his physical ability, say, 25 percent, he's still more talented than most NFL QBs. If Jones is affected the same way, Jones is left with a peashooter.
In a best-case scenario, the Patriots run the ball really well and Jones hits a few big shot plays to shake up the Bills. Could happen, I just doubt it. Buffalo is too good at safety to let that happen with enough consistency.
I still think this has been a very successful Year 1 for Jones and the free-agent additions. You never do all that in the offseason and hit in Year 1. Something to build off of for next season.
4. The Patriots just aren't as talented.
Just over a month ago, I looked at the two rosters and concluded they were now about even after the one-year rebuild.
After an entire season, I'd like a re-vote.
Positions I would swing back to the Bills now, especially since the first matchup:
No. 2 boundary WR ... Bourne has not come on like I thought he would.
Slot ... McKenzie and Beasley both make bigger plays than Meyers.
TE2 ... it's now even — at best with Jonnu Smith being a non-factor.
LT ... Dion Dawkins is way better than Wynn — who isn't even playing.
LG ... Even now.
So now it's 8-3-2 Bills on offense.
Edge1 is now even after Judon's month.
DT goes to Bills with Lawrence Guy being diminished.
MLB is even now.
Slot goes to the Bills with Taron Johnson.
Defense is now 9-1-2. Only a healthy Christian Barmore is the Patriots' advantage at sub rusher.
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GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Bills -4.5, o/u 43.5
You combine all that and more, and the Bills have many more avenues to win this game. The Patriots basically have one — play mistake-free football and hope Josh Allen is going to give them the game. While I would love to see that, I just don't think the Patriots have the ability on defense to do that. It's much more likely the Bills go up and down the field freely again. In the cold, I don't think the Patriots can match that. They would need an all-world rushing game (Rhamondre Stevenson feels primed for that).
The Patriots have been a nice story and the arrow overall is pointing up. But in the last month, they have revealed their true selves. They make too many mistakes overall, and the defense lacks the talent and discipline of previous teams to pull off a game like this. Allen would have to completely implode, and the Patriots play perfect football to this to end in an upset.
Neither of those things has happened this season in a big spot, so why should it happen now?
The Patriots are who they have shown themselves to be.
BILLS 27, PATRIOTS 17.
