Apologies for the later posting — we were affected by a lengthy internet outage.
_______________________________
About a year ago, we took a look at where the Patriots stood in relation to the reigning AFC East champions in regards to personnel, and the picture was not pretty.
(Due to our system conversion, I can't link to the previous articles.)
Sure, it’s obvious for everyone to see that the Bills are more talented on offense. The more startling thing comes when you really break it down: the Patriots are way behind, specifically at the skill positions where points come from (a great offensive line can really only do so much) and there’s little hope on the roster for them to make up much ground next year. So it’s a good thing the Patriots have some $80 million in cap space, because Bill Belichick is going to need it ... if he even wants to spend it on offense, where he has been going bargain-basement shopping for years.
In the words of Lee Corso ... "not so fast my friend."
While the Patriots still lag behind the Bills in terms of offensive skill personnel, New England has indeed closed the personnel gap in a historic offseason for Belichick.
How much? Let's take a look position by position:
OFFENSE
QB1
Mac Jones has had a very good rookie season and is a strong contender for offensive rookie of the year depending on how he finishes down the stretch in these showcase games. Josh Allen is among the most talented players ever at the position, but he is not a great QB. Even so, he can do things Jones simply can't.
Advantage: Bills.
RB1
Devin Singletary is a functional back in an offense that doesn't run the ball very well. The duo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson has become a powerhouse and both can kill a defense in a variety of ways.
Advantage: Patriots.
RB - Pass
Long dominated by James White, it's impossible to say whether or not he'll ever be back at the same level — if he continues to play football at all. Brandon Bolden is a good player and gets you through, but not dynamic. Matt Brieda could be a key player for the Bills down the stretch and has really been a spark for them.
Advantage: Bills.
WR - Boundary
Stefon Diggs would win a lot of contests against any receivers in the league. We'll say this about Nelson Agholor — he's a lot better than what the Patriots have had at this spot and seems to be close to a breakout.
Advantage: Bills.
WR - No. 2 boundary
This is a bit of an upset but Emmanuel Sanders is fading a bit and Kendrick Bourne is coming on strong. This is a big upgrade from a year ago for the Patriots.
Advantage: Patriots.
WR - Slot
Cole Beasley hasn't stayed at his same level as a year ago, and Jakobi Meyers is solid and a slight upgrade to where Julian Edelman was last year, but Beasley is still better in a big spot
Advantage: Bills.
TE1
Another spot where the Patriots have upgraded big time and he's very close between Dawson Knox and Hunter Henry. Knox got knocked a little bit when he broke his hand, but when healthy he's very good. Henry is better in the red zone. This is very, very close. We're giving Knox the slight edge because he's better over the entire field, and the QB passer rating is higher to him.
Advantage: Bills.
TE2
A bit unfair because the Bills don't really use a second tight end and Jonnu Smith hasn't played to his hefty contract, but he does have talent. Just may be a bit delayed hitting.
Advantage: Patriots.
LT
Dion Dawkins is a big, powerful dude but he lacks top-end athleticism. Isaiah Wynn has really good feet but not a lot of power. We'll let PFF break this tie.
Advantage: Patriots.
LG
The Bills could be getting Jon Feliciano back this week and he's better than what they have but ... psst, he's really not that good. Mike Onwenu didn't grab LG ... both he and Ted Karras are better than Feliciano.
Advantage: Patriots.
C
David Andrews over Mitch Morse ... it's not even close.
Advantage: Patriots.
RG
Shaq Mason over Darryl Williams in a rout.
Advantage: Patriots.
RT
A healthy Trent Brown is better than Cody Ford or promising rookie Spencer Brown.
Advantage: Patriots.
OFFENSE TOTALS: PATRIOTS 8, BILLS 5 — OFFENSIVE LINE SWEEP FOR NEW ENGLAND
__________________________________
DEFENSE
EDGE1
Jerry Hughes is an old reliable who is usually a pain to the Patriots. The Bills have yet to get their first on-field look at Matthew Judon — who has completely changed the Patriots' front — and they could be in for a very rude awakening.
Advantage: Patriots.
EDGE2
Hard to pin down who the Patriots have in this spot — it's Kyle Van Noy or Dont'a Hightower depending on the matchup. Shame this never became Josh Uche or Chase Winovich. Bills now have very promising first-round pick Gregory Rosseau, who is a physical freak. Will be interesting to see how he does against the Patriots, but we're giving him the edge for now. He's pretty good.
Advantage: Bills.
Nose tackle
When healthy, Star Lotulelei makes a huge difference for this defense. When the Patriots get good play from Davon Godchaux/Carl Davis, they are a tough defense to run on. They have been just way too inconsistent.
Advantage: Bills.
Defensive tackle
Ed Oliver is a beast who will make some unbelievable plays, but he's not consistent. Lawrence Guy, after a slow start, is still the model of consistency.
Advantage: Patriots.
DT - Pass rusher
Vernon Butler is a darn good player who can line up anywhere. But Christian Barmore is the younger, more talented version — and he's barely scratched the surface. Butler would beat a lot of people. That's how good Barmore has been. This could be his coming out game on the national stage.
Advantage: Patriots.
MLB
A lot of people love Tremaine Edmunds, but I just don't see it — especially against the Patriots. I'm still taking Dont'a Hightower even if he is more inconsistent.
Advantage: Patriots.
ILB
Matt Milano is small, quick and makes plays in the passing game. He also gets hurt a lot. Ja'Whaun Bentley has rebounded this season and is a good player, but with a limited ceiling.
Advantage: Bills.
CB1
He won't be out there on Monday after tearing his ACL, but Tre'Davious White is clearly better than JC Jackson because the entire Bills defense revolves around him — Jackson is merely a part in a zone-based defense. It's close, but for now White still rules this division.
Advantage: Bills.
CB2
Jalen Mills has done well this season, but Levi Wallace is one of the best No. 2 corners in the league.
Advantage: Bills.
Slot
We're still counting Jonathan Jones here (although Myles Bryant has been very good). Taron Johnson is right there with Jones among the top slot corners in the league. This is very, very close. Johnson may be the next top guy, but for now, we're still giving it to Jones.
Advantage: Patriots.
Safeties
Man oh man. These two safeties spots are filled with great players from both teams — Devin McCourty and Adrian Phillips (toss in Kyle Dugger as well) vs. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. It simply doesn't get any better than that. Both are great for their schemes. We're giving the Bills a slight edge because of their youth ... McCourty has lost a step. He's still damn good.
Advantage: Bills (counted twice).
DEFENSE TOTALS: BILLS 7, PATRIOTS 5.
TEAM TOTALS: PATRIOTS 13, BILLS 12.
One offseason, the Patriots have caught back up to the Bills and have upside at several spots (including quarterback). Add in the Patriots' clear advantage on special teams and you can see why, in my opinion, I'd take the Patriots on a neutral field (and why the odds are strong we're headed toward a split this season among these two teams).
Have to hand it to Belichick. He saw his team get swept by the Bills last year and he was able catch his team back up in one offseason with help through free agency and the draft.
No wonder Bills fans are so ticked off.
________________________________
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. There's been a lot of talk about how there aren't many top QB prospects in this draft, but Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett is generating a lot of heat in NFL front offices. The word is Pickett has all the intangibles you're looking for — similar to Mac Jones — but in a better physical package.
2. Speaking of Pickett and Pittsburgh, it will be interesting to see what the Steelers do this offseason. Ben Roethlisberger has reportedly been telling people privately this will be his final season. With Pickett playing in the same stadium, it brings back memories of the 1983 NFL draft. The Steelers passed on Dan Marino, Pitt's QB, due to off-field concerns. Will they pass on another potential hometown hero again?
3. According to NFL.com, the NFL salary cap is expected to increase by about $25 million to $208.2 million for 2022. That's good news for the Patriots, who were going to be up against it after the spending spree this offseason. Right now. OverTheCap.com has the Patriots with $22,708,942 in effective cap space — slightly better than middle of the pack.
4. Would not be a shock to see Gardner Minshew light it up today for the Eagles with Jalen Hurts out. According to one close observer of the Eagles, Hurts has been "terrible" this season and the team is moving toward finding other options for next season.
5. The Antonio Brown situation in Tampa will tell us once and for all how great Tom Brady's power is there. Bruce Arians has said in the past that if Brown screws up just one time, he would be gone. Brady was not happy that the Patriots moved on from Brown so quickly when he was with the Patriots, and moved quickly to add him to the Bucs. If Brady has his way, there's no way Brown is released by the Bucs. Brady really only trusts Rob Gronkowski and Brown in that offense. Brady doesn't beat the Patriots without Brown in that game back in October.